Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 3:36 AM EDT (07:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:41AMMoonset 3:50PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 101 Am Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds, becoming mainly from the E with a dominant period of 4 seconds after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 101 Am Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Surface high pressure builds over the northeast tonight, and then a backdoor cold front slides through the region on Wednesday as the high moves offshore. A warm front lifts north on Thursday, followed by a cold front late Friday. Another cold front approaches over the weekend. Bermuda high pressure becomes entrenched off the southeast and mid-atlantic coasts for the start of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake , NJ
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location: 40.15, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 150144 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 944 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure builds over the Northeast tonight, and then a backdoor cold front slides through the region on Wednesday as the high moves offshore. A warm front lifts north on Thursday, followed by a cold front late Friday. Another cold front approaches over the weekend. Bermuda high pressure becomes entrenched off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts for the start of the new week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. A mid level low centered off the New England coast this evening will continue to move out to sea. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the system remained to the north and east of our region. The precipitation will continue to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.

Weak surface high pressure will continue to build into our region from the northwest overnight. We are anticipating scattered clouds and a light and variable wind. Low temperatures will favor the 60s in New Jersey, Delaware, northeastern Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will slide to the east, with the center remaining to the northeast of our area. This will put us in an easterly flow, which is expected to help keep the temperatures a bit cooler and fairly comfortable. Even though the mid level ridging may help to warm temperatures, the 850mb temps are supportive of slightly cooler temps (more in the 15-17C range as opposed to the previous 17-19C range they showed days ago). Temperatures inland are more likely to hold onto the warmth though as the easterly flow may take a while to really take hold there. Having said that, there is definitely some bust potential here for daytime highs. One thing that will occur is the increasing low level moisture as the easterly flow takes hold across the region so expect dew points to start creeping up once again. Expect clouds to develop again through the day, and in some places may be more scattered to broken.

Even with the increasing moisture, there are no real triggers to get any sort of pop up showers to develop so anticipate another dry day across the region.

Daytime highs will generally be in the 80s throughout the forecast area with some upper 70s in the higher elevations and along the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Surface high pressure moves into eastern Canada and the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday night, and as it does, a backdoor cold front will slide down the Northeast and into the Mid- Atlantic. Onshore flow develops, but given how dry it is ahead of this front, not expecting any precip with its passage. Some patchy fog may develop with the onshore flow, however.

Surface high pressure will extend from the Canadian maritimes, through the Gulf of Maine, and into eastern Long Island, and this will be combined with mid-level ridging along the East Coast on Thursday. These should help slow the progression of an approaching cold front, and keep most of Thursday dry. A cooler day, with highs generally in the 80s, but surface dew points will begin to creep up through the mid 60s. Although some showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, they will be confined to portions of the southern Poconos and Berks county.

The trend for a slower progression of the front continues Thursday night and Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach the I-95 corridor Thursday night, but the bulk of the activity will hold off until Friday afternoon. A pre-frontal trough develops out ahead of the front, and this will be the trigger for afternoon and evening convection. Temperatures will not be overly hot on Friday, generally topping off in the mid to upper 80s, but it will be quite humid, with surface dew points in the low 70s. 12Z GFS is indicating surface based CAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg, possibly as high as 3000 J/kg along the urban corridor, along with upwards of 2500 J/kg MUCAPE. PWATs are 2-2.5 inches. Not much shear, though. Could end up being more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat, but there is still plenty of time to work out the details.

The front probably will not make it through the region until Saturday, but the front seems to get hung up just offshore. Dew points only marginally drop off Saturday afternoon, and because of this slight drying out period, temperatures should warm quite nicely into the upper 80s and around 90. Another weak front approaches on Sunday, but seemingly washes out before it gets here. Convection is possible on Saturday, and would only be limited to the far western zones on Sunday.

From there, Bermuda high pressure will set up offshore, and strong return flow will develop across the region. A hot and humid airmass will build into much of the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic with some of the hottest and most humid weather of the season. Expecting highs topping off in the mid to upper 90s, along with dew points well in the 70s. Could be a situation where the highest dew points (74-77) occur during the overnight hours, and only marginally drop off in the afternoon (71-74) due to afternoon heating and mixing. Either way, widespread Heat Index values of 100-105 are becoming likely for a vast majority of the forecast area for the first half of the new week, and Heat Advisories may be needed, if not Excessive Heat Warnings.

Afternoon and early evening convection is possible Monday and Tuesday, given the instability due to the heat and humidity, as thermal troughs develop west of the region, aided by some mid- level shortwave energy.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR conditions with scattered clouds. Variable wind 6 knots or less. High confidence.

Wednesday . VFR conditions with scattered clouds. Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . Generally VFR, but cannot rule out sub-VFR conditions in fog. Light E-SE winds. Low confidence on CIGs/VSBYs, moderate confidence on winds.

Thursday . Mainly VFR. SE winds 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night through Friday night . A chance for SHRA/TSRA with sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise VFR. Patchy fog possible during the overnight hours, especially in locations where rain occurred. SE winds Thursday night, becoming S on Friday, the SW Friday night, generally 10-15 kt, though lighter at night. Low confidence.

Saturday . Scattered SHRA/TSRA with sub-VFR conditions possible. VFR otherwise. W-SW winds 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR. SW winds 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters through Wednesday. West to northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north to northeast overnight. Winds will become easterly on Wednesday. Seas around 2 to 3 feet on the ocean.

Outlook .

Wednesday night through Thursday . Sub-SCA conditions expected with fair weather.

Thursday night through Saturday . Although conditions will mainly be sub-SCA, a prolonged southerly flow may result in 15-20 kt winds, along with seas building to around 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms may result in locally higher winds and waves, especially Fri are day afternoon and Friday night. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Saturday.

Sunday . Sub-SCA winds and waves expected.

Rip Currents .

Winds are forecast to turn more onshore from the east Wednesday, but will remain light from 10 to 15 mph. This, combined with a breaking wave height of only 2 feet or less and a moderate to long period swell of 7-8 seconds will yield a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. If winds become stronger in the afternoon, a period of moderate risk may develop, however.

Easterly winds are forecast to continue into the daytime Thursday. A similar wave height and swell will lead to another low risk for dangerous rip currents.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho. It is scheduled to be repaired on Thursday the 16th.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.



Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Meola Long Term . MPS Aviation . Iovino/MPS Marine . Davis/Meola/MPS Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi66 min 80°F1018.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi36 min NNE 9.7 G 9.7 1017.7 hPa (+0.9)
44091 29 mi70 min 76°F2 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi66 min 79°F1018.3 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi96 min NNE 8 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi66 min 1018.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi66 min 77°F1018.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi66 min 79°F1018.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi60 min 80°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi36 min ENE 14 G 18 1017.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi66 min SW 1 68°F 1019 hPa65°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi66 min 1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi40 minN 310.00 miFair71°F71°F100%1018.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi36 minno data10.00 miFair0°F0°F%1017.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ21 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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NW9N8NW7E6SE7S5SE3CalmS3CalmNW3CalmNW3N3
1 day agoE3CalmW3SW3W6W7W76W9NW8W9W9W10
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2 days agoSW6S5S5SW6SW7W9W10W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:29 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:37 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:02 PM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:28 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.83.33.73.63.22.51.81.20.80.81.222.93.74.24.44.23.62.821.411

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.100.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.