Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM   Moonset 2:09 AM

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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 402 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon - .
Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely. Tonight - NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Wave detail: E 6 ft at 9 seconds, becoming E 8 ft at 9 seconds. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: E 8 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Wave detail: E 8 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 6 ft at 8 seconds. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ400 402 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Syn0psis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay -

FXUS61 KPHI 150935 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 535 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Several waves of low pressure will slowly pass by the area through tonight. These waves will consolidate into one low pressure that meanders offshore on Thursday. Weak high pressure briefly builds into the region Thursday night and Friday. Another slow moving low pressure system will cause unsettled conditions through the weekend lingering potentially into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A gray day ahead as surface low pressure near the mouth of the Chesapeake will meander northward into tonight. Although it will only slightly strengthen, it will still produce a widespread rainfall across the forecast area. The rain will be over much of the area today and then be more focused closer to the New Jersey coast this evening and tonight. Rainfall totals have increased over the next 24 hours. I've painted about 0.25 inches well north and west to about an inch south and east.

Highs today will be in the 60s. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

Mainly a southeast/east wind to start the day. We'll finish the forecast period with northeast winds. We're expecting the winds to be noticeable today into tonight gusting up to 20 or 25 mph.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Coastal low pressure will meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday as the waves of low pressure merge into one system. The low then drifts east into the western Atlantic on Friday. Weak high pressure also approaches on Thursday, but it doesn't really build fully into the region until Thursday night and Friday.

Thursday will consist of periods of light rain being thrown back around the northern side of the low primarily across Delaware, New Jersey and the Poconos. To the south and west, dry air will begin to filter in from the approaching high which will allow PoPs to be less across southeast Pennsylvania and eastern Maryland. However, with the low still in relative close proximity to the area, low clouds and stratus will likely be difficult to erode. Some breaks will be found the further west you are, but with onshore flow, it will feel quite damp and cool. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s areawide.

Thursday night will feature drying conditions across the area with just some lingering showers near the coast. Decreasing clouds overnight with lows in the 50s. Friday at this point looks like the "pick of the week" considering the entire forecast. Surface high pressure will be in control causing a mix of sun and clouds along with seasonable temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The long term period continues to remain highly variable due to the timing differences amongst forecast guidance with regards to the next low pressure system.

The surface high over the region on Friday will retreat to the northeast on Friday night. Another slow moving low pressure system will move along the southern Appalachians on Saturday, over the Mid- Atlantic on Sunday, and eventually offshore into early next week.
The biggest forecast challenge at this point is the timing of the system as it works its way across the area though. Guidance continues to struggle and vary from run to run. To avoid a windshield wiper effect to the forecast, have continued to base the long term forecast strictly off the NBM. This generally includes a slight chance of rain showers Friday night, increasing and peaking on Saturday into Saturday night before decreasing on Sunday. For now, it still looks like the weekend will be fairly unsettled, but it may not entirely be raining the entire time. Precip chances reduce on Monday and Tuesday as the low exits the region. Temps are expected to be below average for Saturday and Sunday, before making a return closer to average on Monday and Tuesday depending on the progression of the low.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of the overnight...A mix of VFR and MVFR becoming either MVFR or IFR as both ceilings and visibilities lower in rain. Moderate confidence.

Today
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions in rain
becoming IFR. SE winds 5 to 10 kts becoming NE around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 or 25 kts. LLWS concerns arise late this morning and persist through the afternoon near the NJ coast where the center of the low will track. High confidence with the MVFR, lower confidence on the extent and duration of IFR conditions.

Tonight...MVFR and IFR in the evening becoming MVFR. Rain likely across the I95 terminals and eastward. A chance of rain at KRDG and KABE. Decreasing chances of rain as we move through the overnight. N to NE winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 20 or 25 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions continue with periods of light rain.

Thursday night through Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible on Thursday night, improving to VFR on Friday. No significant weather expected.

Saturday through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions return with periods of rain.

MARINE
Today...SCA conditions developing from south to north on our ocean waters and lower Delaware Bay. E to SE winds gusting up to 25 or 30 kts. Seas building to 5-7 feet on the ocean.

Tonight...SCA conditions on our ocean waters. The SCA will also continue on the lower Delaware Bay through at least the evening hours. NE winds 15 to 25 kts. Seas 5-7 feet on the ocean.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...The SCA for all ocean waters is in effect until 6 PM on Thursday. Due to elevated seas lingering into Friday, the SCA will likely need to be extended. Conditions will remain below SCA thresholds on the Delaware Bay.

Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday...Small Craft Advisory level conditions possible.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ451-452.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ453>455.

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Sea Girt
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Wed -- 01:20 AM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:57 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:09 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sea Girt, New Jersey, Tide feet

Forge Pond
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Wed -- 02:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:23 AM EDT     0.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:56 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:11 PM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:04 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Forge Pond, New Jersey, Tide feet

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