Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Pleasant Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:17PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:45 PM EDT (21:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:07PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 338 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening, then becoming W 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft dominant period 6 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms this evening, then a chance of rain after midnight. A slight chance of showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Thu..W winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 338 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A coastal low pressure system will continue to intensify as it moves northeast toward new england tonight. As this low moves through the canadian maritimes on Friday, high pressure will approach our area from the ohio river valley. This high is expected to move across the mid-atlantic area Friday night, then offshore Saturday. An area of low pressure may slip by to our south late Sunday and Monday, followed by another frontal system by mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Pleasant Beach , NJ
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location: 40.1, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 162054
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
454 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A coastal low pressure system will continue to intensify as it
moves northeast toward new england tonight. As this low moves through
the canadian maritimes on Friday, high pressure will approach our area
from the ohio river valley. This high is expected to move across the
mid-atlantic area Friday night, then offshore Saturday. An
area of low pressure may slip by to our south late Sunday and Monday,
followed by another frontal system by mid week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
An area of low pressure near the mouth of the chesapeake is
continuing to build strength this afternoon, and will further
strengthen as it moves across the DELMARVA and across new jersey
this evening. Meanwhile, a cold front is approaching from the west
and will merge with the lifting low pressure system. Ahead of these
two features, rain has spread across the area as moisture and lift
associated with a couple of short wave vorticity impulses moves
across the area. There remains some weak instability, so there will
remain the chance for a couple of lightning strikes or rumbles of
thunder. Pw values are around 1.00-1.50 inches, so there will
continue to be some periods of heavy rain as has already fallen.

Rain rates are generally around one-half to three-quarters of an
inch per hour. So flash flooding and river flooding are not
expected. However, ponding on road ways and poor drainage low-lying
type flooding will be possible, especially areas where leaves are
collecting in gutters and drains.

The rain will continue into this evening until the low passes bay.

Once the low passes by, rain will begin to cut off behind it later
this evening and overnight. The exception will be across portions of
northeast pennsylvania and northern new jersey where some wrap around
and lake effect type showers come down across the area in the west
to northwest flow.

As the low continue to move past our area and lift into new england
this evening and overnight, it will significantly strengthen, which
will tighten the pressure gradient across our area. Also, with 45-55
mph above the surface, there will be the potential for 40-50 mph
wind gusts at the surface this evening and overnight. Therefore we
have expanded our wind advisory to cover our whole forecast area.

Winds will not gust 45 to 50 mph the entire time, but will
consistently gust 35 to 40 mph, with peak gusts 45 to 50 mph at
times though the night, especially this evening once the low passes
by.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
The strong low pressure system will continue moving across new
england on Thursday while high pressure remains well to our west.

This will keep very strong pressure gradient across the area through
the day Thursday. 45-50 mph winds above the surface continue through
the day Thursday, which could continue to mix down to the surface.

Therefore the wind advisory will continue through the day Thursday.

Winds will not gust 45 to 50 mph the entire time, but will
consistently gust 35 to 40 mph, with peak gusts 45 to 50 mph at
times.

There will continue to be the chance of wrap around lake effect type
showers across portions of northeast pennsylvania and northern new
jersey through the day Thursday as there will be some enhanced lift
do to elevated low level lapse rates and a couple of short
wave vorticity impulses moving across the area combining with some
enhanced low-mid level moisture. Pw values will be one-half to three-
quarters of an inch, so any precipitation will be light in nature
and fast moving.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night through Friday night...

winds will diminish Thursday evening as the coastal low weakens
and moves eastward into the canadian maritimes. It will still
remain on the breezy side though with gusts upwards of 15 to 25
mph. Otherwise, variable cloud cover persists with lows mostly
in the 40s.

On Friday, weakening low continues to drift eastward through
atlantic canada while high pressure builds eastward towards the
east coast from the ohio valley. Expect lighter winds and more sunshine
compared to Thursday but it will still be on the breezy side
with seasonably cool MAX temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. The
high should build right over the region Friday night resulting in light
winds, clear skies, and good conditions for radiational cooling. As a result,
lows north of the i- 95 corridor are likely to dip into the 30s with possible
frost.

Saturday through Tuesday...

the weather pattern will remain progressive with a period of
continuing fair weather through Saturday. Then a low pressure system
may slip by to our south later Sunday and Monday followed by another
frontal system by midweek. Temperatures are expected to near to slightly
above normal through the period.

In terms of the details, high pressure sits over the area early
Saturday before slowly sliding off the coast by late day as the
upper level ridge crests along the east coast. This will result
in splendid fall conditions with sunshine, light winds, and
seasonable temperatures as highs will be mainly in the 60s.

High pressure with fair weather looks to dominate Saturday
night into Sunday. However, by Sunday afternoon, an area of warm advection
precip may affect southern and western parts of the forecast area as an area of
low pressure slips by further to our south late Sunday and Monday. The best
chances for precipitation with these systems appear to be south of the i-95
corridor. Another cold front is expected to move from west to east across
the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, bringing with it another round
of precipitation.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Conditions will vary between MVFR and ifr late this
afternoon into this evening as moderate to heavy rainfall continues
across the area. Once the rain ends, conditions are expected to lift
toVFR. There is a chance that some areas may not lift above the
upper end of MVFR and remain 2,500-3,000 feet overnight, this is
especially true for abe and rdg. -high confidence is sub-vfr
conditions, moderate in how far belowVFR they remain.

Winds remain southeast this afternoon around 10-15 knots, and may
gust 20-25 knots for some areas, before shifting to the west to
northwest late this afternoon and early this evening as low pressure
passes by the area. Once the winds shift to the west and northwest,
they will consistently gusty 25-35 knots, with peak gusts as much as
40 knots. -high confidence in winds.

Thursday... GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through the day
Thursday, although some areas may not lift above the upper end of
MVFR and remain 2,500-3,000 feet, this is especially true for abe
and rdg. Moderate confidence.

Winds will remain west through the day Thursday and consistently
gusty 25-35 knots, with peak gusts as much as 40 knots. -high
confidence in winds.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Ceilings may lower to MVFR during the evening
and overnight. Northwest wind gusting 25-30 knots early then
overnight. Diminishing overnight. -high confidence in winds,
moderate confidence in ceilings.

Friday... MainlyVFR. Northwest wind gusts 15-25 knots.

-high confidence in winds, moderate confidence in ceilings.

Friday night-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Wind gusts
drop off during the evening. -high confidence.

Marine
Tonight-Thursday... Gale warning now in effect through Thursday for
all waters. Winds are already beginning to gust around 35 knots for
some area and will increase everywhere later this evening and
overnight and continue through Thursday as low pressure passes by
our area and strengthens across new england.

Outlook... Thursday night... Gale warning remains in effect.

Conditions lower below gale force late Thursday night.

Friday... Small craft advisory conditions early, before lowering
through the day..

Friday night-Saturday night... Conditions expected to be below
advisory levels.

Tides coastal flooding
Models are trending too low with tidal levels this afternoon on
the eastern shore of chesapeake bay. With readings at cambridge
reaching advisory levels and approaching minor flooding at
claiborne already, think that advisory-level flooding is pretty
likely along the shores of chesapeake bay and associated
tributaries in queen anne's, talbot, and caroline counties. As
such, have issued a coastal flood advisory through 10 pm this
evening for these areas. Will be monitoring tolchester beach to
determine if advisories will be required for kent county as
well, but for now have held off.

Will also be monitoring the northern new jersey coast this
evening, as southeast winds will be slower to switch to west and
may not do so in time to prevent at least spotty minor flooding.

The more aggressive guidance suggests advisory-level flooding is
possible, but will hold off for now and monitor observations
closely the next few hours. High tide in these areas is between
8 and 11 pm (later in the back bays).

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for paz054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.

Nj... Wind advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for njz001-007>010-012-
015>019.

Wind advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for njz013-014-020>027.

De... Wind advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for dez001.

Wind advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for dez002>004.

Md... Wind advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for mdz008-012-015-019-
020.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for mdz015-
019-020.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Friday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Miketta
near term... Robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Miketta
aviation... Robertson miketta
marine... Robertson miketta
tides coastal flooding... Cms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi52 min ESE 15 G 26 64°F 62°F999.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi36 min ESE 23 G 35 64°F 65°F999.1 hPa61°F
44091 26 mi46 min 65°F7 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 38 mi52 min 64°F 64°F1000.2 hPa
MHRN6 38 mi52 min E 13 G 19
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi52 min SSE 6 G 16 63°F 63°F998.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 39 mi52 min ESE 21 G 25 64°F 1000.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi52 min 64°F 64°F1000.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi70 min SE 8.9 G 14 64°F 64°F998.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi76 min E 13 65°F 999 hPa63°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi56 min ESE 23 G 27 65°F 64°F6 ft1000.4 hPa (-6.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi50 minESE 14 G 207.00 miLight Rain64°F62°F93%999.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi3.8 hrsESE 17 G 2310.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1004 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi50 minSE 13 G 253.00 miHeavy Rain64°F0°F%998.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6W5W5SW4SW4W6W5W4NW5NW5W5NW4NW3W3NW4NW5NW5NW9NW833E7E6E5
2 days agoSE7SE3SE3SE5SE4S4CalmE3N3NE3CalmCalmE3NW3NW4W3W3W5SW8SW8W8W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:36 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:07 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:05 PM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.60.70.20.20.823.244.44.54.13.32.21.30.60.30.51.32.33.23.73.93.8

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:05 AM EDT     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:37 PM EDT     -2.58 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.6-1.4-2-2.3-2-0.90.51.82.42.41.60.5-0.5-1.3-2-2.5-2.5-1.8-0.50.81.82.11.7

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.