Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:25PM Saturday April 4, 2020 10:09 AM EDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 4:50AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 706 Am Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt early this afternoon, then becoming E around 5 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft early this afternoon. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 12 seconds. A slight chance of showers early this morning.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 13 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then becoming nw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 12 seconds. A chance of showers until early morning.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ400 706 Am Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A persistent coastal low pressure system will finally push east today as high pressure builds in from the east. A weak cold front will cross through the region on Sunday with high pressure continuing to build through the work week. Towards the middle of the week two rounds of low pressure systems will track through the region with the stronger of the two systems on coming towards the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake , NJ
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location: 40.15, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 041255 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 855 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A persistent coastal low pressure system will finally push east today as high pressure builds in from the east. A weak cold front will cross through the region on Sunday with high pressure continuing to build through the work week. Towards the middle of the week two rounds of low pressure systems will track through the region with the stronger of the two systems on coming towards the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The seemingly-eternal coastal low will finally move away from the area for good today as the North Atlantic ridge weakens. Behind this feature a fairly messy (in the synoptic sense) flow regime will set up over the Mid-Atlantic as a trough over the Great Lakes temporarily prevents High Pressure over the Upper Midwest from building into the area. At mid-lvls an initially amplified ridge will move towards the area flattening as it does so.

With the mid morning update, we added the mention of patchy drizzle across the area for this morning as some very light returns can be seen on radar and a fine mist and/or light drizzle has been occuring in spots. Continuing onshore flow will keep the lower clouds in place for most of the day and highs should be near-normal (e.g. generally mid to upper 50s, with lower 50s closer to the coast).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. A weak wave will dive down the back side of the ridge this evening, and this combined with some modest low-lvl convergence may be sufficient to result in some light rain over the northern third or so of the area. Given the unfavorable synoptic setup (e.g. upstream ridge), limited any PoPs to slight Chance and even this might be "generous." Otherwise a cloudy night is expected for most of the area, apart from the southern third which may see some clearing. Light winds will prevail with overnight mins generally in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak cold front will slide through the region on Sunday largely without precip. We may see some isolated showers but the RH profiles show drying air pushing in aloft and ending much of the light rain before it regions the area. Behind that system we'll see a return of high pressure, zonal flow aloft and warm air advection.

Temps by Tues/Wed of this week should push into the upper 60s to low 70s across DelMarVa before the first of two areas of low pressure move through the region. The disturbance tracks through on Wednesday from the Ohio Valley region but the upper level dynamics aren't quite as strong as the system later in the week. Nonetheless, there is some modest shear aloft, and showalters turn negative so we could see some elevated convection leading to some thunderstorms. Equilibrium levels are forecast to be around 27,000 feet which would support some decently tall storms.

The stronger system tracks through on Thursday night into Friday as we see significant 500mb height falls across the Mid- Atlantic. Shear will be strong, although the timing and antecedent cold front will weaken much of the instability threat. Time will tell and we'll continue to monitor as a fairly strong cold front appears increasingly likely towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Prevailing MVFR this morning, then ceilings are expected to lift to low-end VFR this afternoon.. Winds will initially be northerly-northeasterly around 10-15kts but then may vary considerably across the area by this afternoon. Winds will likely retain an easterly component around 5-10 kts at KACY and KMIV, but are more likely to be variable around 5 kts at KRDG and KABE with more uncertainly in the I-95 corridor. Moderate confidence on flight categories and winds.

Tonight . Mostly low-end VFR, although periods of MVFR will be possible. Winds generally southerly 5 kts or less. High confidence on winds, low confidence on flight categories.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR with southwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. A chance for MVFR CIGs as scattered showers move into the region Sunday evening. Moderate confidence.

Monday . VFR with westerly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR expected with southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. A chance for a few showers in the morning may bring sub-VFR CIG restrictions. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Sub-VFR conditions possible as rain showers move across the region. Light and variable winds from 5 knots or less. Low confidence.

MARINE. The SCA will remain in effect for the ocean zones through the day Saturday and through the overnight period on Sunday. Although wind gusts should decrease through the day, seas will remain 6-8 ft (possibly even up to 9 ft). Tonight seas will decrease to 5-7 ft and wind gusts will drop off to only 10 kts or so.

Outlook. Sunday . SCA expected with seas remaining 4 to 6 feet with southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots.

Monday . Seas may remain above 5 feet through the morning with southwesterly winds turning southeasterly from 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday through Wednesday . Sub-SCA conditions expected with southwesterly winds turning easterly Wednesday from 10 to 15 knots. A few gusts to 20 knots are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas below 5 feet.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A strong ocean storm is acting in concert with the approaching full moon and resultant increasing astronomical tides to promote the potential for several rounds of coastal flooding on the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and adjacent tidal tributaries beginning with tonight's high tide. The threat appears greatest with this first high tide, with potential for widespread moderate flooding in tidal sections of southern New Jersey and central/southern Delaware. The coastal flood watch for these areas has been upgraded to a coastal flood warning (in effect from 2 am to 10 am Saturday). Widespread advisory-level flooding is expected in coastal sections of northern/central New Jersey, upper Delaware Bay, and tidal sections of the Delaware River, where coastal flood advisories have been posted. Localized moderate flooding is possible on the Atlantic coast and along the southern shores of Raritan Bay in northern/central New Jersey, and if model trends continue upward, an upgrade to a coastal flood warning may be required later this evening.

Subsequent high tides may also feature minor coastal flooding, and advisories later this weekend will likely be required once confidence has sufficiently increased. In addition, water levels will be increasing slowly on the eastern shores of Chesapeake Bay and may approach minor flooding levels later in the weekend


PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ070-071-106. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ012>014-020-021-026-027. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for NJZ022>025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ015-017>019. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NJZ016. DE . Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for DEZ001. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Carr/Fitzsimmons Short Term . Carr Long Term . Deal Aviation . Carr/Deal Marine . Carr/Deal Tides/Coastal Flooding .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi51 min NNE 9.9 G 13 46°F 48°F1016.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi29 min NNE 12 G 16 46°F 1016.3 hPa41°F
44091 29 mi39 min 46°F8 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi51 min 47°F 48°F1016.3 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi51 min NNE 7 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi57 min ENE 12 G 13 47°F 1015.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi57 min 46°F 47°F1016.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi51 min ESE 5.1 G 8 48°F 50°F1016.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi93 min ENE 7 G 11 48°F 49°F1015 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi79 min 21 G 27 45°F 45°F10 ft1014.2 hPa (+2.7)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi39 min N 6 48°F 1016 hPa42°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi51 min E 4.1 G 9.9 47°F 52°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi13 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast46°F45°F96%1016.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi63 minNE 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast47°F43°F86%1015.3 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ21 mi13 minNE 14 G 1810.00 miOvercast47°F42°F83%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:38 AM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:01 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:19 PM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:18 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.23.23.94.44.543.1210.3-00.31.12.13.13.94.34.23.52.41.30.5-0

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:38 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1000.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.10.10000.10.10.20.30.30.30.20.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.