NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure will meander some 300 miles east of the Jersey Shore today through tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the southern Province of Ontario will build down into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and even down into the southern Appalachians.

Some patchy ground fog this morning will lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise due to heating of the day. Mostly sunny skies this morning will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening.

Although some light rain showers will rotate around the low and back towards the mainland, they will be isolated, so will keep PoPs capped at slight chance, and primarily for this afternoon.
QPF will be minimal.

Skies clear out tonight, and with light onshore flow, patchy fog is possible once again.

Highs today will be mild with highs some 5 degrees or so above normal, topping off in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows tonight will be in the 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The strong low pressure system will continue to meander offshore through the weekend as a weak high pressure system tries dipping down the east coast from from eastern Canada. Late in the day, a an area of PVA starts pushing in creating enough lift across our western counties to see some showers develop. It doesn't seem to be anything significant however there's a moderate (30-40%)
chance of showers developing over central PA. As the day shift mentioned yesterday, its not a frontal passage but rather some synoptic lift that causes the showers so rainfall doesn't look to overspread the entire forecast area. Temps will be fairly seasonable within a few degrees of normal for daytime highs and overnight lows for this time of the year.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure returns to start the work week bringing dry weather back to the region. However the dry weather may not last long as current guidance suggests the return of some much needed rain moving into the region during the middle of the week.
A messy frontal system is forecast to move eastward as a an area of low pressure moves across the Ohio River Vally and into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday through Thursday. The exact dynamics of what will cause the rainfall is still a bit uncertain as it may be a front that swings all the way through or a secondary low pressure that potentially develops and impacts the area around Thursday. Either way, ensemble guidance is showing at least moderate (40-50%) chances for rainfall through the middle of the week which should be helpful given conditions have been abnormally dry for the last month for many areas.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Local ground fog with restrictions as low as IFR through 12Z or so. VFR otherwise. E to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR expected, however, patchy fog may result in MVFR or lower conditions. LGT/VRB winds. Low confidence on development of fog.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected.

Saturday night...Generally VFR with MVFR or IFR possible in showers.

Sunday...Generally VFR with MVFR possible during the morning, improving to VFR.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR prevailing with MVFR or IFR possible in showers.

MARINE
Low pressure meanders several hundred miles east of the Jersey Shore.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the ocean waters today and tonight, primarily for 4 to 6 ft seas. However, there may be some 25+ kt gusts this afternoon. Otherwise, NE winds will average 15 to 20 kt.

Sub-SCA conditions for Delaware Bay. E winds around 10 kt today will turn N tonight.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory in effect due to seas.

Monday-Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely continue due to seas.

Rip currents...

There is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches today and Saturday, and possibly for Sunday as well. NE winds will range from 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph along with 4 to 6 ft breaking waves both today and Saturday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Continued onshore flow will result in water piling up and unable to drain within tidal waterways. At least minor tidal flooding is expected for the next several high tide cycles for portions of our area. Moderate tidal flooding may occur for portions of our area this weekend.

Coastal Flood Advisories are posted for the New Jersey coast, Delaware Coast, and part of the Delaware Bay (Cumberland County in New Jersey and Kent County in Delaware) as at least minor tidal flooding is expected around high tide through the end of the weekend. Some guidance indicates moderate flooding may occur for some locations as early as the Friday morning high tide cycle. However, confidence in this remains low at this time; will stick with the advisory for now. A short-fused upgrade may occur during the next update. Confidence is better for moderate coastal flooding to occur with high tide cycles this weekend.
Have issued a Coastal Flood Watch as a result to cover the Saturday and Sunday morning high tide cycles.

For the tidal Delaware River, in general, it looks like water levels will stay just below advisory thresholds, but will be watching trends closely.

For the northeastern shore of Maryland, am getting increasingly concerned that there will be minor flooding over the weekend.
Latest high tide cycle was considerably higher than most guidance. Will watch trends overnight to see if this low bias continues.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014- 020>027.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for NJZ012>014-020>027.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NJZ014- 024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for DEZ002>004.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>453.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ454-455.