NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Dropped highs today a degree or two using two lines of thought.
First, mixing to about h825 suggests cooler temps for the CWA using the 06Z NAM. Likewise, numerical guidance these past several model runs have been running hot. Yesterday's highs were roughly 3 degrees cooler than forecast by guidance. Today's highs have been showing a consistent 1-3 degree bump with each synoptic forecast from the previous 18 hours starting at 06Z this morning. Given yesterday's high bias, today also looks to be forecast a little warmer than what I would expect. Will continue to follow current trends and may shave another degree or two in the next few updates if conditions warrant this drop.
Previous forecast:

Surface high pressure centered over New York will continue to slowly push east into New England today. H5 ridging will be maintained across the eastern United States. This pattern will offer warm, dry conditions with a very light easterly flow. Have nudged up high temperatures a bit due to dry ground and effective mixing this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Tropical low pressure will begin to move north in the vicinity of the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and Thursday. High clouds associated with the systems diffluent outflow will begin to encroach on our southern counties. However, dry weather will be maintained through Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
It looks like the best chance for pcpn in the extended will occur Thursday night into Friday night, and even then that chance will be mainly relegated to the Tri-State region. The remnants of Francine will have become a mid level closed low during this period, only making it so far northeast as it becomes blocked by a strong mid level ridge over the central/eastern Great Lakes and southeast Canada. Thus, with a low level easterly flow, the deep moisture plume and associated lift will only make it so far into our forecast area. All will see an increase in cloud cover, but any appreciable rainfall will be near the Tri-State region as detailed by the latest deterministic model runs. Lows during this period will be in the 60s. Highs on Friday will be kept down due to clouds and the threat for pcpn, ranging from the mid 80s north and east to the upper 70s southwest.

Models and ensembles, including the CMC, are coming into better agreement for the upcoming weekend and into early next week. The trend is to go with a drier forecast as the strong mid level ridge rotates and expands over the eastern Great Lakes and New England.
Meanwhile, the deep moisture gradually retrogrades to the west while the upper level energy associated with the remains of Francine weaken and shear over time. There will be lows chances of rain for the south and southwest on Saturday, trending to a dry forecast for all as we head into Sunday and Monday. This period will also see a trend of less cloud cover through the period. Highs will be in the 80s and lows will be in the 60s.

As we get to the end of the extended period, Tuesday, there are indications that a new mid level low may form over the Carolinas, perhaps retrograding back to the northwest toward our region by mid week. This could bring a threat for rain by then. Until then, will continue with dry conditions on Tuesday with lows remaining mainly in the 60s and highs remaining in the 80s.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure over New England will ensure VFR conditions persist. Have kept river valley fog just to the southeast of LUK once again tomorrow morning due to calm winds and persistence from the previous mornings under a similar pattern.
High clouds will begin to increase at the Cincinnati terminals near the end of the period as Francine's remnants move north into the lower Mississippi Valley.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.