Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Powell, OH

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday August 22, 2019 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 12:24PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:201908221415;;021930 Fzus51 Kcle 220740 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 340 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez143>146-221415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 340 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Today..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 76 degrees, and off erie 78 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Powell, OH
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location: 40.17, -83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 221720
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
120 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage ahead of
slow moving cold front today. Precipitation chances will diminish
by Friday as drier air moves in from the north behind the
departing cold front. Surface high pressure will build into the
great lakes Friday night and Saturday, offering cooler and drier
weather. The high will move off to the east by Sunday. A few
isolated storms may be possible by late Sunday afternoon along and
south of the ohio river as moisture begins to return north.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The morning MCS (largely elevated over a stable boundary layer)
has now exited the iln CWA to the east northeast, leaving a
worked-over atmosphere in its wake. Satellite imagery and
surface observations confirm that it remains very cloudy behind
the mcs, with extensive mid-level cloud cover and even some
patches of MVFR ifr low clouds developing in spots. To first
discuss the temperature forecast, it is interesting to note that
recent hrrr rap runs still suggest a significant amount of
warming coming into the iln CWA today, especially south of the
approaching cold front (which will be discussed below). These
models bring the SE iln CWA into the upper 80s. However, the
extensive cloud cover and poor quality of the theta-e advection
would suggest that these values are not realistic. The previous
forecast temperatures were not this warm, and this forecast
update will maintain a similar pace -- allowing for a range from
upper 70s (near and north of the front) to mid 80s (far
southeast cwa).

Based on wind TD obs, the front is currently located just
upstream of the iln cwa, and it will continue to move slowly
southward throughout the day. It appears that the frontal
progression may be slightly slower than the previous forecast,
and all indications are that afternoon convective development
will occur while the front is still somewhere in the i-70
vicinity, rather than further south. Pops were thus focused a
little further north than before, but held in the 50-60 percent
range at most, as activity may be generally scattered (and
initiation timing and location is not completely locked down).

With instability appearing marginal, and low level shear
appearing weak, the severe threat appears minimal -- though not
quite zero. The hwo has been updated to reflect the latest
thinking, in which some storms may produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, but any severe weather would be very isolated.

Previous discussion >
westerly mid level flow with a thunderstorm complex over
southern indiana central ky to track east across iln S southern
counties this morning. Elevated instability of around 1000 j kg
exists ahead of this complex over northern kentucky. Some strong
to gusty winds will be possible early but elevated nature
should limit gusts... With a few storms approaching severe
limits. This MCS to weaken and push east across iln S fa
through the early morning.

E-w oriented surface cold front over the southern great lakes to
sag slowly south today as shortwave energy digs into the
southern great lakes. Models show the development of favorable
low level convergence, along with moderate instby across the
south. Will continue a period of likely pops but these pops
may have to be bumped up. The moderate instby that develops
with the airmass destabilizing this aftn coincides with
moderate deep layer shear. Therefore, a few strong to severe
storms may occur with damaging winds being the main threat.

Also, moisture increases with precipitable water values
over 2 inches. This will lead to the possibility of locally
heavy rain. The clouds and convection will keep temperatures
down, with highs ranging from the mid 70s north to the lower
80s south.

Will highlight the potential for severe weather and locally
heavy rain across the south in the hwo product.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Expect ongoing convection with the e-w front continuing to sag
slowly south of the ohio river tonight. A few of the storms
could be severe across the south early with damaging winds being
the main threat. Also, locally heavy rain will be possible.

Far northern northern counties will begin to dry out while
coverage of storms diminishes to low chance acrs the far south
overnight. Lows tonight will range the upper 50s far north to
the upper 60s south of the ohio river.

Marginal instby lags across the far south early Friday, so will
continue chance pops in the post frontal environment. These pops
will diminish during the aftn hours. Cooler temperatures and
drier air with highs from 75 north to the upper 70s south.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
High pressure and dry air will be moving in behind a cold front for
Friday night and Saturday. Expect mainly clear sunny skies in the
dry subsident circulation around the high. Most locations should
remain dry through Sunday as the high travels from ontario to new
england, though increasing humidity may allow isolated thunderstorms
in the far south.

Chance for thunderstorms will spread across the entire area on
Monday in the increasingly moist southerly flow ahead of an upper
trough and surface cold front approaching from the west. Additional
thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday with cold frontal passage. We
could see a few thunderstorms lingering on Wednesday, though the
latest ECMWF goes against the model blend in bringing high pressure
and dry weather conditions.

Temperatures will be below normal to start the period on Saturday,
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Warm advection and insolation
will boost readings to the near normal low and mid 80s Sunday
through Wednesday.

Aviation 17z Thursday through Monday
The main focus for today is the potential for additional
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Storms are looking a
little less certain than during previous forecasts, so mentions
have been limited to vcts at kiln kday kcmh klck. Although
storms are less likely, showers appear fairly likely to occur,
and at worst these may bring conditions down to MVFR levels.

Dry conditions are expected heading into the overnight hours,
along with a wind shift from the west to the north as a front
moves southward through the area. Some MVFR ceilings are
expected to develop during the early morning hours, and these
should mix out toVFR conditions as drier air moves into the
area later tomorrow morning.

Outlook... Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Ar
near term... Hatzos ar
short term... Ar
long term... Coniglio
aviation... Hatzos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 87 mi107 min NE 7 69°F 1015 hPa60°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 88 mi32 min ENE 14 G 18 71°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 96 mi44 min ENE 11 G 13 71°F 77°F1015.7 hPa58°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH7 mi39 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F69°F85%1015.2 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH13 mi41 minSSW 810.00 miLight Rain74°F69°F85%1015.1 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH19 mi36 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast73°F67°F81%1016.3 hPa
Columbus, Bolton Field Airport, OH20 mi42 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F69°F83%1016.3 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH24 mi2.6 hrsno data10.00 miOvercast73°F69°F89%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSU

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)
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--W7SW12W8W8W5SW4--S4W3--NW6NW6--CalmSW4SW4SW7N8NW4SW3S7
1 day agoSW6SW7S15
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----SW10SW9SW6----SW5------SW6--W9SW6SW7----W10SW8W7
2 days agoW3Calm--S6SW3W6NE4NE3W3N3--------CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E8S5S10S7W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.