Saturday, September18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point Pleasant, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:01PM Saturday September 18, 2021 9:53 AM EDT (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:20PMMoonset 3:49AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 704 Am Edt Sat Sep 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt early this afternoon, then becoming sw late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming ne 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 704 Am Edt Sat Sep 18 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Tropical storm odette will continue to progress northeastward towards the north central atlantic, moving further away from our region. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to pass through our region on Saturday night, followed by high pressure for the period from Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front may arrive Wednesday night or Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Pleasant , NJ
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location: 40.06, -74.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 181033 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 633 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Odette will continue to progress northeastward towards the North Central Atlantic, moving further away from our region. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to pass through our region on Saturday night, followed by high pressure for the period from Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front may arrive Wednesday night or Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast mainly on track, so will make minor adjustments based on latest surface obs. Low clouds and fog across the region will be slow to dissipate as the morning progresses, but skies will become mostly sunny by midday or so. Radar picking up on some showers approaching the southern Poconos, so will add slight chance for showers for the next couple of hours in those areas.

Otherwise, surface high pressure over the area slides offshore later today. A cold front approaches from the west and passes through the region late this afternoon. There is some weak shortwave energy associated with it, but not enough for widespread or organized convection. There is some surface moisture over the region with dew points in the mid to upper 60s, but without that upper level support, any convection is limited. Will carry slight chance PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, but only for several hours this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Odette remains well to the east of the mainland, and will continue to track north and east away from the coast. There will not be direct impacts to the local area from Odette, but the surf will be rough, and there will be a high risk of rip currents due to swells from Odette.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Surface ridge and a high amplitude mid level ridge will gradually build over our region Sunday and Monday. Plenty of subsidence should keep tranquil conditions through this period. The main question through this period is that as the low level flow becomes southeasterly on Monday, will that set the stage for either low stratus or fog development Monday night. With the depth (southeasterly winds from the surface through at least 800 mb) and speed (5 to 20 kt through the layer) of the southeasterly flow, this is more likely to be a low stratus set up. Thus, don't have any mention of fog, but do increase cloud cover Monday night.

In the wake of the cold front tonight, day time temperatures Sunday and Monday will be lower than Saturday, but still slightly above normal, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. The onshore flow will limit radiational cooling at night, so overnight lows for the most part should be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, generally in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overview: The main focus for this period is the cold front which should arrive sometime between Wednesday and Thursday night. This will bring the best chance for widespread rain to the region.

Details:

Tuesday . Another day under the surface and mid level ridge axis will mean conditions similar to Monday. Consequently, the biggest question will be if we will have either low clouds or fog. As with Monday night, this still appears to be a more favorable set up for low clouds instead of fog.

Wednesday through Thursday night . As mentioned above, the cold front arriving during this period has the best chance for widespread rain across the region. However, there is a large spread in guidance on the timing of this front. The GFS is by far the fastest, depicting the front arriving in our region Wednesday afternoon into evening. Most of the other major operational models, most notably the ECMWF and CMC depict a slower progression, with the front not arriving until Thursday or even Thursday night. Even for a day 5-6 period, this large of a difference is unusual and concerning. Given the more meridional mid level pattern and the fact that the front could be occluding as it approaches our region, I have favored a slower timing in the forecast, keeping the highest PoPs during the day on Thursday. Although there is a chance for showers in the current forecast from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening, it won't be raining through that entire period - that is more an artifact of the timing uncertainty. More likely we will see a 12 hour window centered just ahead of the front, when we will have the potential for widespread rain. Potential for thunderstorms or hazards like heavy rain will be highly dependent on the timing, and thus remains quite uncertain for now.

Friday . Once the front finally does clear the region, should have a return to tranquil and seasonable conditions.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Lingering low clouds and fog will dissipate. MVFR early, then VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, but confidence too low to warrant including in TAF. N winds 5-10 kt, becoming NW around midday. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday through Tuesday . Mostly VFR conditions expected during the day time hours. There is a chance for either low stratus or fog both Monday night and Tuesday night, but low confidence in the details of that at this time. Northerly winds 5 to 10 kt on Sunday, becoming easterly and even southeasterly at 5 to 10 kt Monday continuing into Tuesday. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the potential for overnight stratus or fog.

Wednesday . If we get low stratus and/or fog Tuesday night, it may linger through mid day Wednesday. Later in the day on Wednesday, there is a chance for showers to move in, and with it, additional ceiling and visibility restrictions. However, guidance is trending slower, so showers may not arrive in our region until Thursday. Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but moderate confidence on the wind forecast.

MARINE. Swells from Tropical Storm Odette will result in 5 to 8 ft seas across the coastal ocean waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, but was extended until 8 pm. Conditions subside to sub-SCA criteria tonight. N winds 15-20 kt this morning will shift to the W, then SW at 10-15 kt this morning. Winds become NW 10-20 kt tonight.

Outlook .

Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through at least Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is a chance that seas on the Atlantic coastal waters could build to 5 feet.

Rip currents .

Swells from Tropical Storm Odette will result in increased seas and rough conditions in the surf zone today with breaking waves of 2 to 4 feet. There is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today. Conditions begin to abate tonight, and then there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Spotty minor tidal flooding is possible primarily on the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware river centered around the highest astronomical tides through Monday. The combination of increased swells from the departing Tropical Storm Odette, higher astronomical tides with the full moon on Monday, and developing on shore flow will all contribute to this. The highest astronomical tides, and thus the higher risk for spotty minor flooding, will be the evening/overnight high tides. At this point, we are forecasting the tidal levels to remain below advisory criteria. However, if the onshore flow develops faster than what is currently forecast, there could be an increased risk for widespread minor flooding especially with the Sunday evening/night high tide.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. DE . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . MPS Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Johnson/MPS Marine . Johnson/MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 27 mi27 min 72°F6 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 29 mi53 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 72°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi33 min N 7.8 G 9.7 72°F1017.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 34 mi53 min N 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 71°F1019.5 hPa (+0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi77 min N 1.9 G 5.1 70°F 71°F1019.3 hPa
BGNN6 40 mi53 min 77°F 75°F1018.6 hPa (+0.0)
MHRN6 40 mi53 min NW 1.9 G 5.1
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 41 mi83 min Calm 69°F 1020 hPa69°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi53 min N 6 G 7 72°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.0)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi53 min 72°F 72°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi57 minNW 710.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1019.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi53 minWNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F69°F91%1018.3 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ13 mi2 hrsNW 44.00 miFog/Mist68°F68°F100%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tall Pines Camp, New Jersey
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Tall Pines Camp
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:55 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:20 AM EDT     -2.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:35 PM EDT     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:00 PM EDT     2.63 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.9-2.8-1.8-0.50.91.821.60.90.1-0.8-1.7-2.4-2.5-1.7-0.412.22.62.31.60.6-0.4-1.4

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