Seven Springs, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seven Springs, PA

April 14, 2024 11:22 PM EDT (03:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM
Moonrise 9:50 AM   Moonset 1:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seven Springs, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 150309 AAA AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1109 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area tonight with a cold front. Some storms could be severe. A brief bout of dry weather expected Monday before rain chances return on Tuesday with moderating temperatures into next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM for much of the area - Localized flash flood potential where training occurs -----------------------------------------------------------------

1110 PM Mesoscale Update...
After coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, and surrounding NWS offices, let the Severe Thunderstorm Watch expire on time at 11pm. Convection continues to show an overall weakening trend, looking at satellite cloud top temperatures and radar VIL loops. There could be a marginal severe storm over the next hour, with a local warning possible. Overall, storms will lose the low level jet support, with instability also diminishing.

1005 PM Mesoscale Update...
Convection has been showing signs of becoming less intense.
Overall, regional VIL loop values have been slowly decreasing, though a few individual cells remain strong to severe. Models show MU CAPE diminishing through the night, with a southward push to the low level jet as well. Overall, expect a gradual diminishing trend to the storms overnight, but will still need to monitor with instability in place.

905 PM Mesoscale Update...
Cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch behind the current line of thunderstorms. Some redevelopment to the west has been occuring over the last hour, though the cells have not been as strong as the activity to the east.

00Z PIT sounding still shows very dry air at the surface. MU CAPE was measured near 900 j/kg, with 45kt of effective shear.

8 PM Mesoscale Update...
Thunderstorms continue to form along a band of enhanced instability, pwats and elevated K index values. South of this area, warm air aloft has precluded additional development. The surface cold front/trough was analyzed across NW PA-Nrn OH. The latest mesoanalysis shows MU CAPEs around 1000 j.kg across NW PA. LAPS data shows a K index maximum of 36 where the current band of convection has set up. Values below 30 were seen across SW PA into central OH. Vertical development of the CU field west of this area has been shallow. Will leave watch as is for now due to uncertainty in additional convective development.

Most of the severe weather reports received this evening have been 1-1.5 inch hail. Well developed storm cores have been observed on radar with these storms. Shear values have remained near 40-50kt, though high LCLs have kept the tornado potential low, despite rotating storms. Expect a slow diminishing trend through the evening as instability gradually wanes.

A localized flash flood potential has also developed as some of these storms have trained over the same locations.

Expect a southward shift in this activity as the trough drops slowly southward across the region. The western extent of the convection remains in question, with more limited moisture in that region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns Monday with moderating temperatures.
- Rain chances return for the latter half of Tuesday.
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With the only minimal uncertainty being driven by the progression of the upper trough into Monday, confidence is high that the cold front will clear the area by Monday morning and, aside from some low probability shower chances south of I-70, the day should otherwise be dry. Ensembles aren't very bullish on a notable push of colder air in the wake of the front as an 850 mb ridge quickly builds counteracting weak cold advection in residual northwest flow; most of the day should feature a rather sunny sky with increasing subsidence drying out the boundary layer and temperatures are expected to remain above normal with still a 70-90% chance of exceeding 70 degrees mainly south of I-80.

Brief upper ridging slides overhead on Tuesday reinforcing the dry weather for the first half of the day, but clouds increase from the southwest with increasing moisture aloft ahead of an approaching shortwave traversing and flattening the ridge and reintroducing showers for the second half of the day. We should see a brief break overnight Tuesday night before trailing low pressure arrives.
Amounts with this batch look light with even NBM 90th percentile values only near 0.1-0.2" through Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures remain above average.
- Rain chances continue into mid-week.
- Temperatures return closer to normal by the end of the week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Above normal temperatures and rain chances continue to be the theme into mid-week as southerly return flow promotes warm advection kicking highs above average with ensemble probability for >70F in excess of 70% through Thursday.

What's left of the ridging breaks down into Wednesday as an upper trough and surface low pressure dig across the Midwest with diffluent flow aloft promoting broad ascent. Primary ensemble uncertainty stems from the progression of the trough and surface low, but consensus tracks it through the Great Lakes to our north as it occludes and returns rain to our region by Tuesday with a leading shortwave passing through. Rain chances continue into Thursday as the warm front approaches with the cold front following behind as early as Wednesday night or more likely more toward early Thursday morning. We'll dry out briefly behind the front, but ensembles push a secondary reinforcing trough through by late week which then favors temperatures dipping back down towards normal to close out the week and low confidence rain chances as early as Friday morning, but more likely into Friday afternoon and evening. Still early to talk rainfall totals, but ensemble spread sits from 0.2" on the reasonable low end to near 1" on the high end through Friday.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A band of redeveloping thunderstorms have set up across west central/NW PA in a band of favorable instability, moisture and shear. Expect this activity to shift slowly southward with a southward moving surface cold front/trough, and become more disorganized, and less severe as instability slowly wanes. MVFR to IFR restrictions are expected as this activity affects individual storms. Have included TEMPO groups for some ports where it remains uncertain how far westward thunderstorm development occurs, where warm air aloft has prevented convection.

General VFR is expected behind the front as high pressure gradually builds over the region. Mixing has resulted in strong wind gusts today, and these should also gradually diminish through this evening after the storms end.

Outlook
VFR is expected under high pressure Monday and most of Tuesday.
Restriction potential returns late Tuesday and Wednesday with approaching low pressure. Restrictions are possible into Thursday under a subsequent upper trough.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KLBE ARNOLD PALMER RGNL,PA 17 sm27 minSW 1010 smMostly Cloudy Thunderstorm in Vicinity 72°F48°F43%29.74
KVVS JOSEPH A HARDY CONNELLSVILLE,PA 20 sm27 minWSW 0810 smOvercast72°F45°F38%29.78
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