Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manasquan, NJ

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:40 AM EST (12:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 655 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain or snow this morning, then a chance of snow or a slight chance of rain early this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming E late. Seas 3 to 4 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 655 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong high pressure will build in from the west tonight into Thursday and move offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the mid-atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region for the start of the new week. Another low pressure system will approach the region late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manasquan , NJ
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location: 40.11, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 111156 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 656 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure will build in from the west tonight into Thursday and move offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region for the start of the new week. Another low pressure system will approach the region late Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Radar currently shows two distinct bands of snow across the region as of 645AM. The heavier of the two bands is right along the coastline and webcams/reports are indicating that periods of moderate snow is falling of out of the band. Accumulation thus far has been largely confined to grassy surfaces and elevated areas in this band. We've also noted that the precip is finally coming down hard enough to cool the surface wet bulb temps to 30-33F which is cold enough to see decent accumulations. Anticipate the potential for up to an inch or so to fall through around 9am.

The second band is currently just west of the Delaware River and is collocated with the higher Fgen band. This line should also produce brief moderate snow across the region through the morning however dry air is eating into the back of the band so I'm not completely sure its going to travel all the way to the coastline before eroding. Largely the forecast is still holding on in good shape with 0.2" of snow measured here on our snow board and generally a dusting to an inch or snow in grassy surfaces with little to no accumulation on road surfaces.

Previous discussion . Tonight has been quite a mix of wintery precip conditions thus far as we've seen rain mixing with sleet and then periods of moderate snow across the region. Latest radar returns continue to show precip moving from the southwest towards the northeast and at times moderate. The precip rate has largely determined precip type because the atmosphere has been dynamically cooling rapidly but with surface wet bulb temps at or slightly above freezing there's been considerable melting. In areas where the precip has been heavier, reports are largely pure snow, however in areas east of I95, its largely been a mix of rain and snow until about 3am. Expect through the rest of the overnight hours ptype will continue to change over and then its just a function of will the melting rate start to subside.

Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis the salient feature is the strong 700-850mb fgen but its sitting just behind the area of heaviest precip. So currently the best forcing and lift isn't collocated with the highest moisture. This has been precluding us from seeing some of the 1"/hour rates that would start to cool down surfaces fast enough to see more significant accumulations. Based on latest runs of the HRRR it appears that the strong fgen band will shift just east between 10-12z and start to produce some heavier snowfall across the I95 corridor toward the coast. Still think that we'll be fighting some warm surfaces and melting so accumulation totals will generally be less than an inch across the region but certainly in northern NJ and eastern PA where wet bulb temps are below freezing we could see 1-2 inches of snow or so. Elevated and grassy surfaces will see more than roads but either way there may be some slushy spots on roads causing them to become slippery for the morning commute.

Dry air will rapidly push in behind the precip this morning both in guidance and visibly on the latest WV imagery. So conditions across the region will rapidly improve through the morning even as cold air advection continues. Temps will be a fair bit colder today than yesterday as we only warm into the mid 30s even as clouds start to clear.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Quiet weather returns through Thursday as high pressure builds. The flow aloft turns fairly zoning with limited mid level RH. Expect Wednesday night to be fairly chilly with Thursday's highs not being much different. As the day shift yesterday wrote in the AFD, its going to be cold and dry and there's not much else to add to that.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure will slide offshore Thursday night. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight and we should radiate efficiently with lows Thursday night dropping down into the teens to lower 20s. Areas right along the coast and near the urbanized areas of Philadelphia will be more moderate and remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

The high moves into the Canadian maritimes Friday leaving our area in east to southeast return flow. Friday starts off dry but as the next system approaches from the south, some light precipitation may start to edge into our area. While it looks like the precip should hold off until closer to midday, some light precipitation may develop to our southwest and move northward into portions of our forecast area. With temperatures starting off cold Friday morning, they may still be near or slightly below freezing when the light precip moves in. This looks to be largely confined to the southern Poconos and the higher elevations of northwest New Jersey so we have included a brief mention of some freezing rain but confidence is pretty low that we see much if any occur. Temperatures should rise through the late morning with the area expected to above freezing across the board by early afternoon.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track up the southeast coast and up into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will intensify as it pushes northward and will bring rain to the region. The ground is pretty sodden from the rain earlier in the week and with PWATs climbing around 1.0-1.3" on Saturday, we may see some decent rains again and it could be heavy at times. Added the mention of heavy rain into the forecast as it looks clearer that heavy rain will occur within the forecast area. While right now it doesn't look like we will see enough rain to cause any big flooding concerns, there may be some localized issues, especially in areas where there is poor drainage and/or where the leaves may be clogging the storm drains.

Ahead of the system we will be able to warm up quite a bit with highs on Friday rising into the 40s to lower 50s but even more warm air will be present for Saturday and expect highs to rise into the upper 40s to near 60 across the forecast area.

The low will continue to track up into New England by Sunday and it will continue to deepen as it passes by our coast. The pressure gradient will tighten up, especially for Saturday night into Sunday and winds will become quite gusty across the region.

Conditions start to dry out, especially later Sunday, as weak high pressure starts to edge its way into the area from the west.

Another low pressure system will develop near the Gulf of Mexico and move towards our region early in the week. The low looks to start bringing some precipitation to the region as early as later Monday and continuing into Tuesday. With a good deal of warm air arriving to the region, it looks like it will be mainly a rain event again across the region.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Wednesday . Widespread MVFR/IFR in steady snow through the rest of the overnight hours. Shortly before day break there could be a brief window of some moderate to heavy snow generally from the I95 corridor eastward. By mid morning conditions will rapidly improve to VFR as the precipitation comes to an end. West to northwest winds will generally be between 8-12kts with some occasional gusts up to 20kts possible in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday night . VFR expected. Winds mostly under 10 knots under generally northerly winds.

Thursday . VFR with light winds becoming southeasterly to southerly during the day.

Outlook .

Thursday night . VFR conditions expected. Light and variable winds. High Confidence.

Friday..Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower conditions possible as rain develops through the afternoon and evening. Light northeast to east winds. Moderate confidence

Friday night through Saturday . MVFR or lower conditions expected in rain. Conditions may start to improve late Saturday. East winds around 8 to 12 knots Thursday night veering to the south Saturday morning and then to the southwest Saturday afternoon. Moderate confidence

Sunday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory went unchanged as waves are still between 4- 6 feet and should stay above 5 feet for much of the day. Anticipate a lull in the winds offshore through portions of the day today before a secondary surge in low level winds brings just under gale force gusts to the northern ocean waters off of Ocean and Monmouth Counties later this evening.

Wednesday night/Thursday . W/NW wind gusts over 25 kts are expected to persist into Wednesday night before dropping below criteria by Thursday morning. Seas initially 3-4 ft are expected to decrease to 2-3 ft by late Thursday.

Outlook .

Friday . Increasing winds and building seas expected, especially later in the day, but expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the daytime hours. East winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Friday night through Saturday . East winds will continue to increase Friday evening and gusts are expected to near 25 knots by Saturday morning. Winds will turn to south and then west on Saturday. Seas will build to 5 feet by Saturday morning, and continue to build to 5 to 7 feet through the day. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

Saturday night through Sunday . West winds around 15 to 25 knots with gale force gusts possible on Sunday. Seas around 5 to 7 feet will gradually subside to near 5 feet by later Sunday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Deal Short Term . Deal Long Term . Meola Aviation . Deal/Meola Marine . Deal/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi53 min N 6 G 14 34°F 45°F1024.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 25 mi41 min NNE 14 G 19 35°F 1024.7 hPa (+3.2)34°F
44091 27 mi41 min 51°F5 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi53 min 35°F 46°F1024.4 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi53 min NNW 7 G 8.9
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi59 min N 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 42°F1025 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi53 min N 9.9 G 12 34°F 1024.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi53 min 34°F 46°F1024.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi65 min N 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 39°F1024.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 46 mi71 min W 2.9 32°F 1025 hPa32°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi51 min NNE 19 G 23 37°F 49°F5 ft1022.2 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi45 minno data5.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%0 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ16 mi1.7 hrsVar 3 miSnow33°F32°F96%1023.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi45 minNW 33.00 miLight Snow0°F0°F%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE3S8SE7S8S7SE8S5S33S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW5W5CalmE3E5E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:14 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:35 AM EST     4.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:04 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:03 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.823.144.54.5431.90.90.1-0.20.10.922.93.53.83.62.81.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:44 AM EST     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     2.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:24 PM EST     -2.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     2.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.1-2.2-1.6-0.31.12.22.62.21.40.4-0.6-1.5-2.3-2.8-2.7-1.8-0.40.91.821.50.7-0.2-1.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.