Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:00PM Monday August 10, 2020 2:18 PM EDT (18:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:41PMMoonset 12:38PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 101 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. Areas of fog late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Areas of fog early in the morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of tstms.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 101 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will translate offshore today and move further out to sea into Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and then is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. SEveral weak waves of low pressure will develop and move along this front through next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon-by-the-Sea , NJ
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location: 40.18, -73.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 101706 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 106 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will translate offshore today and move further out to sea into Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and then is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. Several weak waves of low pressure will develop and move along this front through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Midday update .

No changes for today's forecast with this update. A few pop up showers are developing along the sea and bay breezes, and should see a few more and potentially an isolated thunderstorm or two through the rest of the afternoon. Otherwise, a hot and humid afternoon is underway.

Morning update .

Patchy fog and low stratus from earlier in the morning has largely dissipated, with plenty of sunshine expected through the rest of the day. Previous forecast nicely covers the convective potential for later today. Very little forcing today, but also little inhibition. Continuing to expect only isolated to widely scattered shower/storm coverage, but any taller cores could produce locally gusty winds due to high DCAPE values. All in all, a pretty typical summer day Previous discussion follows.

Fairly benign weather expected over our area today as a warm and fairly muggy SW flow prevails on the western periphery of weak high pressure over the Atlantic. At the mid-lvls the synoptic pattern remains rather uninspiring as we remain on the flat northern fringe of the southern US ridge, with the main northern branch jet and stronger shortwave energy continuing to track to our north.

Expect that it will be a fairly typical warm & muggy midsummer day with high temperatures generally in the low 90s, and peak heat indices in the mid-upper 90s. Given the warm/moist airmass there be adequate instability (>=1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to support thunderstorm development this afternoon. Although there is very little shear, dry air just above the surface combined with steep low-lvl lapse rates does support at least some gusty wind potential (likely not severe) with any storms that form. Given a lack of large-scale forcing, storm coverage should be fairly isolated. The most likely areas for convection appear to be in Delaware/NJ along the sea/bay breeze boundaries, with perhaps a secondary area of initiation near the higher terrain of the Poconos.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. The only concern for the Monday night period will be the potential for another round of fog and stratus development as winds will be light, moisture remains pooled across our area, and appreciable mid-lvl cloud cover should not be present. Guidance hints at the greatest potential for fog/stratus development to be along the coastal plain, but wouldn't be surprised to see some development (although likely more patchy in nature) in the usual prone river valleys. Otherwise low temperatures will generally favor the low 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Synoptic Overview:

The general synoptic pattern over the CONUS will be fairly typical of midsummer through most of the extended period. A prominent H5 ridge will be centered over the SW US, while a second ridge will be centered just off the US SE Coast. North of these ridges a train of generally weak shortwave ridges and troughs will progress across the northern US and Canada. There is some hint of a more amplified trough approaching the Eastern US early next week but uncertainty naturally increases by this time.

At the surface a front associated with a Canadian low will approach our area towards the middle of the week. Per usual in the warm season this front will more or less stall in the vicinity of our area as the low moves well to our NE and High Pressure builds in its wake over eastern Canada ahead of a shortwave ridge. The overall pattern gets more uncertain late week as this boundary oscillates in our general vicinity and various waves of low pressure develop and move along the boundary.

Dailies:

Tuesday . Tuesday will be another warm and muggy day, with similar to if not even slightly higher heat index values as Monday. Still think we mix out enough to avoid Heat Advisory conditions, but it will need to be watched. A weak shortwave in zonal flow may generate some convection in the afternoon with activity likely focused over western portions of our area, where instability will be highest. Given the weak forcing coverage should remain isolated to scattered at best.

Wednesday . The cold front will approach the area from the north on Wednesday, with widely scattered thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon as moisture/instability pools over our area near and south of the boundary. Speaking of moisture, it will be another muggy day with heat indices once again topping out in the mid to upper 90s over much of the area.

Thursday-Saturday . The boundary will be stalled in our general vicinity (although the thermal/moisture gradient will begin to wash out) through this period. Although the exact placement of the boundary and the track of any associated frontal waves is uncertain, in general this period looks rather unsettled with storms possible every day with a max in precip chances in the diurnal convective window (e.g. the afternoon). The GFS/EC both depict PWATs over 2 inches for our area over more or less this entire time period, and that moisture combined with a nearly stationary focus for precipitation will at least warrant monitoring from a hydro perspective as we move forward. Although we will retain the higher dewpoints . abundant cloud cover/precipitation, and eventually a shift to offshore flow should keep high temperatures somewhat mild (generally low to mid 80s).

Sunday . Uncertainty increases by Sunday as the EC/CMC depict a fairly strong low (initially cold-core) developing on the boundary and moving offshore (taking most of the precipitation with it), while the GFS keeps us in the unsettled pattern for another day. Ultimately just went Chc PoPs and near-climo temps given the uncertainty

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today . VFR with a southwest wind of 5 to 10 kt. A coastal sea breeze with a shift to S or SSE winds is possible this afternoon especially for ACY and MIV. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with brief and localized sub-VFR conditions, including for PHL, however coverage of this activity is expected to be limited at best. Overall, high confidence in the forecast.

Tonight . VFR to start the overnight period however there will be the potential for restrictions in fog/stratus development Tuesday morning. Winds either light SW or light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Generally VFR conditions expected although showers/storms will be possible in the afternoon especially at KABE/KRDG. Southerly winds around 10 kts. High confidence on winds, low confidence on storm potential.

Wednesday . The chance of restrictions due to thunderstorms will increase Wednesday afternoon, particularly for KABE, KRDG, and the I-95 sites. Southerly winds 5-10kts. Moderate confidence.

Thursday through Friday . Periodic restrictions possible through this period with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly-Southeasterly winds 10 kt or less. High confidence on storms, low confidence on timing and intensity.

MARINE. Winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory criteria Monday with seas 2 ft or less and southerly winds 10-15kts. Some fog may develop along the coast late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Friday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through the workweek. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today and Tuesday. The wind is expected to favor the southeast and south around 10 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) has been returned to service.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Carr/O'Brien Short Term . Carr Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/O'Brien Marine . Carr Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi49 min SSE 9.9 G 13 79°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi29 min S 9.7 G 12 74°F1 ft1016.1 hPa
44091 30 mi53 min 71°F2 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi49 min 78°F
MHRN6 33 mi49 min S 6 G 12
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi49 min S 16 G 17
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi49 min 76°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi49 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 76°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi39 min SSW 9.7 G 12 75°F1016.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi49 min WSW 1 G 1.9
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi43 min W 6 G 8 87°F 75°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi23 minSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds90°F77°F66%1016.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ20 mi75 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds86°F69°F59%1016.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ24 mi23 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy94°F70°F46%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S12S9S7S5S4S5S5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW5SW5SW7SW3W4S3S6SE6
1 day agoE7SE6SE6SE7SE6S3SE6CalmCalmS4SW3SW4SW4SW4W4SW4W3W3W654CalmS5SE8
2 days agoE6--NE7NE8E4NE4E9E8SW4CalmN4N3NE3N3N34NE4NE3NE3NE5N5NE7E7E8

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:24 AM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.13.52.51.610.70.81.42.23.13.74.24.343.32.41.81.41.21.422.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Route 35 bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.63.32.61.710.70.611.62.433.53.73.73.22.41.81.31.11.11.52.12.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.