Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:08PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:27 AM EDT (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 3:14PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 623 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of showers late.
Tonight..SE winds around 15 kt, becoming W late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ400 623 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front approaches the region later today and moves through the region tonight. High pressure returns for the midweek period before moving offshore on Friday. Another cold front moves through Friday night. Low pressure may affect the area late this weekend and into the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake , NJ
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location: 40.15, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220716
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
316 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaches the region later today and passes
through the region tonight. High pressure returns for the
midweek period before moving offshore on Friday. Another cold
front passes through Friday night. Low pressure may affect the
area late this weekend and into the start of the new week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A strong upper-level trough in the midwest to the lower
mississippi valley will gradually shift eastward today. However,
the center of the trough (closed low) will shift into canada
later today. Surface low pressure tied to the trough aloft will
lift into canada later today. Meanwhile, an associated cold
front will approach our area this afternoon and then cross our
region tonight.

The aforementioned surface system is occluded, and an east to
southeast low-level flow will be across our area. There is a
sharp increase in the moisture advection forecast by later today
as the 925 mb to 500 mb flow increases. This results in a
narrow corridor of 1.5 to near 2.0 inches of precipitable water
advecting northward and into our area. Due to this moisture
advection, surface dew points will be on the rise and given the
time of the year it will feel more humid this afternoon.

The forecast challenge for today is the timing of the rain
along and just ahead of the occluded front and any showers prior
to. While the guidance is in pretty good agreement in bringing
this into our western counties (pa) between 2-4 pm, some
guidance wants to produce some light showers or drizzle starting
this morning. The latter is likely due to a low cloud deck that
is in place for many areas, and while some drizzle cannot be
ruled out the bulk of the rain arrives late this afternoon from
the west. As a result, our forecast pops are more focused on
this organized area of rain arriving from the west.

Despite the wealth of cloud cover expected today, low-level
warm air advection along with some increase in the flow just
above the surface will take afternoon temperatures into the 60s
for many places (even close to 70f for some southern areas). It
should be cooler along the coast though given a breeze off the
water. The forecast soundings continue to show a pronounced
inversion just below 850 mb today given warm air advection above
an east to southeast lower level flow. This results in a lack
of instability through the day overall. The main rain band then
arrives with the front this evening (more on this in the short
term section below).

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
A strong upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward
from the great lakes region with the associated occluded surface
low moving into canada. The cold front will swing across our
area tonight, especially by late evening. The front will be
accompanied by mid and upper level jet streaks. A low-level jet
on the order of about 40 knots will cross mostly our southern
zones this evening in conjuction with a weak surface low
tracking along the front. These will enhance some of the rain
however the entire system looks progressive enough and therefore
heavier rainfall duration should be limited. Given an axis of
nearly 2-inch precipitable water values ahead of the front, some
heavier rain cannot be ruled out with the highest rainfall
amounts still expected across mainly northeastern pennsylvania
and northern new jersey.

The forecast soundings continue to show some elevated
instability developing this evening primarily across delmarva
into far southern new jersey. These soundings also show weak mid
level lapse rates which results in weaker buoyancy. Given the
continuation of this in the model soundings, opted to maintain
no thunder in the forecast. While the main trough remains to our
west during the much of the night, robust short wave energy
lifting up the east side of it along with a 500 mb jet near 85
knots allows the trough to take on some negative tilt. This
looks to happen later at night when the frontal rain is moving
off the coast therefore additional enhancement looks low at this
point. It should be noted that during the evening especially
across the southern areas where the low-level jet is stronger
(higher shear), some heavier rain could result in brief stronger
wind gusts although the soundings overall do not look all that
favorable regarding the transfer of stronger winds down to the
surface.

As the front moves offshore overnight, a wind shift to west and
northwest occurs allowing cold air advection to take over and
also some drying to work in. We are expecting clearing to take
place overnight from west to east as a result, and there could
be a brief period when the winds turn a bit gusty behind the
cold front given the rapid increase in cold air advection.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Cold front will be offshore on Wednesday, and high pressure
centered over southeast begins to build in from the west. The
center of the high will pass over DELMARVA on Thursday before
moving out to sea on Friday. Tranquil conditions on tap with
sunny skies and near normal temperatures with highs in the mid
and upper 60s.

A cold front approaches on Friday and passes through the region
Friday night. Some showers are possible, mainly across the
southern poconos, northern new jersey, and the lehigh valley
Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

From there, the forecast is highly uncertain, as there is
little consistency among the models as to what comes next. The
only consensus is that low pressure looks to affect the region
sometime this weekend. However, the timing is off.

The 00z GFS has the front hanging over the area, and low
pressure developing along the front as a deep h5 trough digs
through the great lakes and ohio valley. This keeps rain in the
forecast for pretty much all day Saturday.

However, the 00z ECMWF and the 00z cmc have high pressure
building in from the west and passing overhead Saturday night
before moving offshore on Sunday. This results in sunny skies
and dry conditions for Saturday.

On Sunday, however, the 00z GFS is dry, whereas the the 00z
ecmwf and 00z cmc have the low approaching during the day, and
rain moves into the region in the afternoon. Some lingering
showers are possible on Monday.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR ifr ceilings. Some showers should arrive mostly in
the rdg and abe areas around 16z with potentially MVFR
visibilities at times, then a band of rain arrives from west to
east later in the afternoon. Locally light and variable winds
becoming mainly east- southeast around 10 knots, with some
afternoon gusts to 15-20 knots possible at acy. Low confidence
on the timing of ifr ceilings.

Tonight... Ifr to MVFR conditions with rain, then the conditions
improve toVFR mostly after midnight as the rain ends.

Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots, becoming west to northwest and
could gust for a brief time up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with mostly skc conditions.

West winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on Wednesday, becoming
lgt vrb Wednesday night, and then SW less than 10 kt Thursday.

Friday through Friday night...VFR initially, then MVFR
possible, mainly at krdg kabe in -shra. South winds less than 10
kt, becoming NW Friday night.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR, but low confidence as there is little
consistency among model guidance. NW winds less than 10 kt, but
confidence is low on that as well.

Marine
Small craft advisory conditions through at least tonight. On
the new jersey and delaware atlantic coastal waters, seas remain
elevated early this morning (6-7 feet) and while these should
subside some today they may not drop completely below 5 feet. In
addition, an increase in southeasterly winds later today and
then a surge of west to northwest winds tonight should result in
gusts to around 25 knots. As a result, the advisory has been
extended through tonight.

For delaware bay, there is the potential for a southeasterly
wind surge this afternoon and evening followed by a west to
northwest wind surge later tonight. Given a high enough
potential for some periods of wind gusts to about 25 knots, a
small craft advisory has been issued for this afternoon and
tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday... SCA conditions during the day with NW winds 15-20
kt with 25-30 kt gusts. Winds diminish late.

Wednesday night through Friday night... Winds and seas should
stay below SCA criteria.

Saturday... Generally sub-sca conditions, however gusts to 20 kt
are possible on the ocean waters.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Mps
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi57 min E 13 G 17 57°F 58°F1017.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi37 min E 14 G 18 60°F 62°F5 ft1017.8 hPa56°F
44091 29 mi27 min 63°F5 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi57 min 57°F 61°F1017.4 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi57 min E 9.9 G 13
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi57 min ESE 13 G 15 57°F 1017.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi57 min 58°F 61°F1017.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi57 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 57°F 56°F1017.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi51 min E 4.1 G 4.1 56°F 56°F1016.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi37 min E 12 G 14 60°F 61°F7 ft1018.5 hPa (+0.3)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi57 min ENE 9.9 59°F 1017 hPa59°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi57 min SE 2.9 G 6 55°F 61°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi31 minE 96.00 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1017.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi87 minENE 41.25 miFog/Mist56°F55°F100%1017 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ21 mi31 minVar 66.00 miOvercast with Haze0°F0°F%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------NE7E5E3E4E4W4CalmCalmCalmE6E5E6E5CalmE6E5E6E9
1 day ago------------------------------------------NW6----
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:14 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.53.73.63.12.31.61.10.80.91.52.43.344.44.443.12.21.40.80.40.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.10.20.20.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.10.1

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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.