Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Borden, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A frontal boundary remains draped over the area. Some shortwave energy passing north of the region is touching off some light showers across the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Not much QPF is associated with these showers.

Meanwhile, low pressure lies over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and will track east today before passing through the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and Lehigh Valley tonight.

Much of today will be mostly sunny for much of the region, except mostly cloudy for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. As that low approaches, southerly flow increases over the area, and this will allow a warmer airmass to spread into the region. Highs today will get into the upper 70s to low 80s for Delmarva, southeast Pennsylvania, and most of New Jersey.
For the northern areas, where clouds will be abundant and on the northern side of the frontal boundary, highs will be in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms become likely over the southern Poconos, and scattered down to the I-195 corridor this evening and most of tonight as low pressure passes through the northern half of the forecast area. Any thunderstorms will be garden variety, and not expecting severe weather. However, a 30-40 kt LLJ will be overhead, so there may be a few gusts to 30 to 40 mph in any stronger storm.

Precipitation tapers off in the predawn hours of Monday morning as the low departs. Overall, QPF will be minimal and generally less than 0.10 inches, but up to 0.20 inches possible in the southern Poconos. As the low departs, a cold front will begin to work its way down through the region and should be through the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and Lehigh Valley by daybreak Monday. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s and 60s, but could get down into the 40s in the far northern zones as cold air advection will begin.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A strong upper-level trough settling into the Eastern States will usher in a colder air mass across our region. This trough will drive low pressure by our region with an associated strong cold front shifting offshore early Monday morning. While a few showers cannot be ruled out to start Monday morning, drier air is forecast to arrive in the wake of the cold front.
Strengthening cold air advection during Monday and therefore afternoon temperatures will be close to average before the main temperature drop occurs. Areas of cloud cover should be in place given the cold air advection and strong trough aloft. There will be a tightening pressure gradient in place Monday and this combined with strengthening cold air advection results in deeper mixing. Therefore, a gusty northwesterly wind is forecast with peak wind gusts to around 30 mph. This wind should diminish at least some Monday night setting the stage for a chilly to cold night. While the air mass will be colder and therefore temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s, some low to mid 30s are forecast across the northern areas. This would promote some frost by daybreak Tuesday, however this detail will depend on how much the wind can decouple.

Tuesday will be chilly/cold as surface high pressure remains centered well to our west and southwest. This will result in a lingering pressure gradient, although the winds are not anticipated to be as strong as Monday. Still a notable breeze is forecast during the day before diminishing at night which should have a greater chance for decoupling in many areas.
Temperatures during the day look to not warm out of the 50s for most of the area, then drop back into the 30s for many areas Tuesday night (milder in the urban centers and along the coasts). Areas of frost look probable again, especially where winds are able to decouple.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary...Chilly/cold to start followed by gradual warming; Dry conditions are forecast.

Synoptic Overview...A strong upper-level trough is forecast to be crossing the Eastern U.S. Wednesday before shifting to the east Thursday. A ridge then arrives from the west For Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a trough may swing across the area later Wednesday otherwise expansive high pressure well to our west gradually builds eastward with the ridge aloft. This area of high pressure is currently forecast to settle right over our area Friday into Saturday. This pattern offers little if any chance for showers and therefore the dry conditions look to prevail.

For Wednesday and Thursday...As the axis of a strong upper- level trough pivots across the East Wednesday, a surface trough may slide across our area later Wednesday. No precipitation is anticipated, however some additional cloud cover may occur with daytime heating until the trough axis shifts offshore. A northwesterly breeze will also be in place Wednesday. A ridge to our west will then shift eastward through Thursday, bringing surface high pressure much closer to our area. The center of this high however is currently forecast to remain to our west/southwest until Thursday night. The air mass associated with this surface high results in temperatures below average with much of the area topping out only in the 50s to near 60 degrees each afternoon. Temperatures each night drop into the 30s for many places and this introduces the increased potential for areas of frost. This detail will depend on cloud cover and especially if the wind can completely decouple each night.

For Friday and Saturday...As a ridge aloft continues to build into the eastern states, sprawling surface high pressure is currently forecast to settle right over our area. The air mass will undergo moderation during this time and the wind will be much less. Friday may very well start out frosty for at least portions of our area, otherwise a warming trend is forecast with temperatures each afternoon rising through the 60s with even some lower 70s on Saturday. The presence of the ridge aloft and surface high pressure across the entire region leads to more dry conditions across the area.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. LGT/VRB winds this morning, becoming S to SW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Brief MVFR conditions possible at KRDG/KABE in SHRA and possibly a TSRA. SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W by daybreak. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR. Northwest winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing at night.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts to 20 knots during the day Tuesday and possibly again on Wednesday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory conditions for all waters starting this afternoon as SW winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas will build to 5 to 7 feet. Gusty SW winds continue through tonight. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will affect the waters this evening.

Outlook...

Small Craft Advisory continues through Monday and is now extended through the first half of Monday night. Gusty northwest winds continue and with the offshore wind the seas will subside some. Overall the wind gusts look to be mainly below 34 knots therefore held off on any gale watches. The winds should diminish some later Monday night into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts may continue at times through Wednesday before diminishing some more during Thursday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.