Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mantoloking, NJ

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Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:48PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 10:31 PM EDT (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 10:48AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 946 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 946 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A nearby front will lift slowly northward into new york and new england tonight and on Wednesday. A slow moving cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest on Wednesday night and Thursday. The boundary is expected to pass through our region on Thursday night. High pressure is anticipated to follow for the coming weekend and for the early part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantoloking , NJ
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location: 40.06, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210108
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
908 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
A nearby front will lift slowly northward into new york and new
england tonight and on Wednesday. A slow moving cold front is
forecast to approach from the northwest on Wednesday night and
Thursday. The boundary is expected to pass through our region on
Thursday night. High pressure is anticipated to follow for the
coming weekend and for the early part of next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
The earlier convection across the lower susqu valley has
diminished for the most part with one or two surviving cells
escaping into the southern poconos attm. Other dying tstms
across DELMARVA has morphed into a large area of showers across
srn de NE md. Going forward, the models are all over the place
with the hrrr showing a dry night and the 18z NAM showing more
tstms developing after 6z. The the nearby front, it seems that
some activity should be expected, so I have just refined the
pops a bit mostly N W and adjusted for present conditions.

Patchy fog will probably develop, but with the drier air today,
likely not that widespread.

With decent cloud cover overnight, temperatures will remain
warm and in the 70s through much of the region, with some mid to
upper 60s across the southern poconos and northwestern new
jersey.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Heat advisory remains in effect through Wednesday.

Another active day is in store for Wednesday as the
aforementioned frontal boundary pushes north of the region,
placing us firmly in the warm sector. Winds that have been more
southeasterly through today will turn more to the southwest and
we will see moisture increase across the region once again with
dew points rising into the low to mid 70s.

Hot and humid conditions will prevail with little relief
expected until showers and thunderstorms start to develop and
move through the forecast area. A pre-frontal trough will
develop ahead of the main front (which arrives Thursday) and
will be a focus for thunderstorm development across the region.

The main concern will be the potential for severe weather. The
spc has placed portions of our area in the slight risk category,
with damaging winds being the main threat. Shear is modest
(only around 20- 30 kts) but with CAPE increasing through the
day to around 1000-2000 j kg and plenty of moisture and lift
available, we could see some strong to severe storms develop,
mainly during the afternoon and evening and primarily to the
north and west of the i-95 corridor. Once again, pwats are
running high (up to 2.00") so heavy rainfall will be likely and
may result in some flooding concerns.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
We should be solidly in the warm and humid air on Wednesday
evening, with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. The warm front
is expected to be well up into new england at that time with an
approaching cold front extending across the eastern great lakes
and the lower ohio river valley.

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to weaken gradually
on Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. Partly
cloudy and muggy conditions are anticipated for late Wednesday
night.

The cold front is forecast to extend from northern new england
to the ohio river valley on Thursday morning. The boundary will
likely sink slowly to the south, passing through our region from
late Thursday into Thursday night. We are expecting another hot
humid day. Heat index values may again approach 100 from the
philadelphia metropolitan area southward. However, conditions
seem borderline and we will not extend the heat advisory at this
point although it may need to be done as we get closer in time.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast ahead of
and with the cold front from Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.

Some improvement is expected on Friday as high pressure begins
to build down into our region from ontario. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms from northeastern maryland and
delaware into southern new jersey as the departing front remains
nearby to our south.

The center of the high is anticipated to shift from ontario to
canada's maritime provinces over the weekend. This pattern will
keep our region in dry conditions with a developing northeast to
east flow. Temperatures will be cooler than what we are
currently experiencing and humidity levels will be noticeably
lower.

The onshore flow may bring a return of some moisture early in
the new week. We have included a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms at that time.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening. Then
more activity N W after midnight psbl. Otherwise, expect mostly
vfr conditions across the region. Some patchy fog psbl and some
low clouds S e. Light and variable winds overnight.

Wednesday... Lingering MVFR ifr conditions (mainly at kacy kmiv)
in the morning should clear by 15z and thenVFR is expected
through much of the day. Showers and thunderstorms will again
develop across the region and there will be the potential for
MVFR or lower conditions to occur during the afternoon and
evening, especially from kphl and northward. South to southwest
winds around 5 to 10 knots early will strengthen into the
afternoon, with some gusts around 15 to 20 knots possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MVFR and ifr conditions with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday... Conditions improving toVFR. However, there will
continue to be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with
locally MVFR and ifr conditions. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with locally MVFR and ifr conditions. Northwest
wind 5 to 10 knots.

Friday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers. Northwest wind 5 to
10 knots.

Friday night... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. North to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots.

Marine
Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue through
Wednesday. Seas will generally be around 2 to 4 feet. Winds are
expected to pick up from the southwest Wednesday afternoon and
gusts may approach 25 knots, especially later in the day. For
now, keep winds just below SCA criteria but cannot rule out a
few gusts around 25 knots.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may lead to locally higher
winds and waves.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

with waves forecast at 2-3 foot and a 6-7 second period, along
with southerly winds 5-10 knots, the risk for dangerous rip
currents is low into tonight. Waves in the surf zone will likely
remain around 2-3 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for paz070-071-102-104-
106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Meola po
short term... Meola
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino meola po
marine... Iovino meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi32 min 76°F2 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi62 min S 7 G 8.9 78°F 79°F1017.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 29 mi32 min S 7.8 G 7.8 77°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.4)74°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi62 min S 5.1 G 6 79°F 82°F1018.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi62 min 79°F 78°F1017.5 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi62 min S 6 G 8.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi62 min SSE 15 G 17 77°F 1017.3 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi62 min Calm 57°F 1018 hPa57°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi56 min S 5.1 G 7 80°F 81°F1017.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi62 min 79°F 76°F1017.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi42 min S 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 77°F2 ft1017.9 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi36 minSSE 410.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1018.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi92 minSSE 510.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1017.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ15 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair73°F0°F%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4--------W3CalmNW4--NW3NE6NE9--NE9E7E9E7E6SE5--SE6SE5SE3SE4
1 day agoE5----SE5--Calm----SW4W4SW3SW5SW6S6SW6W105SE7--SW20
G27
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2 days agoS3CalmSE3S3CalmSW3--CalmCalmCalmCalm--3SE3S63SE7SE10S8S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
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Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.30.30.20.10.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:04 AM EDT     2.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:25 PM EDT     1.92 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.7-0.2-1.1-1.7-2.1-2.2-1.7-0.50.71.621.70.90.1-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.9-1.7-0.90.31.31.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.