Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manasquan, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 4:29 PM EST (21:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 3:10PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 327 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 327 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday night. On Friday, the high will start to shift offshore. A storm system will affect the area over the weekend as an area of low pressure tracks into the great lakes Friday night with a secondary low developing along the coast by Saturday. That storm system will move away on Sunday. High pressure is likely to build back in for the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manasquan , NJ
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location: 40.11, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 212036 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 336 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday night. On Friday, the high will start to shift offshore. A storm system will affect the area over the weekend as an area of low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes Friday night with a secondary low developing along the coast by Saturday. That storm system will move away on Sunday. High pressure is likely to build back in for the start of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. An upper air analysis early this afternoon showed a trough across the southeastern states with another trough across northern New England. A ridge was located across the Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a 1039 mb high was centered over the Tennessee and Ohio valley's. There is an area of more focused low-level warm air advection across much of the Great Lakes region, which has strengthened an inversion there with cloud cover beneath it. The air mass is much drier southeastward across our region, which continues to result in ample sunshine. Despite it still being cold, the 12z Sterling, VA raob showed some weak warming has occurred over the past 24 hours in the 700-850 mb layer.

The expansive surface high centered well to our west into this evening will get closer to our area through the overnight. A lessening north-northwesterly flow along with rather dry air will result in another very cold night. The challenge however is how low will the temperatures go through the overnight hours and if full radiational cooling efficiency can be achieved. The leading edge of the more focused low-level warm air advection and a 500 mb speed maximum is driving an area of high level cloudiness southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and adjacent Canada. These high clouds have already arrived in the northern half of the area this afternoon. The low-level clouds should remain northwest of our area, however at least some cirrus is expected to move across the area through at least the first half of the night. If this is thick enough then the temperatures may not fall off as fast despite winds going light and variable to locally calm. The greatest chance of thicker cirrus should be toward the Poconos. There is some warm air advection aloft through the night, however this is on the weaker side. We blended in the MOS overall with continuity for the low temperatures, which did show some lower readings for some of the typically colder locales. Most areas should drop into the teens by daybreak Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. A ridge axis is forecast to slide across our region during the course of Wednesday. Some warm air advection will continue however the flow will be light given the ridge aloft overhead and surface high pressure arriving. After a very cold start, a 'milder' afternoon is expected however mixing looks to be limited given the weak flow. As a result, we went a little lower than what a MOS/continuity blend showed but this resulted in high temperatures close to where they should be for this time of the year.

Looks like another day of ample sunshine as the ridge axis moves across our region. Some high level cloudiness cannot be ruled out though cresting over the ridge well ahead of a Midwest and Great Lakes system.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview .

Some familiar themes are present heading into the end of this week and beyond. A strong +AO remains a prominent feature in the current pattern. This will continue to limit the intensity and duration of cold air affecting the region as most of the Arctic air remains bottled up near the pole. This will have implications over the weekend for the main system of interest in the long term, as we face another setup in which any frozen precipitation will likely be confined to interior and higher elevation locations. Leading into that, residual high pressure looks to carry us through the end of the work week as ridging over the central US progresses eastward. This will also yield a steady warming trend. By the weekend, low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes, with secondary low development likely along the coast. This will yield our main weather event of the period with Saturday in particular looking unsettled. Heading into early next week, high pressure is likely to build back into the region as ridging redevelops upstream. Rinse and repeat.

Dailies .

Wednesday night-Friday . Dry and quiet weather with high pressure almost directly overhead before it starts to shift offshore on Friday. A gradual warming trend in temperatures with highs several degrees above average both Thursday and Friday as mid-level heights rise. Wednesday night will be another cool one with good radiational cooling conditions, but the lows will also start to moderate by Thursday night.

Friday night-Sunday . This is the main time period of focus for the long range. At the synoptic level, multiple shortwaves moving in from the Pacific will phase over the Plains on Thursday and into Friday. The development of a closed H5 low over the central US is indicated by model guidance, and that closed low will drift eastward through the end of the week while a weak surface low tracks towards the Great Lakes. As this system progresses eastward, secondary cyclogenesis is likely as a coastal low begins to develop. This will bring a precipitation event to our area from late Friday night through at least Saturday night. As usual, there are some model differences in how this process will unfold, though nothing out of the ordinary in terms of the spread between models. Interestingly, in terms of timing, most of the 21.12z guidance trended towards the faster GFS solution in bringing precip into the region during the night on Friday. Usually the GFS has a progressive bias in these cases but since the air mass ahead of this system isn't overly dry the faster onset may be more reasonable.

In terms of precip amounts and types, that will depend on the track and evolution of the primary and secondary lows. The preceding air mass is not very cold, and even if the coastal low develops a little further southeast than currently modeled it will still be tracking very close to overhead of us. So ptype will be an issue and all indications still suggest a mainly rain event along and inside of the I-95 corridor, with better chances for snow and mix to the north and west, especially towards the Poconos and northern NJ where there is certainly potential for accumulating snow. Too early to talk specific amounts but it is possible winter weather headlines will be needed for our northern tier or two of counties over the weekend. Precip looks to come in two batches but without much of a lull between the two. There is an initial round of warm advection driven precip during the day Saturday, then potentially a shield of wrap- around precip (especially to the north) on Saturday evening into Sunday morning as the coastal low strengthens and wraps up. Somewhat reminiscent of the winter storm in early December, though this system has an overall warmer and more progressive look to it. There are some timing differences in the guidance on how fast the storm will depart, but most indications are that we will be drying out on Sunday, with the best chance for lingering rain or snow showers being to the north.

Sunday night-Tuesday . As the weekend storm pulls away, the start of next week looks fairly quiet as high pressure will likely build back in. Expecting temperatures to be mostly above average as even on northwest flow behind the weekend low pressure system, there is no Arctic air to our northwest to advect into the region.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon . VFR with some high clouds. Northwesterly winds around 10 knots (occasional local gusts 15-20 knots), then diminishing toward early evening. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with some high clouds for a time. North-northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming light and variable. High confidence.

Wednesday . VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming north-northwest around 5 knots. The winds should locally become west-southwest in the afternoon. High confidence on VFR occurring; moderate confidence with the winds.

Outlook . Wednesday night-Friday . VFR. Winds light and variable, becoming light easterly on Friday. High confidence.

Friday night-Saturday . Initially VFR Friday night, but sub-VFR conditions will likely develop by late Friday night and continue through the day on Saturday. Easterly winds of 10 to 20 kt, with gusts to 30 kt possible especially near the coast. High confidence in overall trend for this to be an unsettled period, moderate confidence in details.

Saturday night-Sunday . Sub-VFR conditions will likely linger at least through Saturday night and potentially into the day on Sunday, though the trend will be for gradual improvement. Winds shifting to westerly on Saturday night at 10 to 15 kt. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 kt expected on Sunday. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. The conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Wednesday as high pressure gradually builds across our region.

Outlook . Wednesday night-Thursday night . Mainly sub-SCA conditions expected, though seas may approach 5 ft by late Thursday night especially to the south. Northeast winds around 10 kt.

Friday-Sunday . SCA conditions are expected for the duration of this period. Seas will likely build to 5 ft on Friday morning and remain 5 to 8 ft through most of this period before gradually diminishing on Sunday. Increasing easterly winds from Friday into Saturday. Winds may approach gale force late on Saturday, though any gale force conditions should be brief. A shift to southerly then westerly flow is likely Saturday night into Sunday with gusts continuing to reach 25 kt.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a new moon on Friday, along with an onshore flow may lead to areas of coastal flooding with the high tide Friday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Gorse Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Gorse/O'Brien Marine . Gorse/O'Brien Tides/Coastal Flooding . Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi59 min N 8 G 14 33°F 38°F1030.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 25 mi39 min N 12 G 16 33°F 2 ft1029.8 hPa14°F
44091 27 mi29 min 47°F3 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi59 min 33°F 41°F1029.9 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi59 min NW 9.9 G 13
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi59 min N 4.1 G 11 35°F 35°F1030.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi59 min N 11 G 13 32°F 1029.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi59 min 32°F 42°F1029.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi53 min NNW 4.1 G 9.9 35°F 36°F1029.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 46 mi59 min NW 4.1 34°F 1031 hPa8°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi39 min 14 G 18 32°F 45°F3 ft1029.2 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi33 minNNW 610.00 miFair33°F6°F32%1030 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ16 mi89 minNW 510.00 miFair35°F7°F31%1029.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi33 minNNW 710.00 miFair33°F6°F32%1030.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW9W7NW10NW8NW8NW9NW10NW10NW6NW6W4W4W5W5W4NW9NW8NW6NW7NW9NW6W11NW6
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2 days agoSE3SE8--S6S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:37 AM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:06 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.82.83.74.34.43.93210.2-0.20.10.81.72.53.23.53.32.61.80.90.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:54 AM EST     2.62 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:12 AM EST     -2.91 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:34 PM EST     1.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EST     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.21.22.32.62.21.40.5-0.5-1.4-2.3-2.9-2.6-1.7-0.411.81.91.40.7-0.2-0.9-1.7-2.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.