Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point Pleasant, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure across the area this evening moves offshore overnight. Except for a few Ci clouds at sunset, which were the only clouds today, skies will remain mostly clear overnight. No changes were needed for temps with lows expected to drop into the mid 40s (north) and low 50s for the metros and Delmarva.
Light winds expected overnight.

Warm air advection will be underway on Tuesday with temperatures well above normal levels with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, though cooler at the coasts. As the aforementioned cold front approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten between that approaching front and high pressure off the Southeast Coast. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts.

Any showers and thunderstorms associated with that approaching front should hold off until Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Showers and storms associated with approaching cold front will likely be decaying as they move into the region during the night Tuesday. Have high chance POPs for furthest reaches of the Poconos, ramping down quickly to slight chance along I-95.
Latest outlook at time of writing places Poconos in a marginal risk for severe weather from any dying stronger storms which make it in, perhaps helped along by higher DCAPE since low levels will be a little dry. Lows will be in the 50s in the higher elevations and at the coast, but the low to mid 60s elsewhere thanks to southerly flow and clouds just ahead of the front.

Front slides south across the region during the morning and midday Wednesday. The progress looks a little slower, so temps will be noticeably cooler in the Poconos (60s) but only slightly cooler across I-95 (near 80 degrees), and Delmarva/far S NJ actually looks a bit warmer, helped along by an offshore flow behind the front before cold advection really gets going. Risk of convection across our southern zones with the front looks minimal, so just have some slight chance POPS in central Delmarva.

High pressure is more prominent in the forecast for Wednesday night, with enough clearing, drier air and radiational cooling to make it noticeably cooler than Tuesday night across the board. Lows mostly mid 40s to low 50s and close to 40 degrees in the coolest parts of the Poconos.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will begin retreating eastward again for Thursday, with increasing clouds and perhaps a stray shower later in the day across western areas as another warm front approaches. Highs mostly 70s, 60s shore and Poconos.

Better chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the warm front lifts through on the southeast side of low pressure passing to our northwest. This will hold lows up Thursday night, generally about 10 degrees milder than Wednesday night, with 50s and 60s common. Should break into the warm sector for Friday, with most areas outside the Poconos and shore reaching the 80s again...70s Poconos and shore.

Showers and t-storms likely impact the area later Friday into Friday night as the aforementioned cold front pushes across the region. Still lots of uncertainty about intensity, but we'll be watching any severe weather risk closely.

Latest guidance generally has the front clear our region by early Saturday, with a significantly cooler couple of days for next weekend. Highs will mostly be near 70 both days with 60s Poconos. Will need to watch potential for lingering clouds or even a shower wrapping in behind the front with the upper low for Saturday, but Sunday is more likely to be relatively dry and sunny. Lows Saturday night will be on the cool side again, with 40s common, 30s in the Poconos.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. SW to S winds 0 to 5 kt. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR/SKC-FEW250. SW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Slight chance of showers Tuesday night with passing cold front may result in brief reductions, but unlikely. VFR should then prevail again Wednesday and Wednesday night. Slight chance of showers returns Thursday with restrictions possible, but these are more likely Friday into Friday night and early Saturday when showers may be accompanied by thunder.

MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with 2 to 3 ft seas. A SCA remains in effect starting Tuesday afternoon as SW winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft.

Outlook...

Advisory conditions continuing for the Atlantic coastal waters through Tuesday night.

Conditions likely subside below SCA levels during the morning Wednesday as a cold front slips south of the area. Sub-SCA conditions should then prevail through Thursday before returning to SCA on southerly flow ahead of the next cold front on Friday. This front could also be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Conditions improving on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
On Tuesday, dew points will be rising, but temperatures will rise as well, and this will keep MinRH values low. MinRH values will range from 30 to 35 percent across most of New Jersey and Delaware, and from 35 to 40 percent across southeast Pennsylvania and the eastern shores of Delaware. Will be in contact with the state fire weather partners regarding the need for a Special Weather Statement.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>453.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ454-455.