Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 7:50 AM   Moonset 11:59 PM

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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 954 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening - .
Overnight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late. Saturday night - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Sunday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 50 degrees, and off erie 55 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 110224 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1024 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday. A line of showers are expected with it's passage, with the better coverage and strength found in the northern CWA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
A disturbance will work into the region late in the overnight hours and into the daytime morning hours on Saturday. Cloud cover will increase overnight and showers will begin to move into the region by the end of the near term. With the decrease in clouds across the region this evening temperatures have dropped off. Have lows generally in the 40s overnight.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
The back edge of the showers should be in eastern CWA early Saturday and quickly move east and away. However, as the sun interacts with cold air aloft, some showers may begin to spark in eastern and northeastern CWA This is moreso in the afternoon, but the chances were just expanded slightly westward in the morning after the line's passage.

Highs will warm slightly in the south tomorrow. Readings will range from the mid 60s in the north to around 70 along and south of the Ohio River.

It will be a cool night with most places falling into the mid to upper 40s. But some warming will occur on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Clearing skies overnight with a building surface ridge and generally light winds will see lows drop to the mid 40s with a good radiational cooling setup.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Sunday morning, an upper low will be moving eastward through Pennsylvania and New York, with height rises occurring over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will be in place to the southeast of the region, keeping dry conditions in place on Sunday and Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 70s.

On Monday, deep-layer southerly flow will become established into the region, as an upstream trough develops over the plains. While some showers could drift into the area on Monday afternoon, a more significant source of deep-layer moisture and forcing will arrive Monday night. This system will only be moving very slowly eastward, with a surface low not crossing through the Ohio Valley until Wednesday morning. This means that there will be an extended period of chances for showers and storms from Monday night through Wednesday. A southward-moving cold front will follow into the region behind the surface low on Wednesday, providing drier and cooler air and ending the chances for precipitation. Confidence in this part of the forecast is medium, with good confidence in the overall pattern, but still details to work out. Some of the mesoscale details will help determine if there will be any severe or flood threats with this system, but there are no obvious signs at this point in the forecast process.

Confidence is low in the pattern for Thursday and Friday, as there remains model disagreement in how quickly southerly flow and upstream troughing will return to the area. For now, will keep low chances for precipitation in on both days.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers have pushed east of the TAF sites. Dry conditions are then expected for most of the overnight hours. Showers will move through late in the overnight and into the daytime morning hours on Saturday. Winds will pick up and become gusty on Saturday.
While cigs will generally be VFR, some brief MVFR cigs will be possible during the daytime morning hours on Saturday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as thunderstorms possible Monday night through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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