Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a warm front will be possible today.

2. Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening along with breezy and hot conditions.

3. Tide levels will remain elevated through Wednesday night's high tide cycle which may lead to areas of spotty minor to minor tidal flooding.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a warm front will be possible today.

A stationary front over the Mid-Atlantic will lift north as a warm front as low pressure over the Great Lakes tracks east.
Some showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will develop over Delmarva during the early morning hours. As that front lifts north throughout the day, it will interact with some midlevel shortwave energy in the afternoon that will result in another round of showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey this afternoon. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts.

Today will be warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s and surface dew points will creep up into the upper 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening along with breezy and hot conditions.

A closed upper-low over portions of Manitoba and Ontario will continue to meander in that region, with large scale troughing in place over much of the Northern CONUS. On Thursday, a strong shortwave still appears poised to round the base of the trough, ejecting through southern portions of Ontario and Quebec southward into New England, taking on an increasingly negative tilt as it does so. A belt of enhanced flow aloft will overspread the region as the shortwave passes to the north. At the surface, a warm front looks to lift through the area during the early morning hours. Low pressure looks to track north of the region with a tailing cold front passing through the region during the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms appear likely during the morning hours across primarily east central PA and northern NJ. Severe weather appears unlikely with this initial round of activity. Southeastern PA, central and southern NJ, and the Delmarva will likely remain dry through the morning and into the afternoon.

As the shortwave and cold front begin to approach the region Thursday, unseasonably strong mid and upper-level flow will overspread the region. Guidance suggests H5 flow on the order of 60 kt or greater. This will lead to deep layer shear on the order of 50- 55 kt. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures appear likely to surge into the upper 80s to lower 90s with strong southwesterly low-level flow. In addition, moisture will continue surging into the area, with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to near lower 70s, though at least modest mixing does appear probable with the strong surface heating. The result will be at least some destabilization, with guidance generally depicting MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg.

Latest guidance has trended a little faster with the shortwave, with both the GFS and NAM showing it passing north of the area mid- morning into early afternoon. The ECM continues to feature a slightly slower northeastward progression of the wave, with it passing north of the region during the afternoon. This will be an important detail to monitor over the next couple of days as it will play a role in storm coverage along and ahead of the cold front. If the wave does indeed pass through earlier in the day, despite the flow remaining enhanced aloft, subsidence in the wake of the wave could make storm development a little more difficult. Nevertheless, the strong cold front should still be able to serve as a focus for isolated to scattered storm development. Given the destabilization and impressive kinematics, any storms that do develop will have the potential to be severe. The primary threats appear to be damaging winds and perhaps some instances of hail given the strong yet unidirectional shear.

Outside of the severe thunderstorm potential, it will also be a hot and very breezy day. With temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat indices in the low to mid 90s are likely for the I-95 corridor and points south and east, with drier and slightly cooler conditions to the northwest. The surface low that is expected to track north of the area will be fairly deep, likely around 990 mb or perhaps a bit deeper. This will lead to a strong mass response with intensifying southwesterly flow into the afternoon. As of right now, it appears wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be common areawide. It still appears unlikely that Wind Advisory criteria will be met, but it will be noticeably breezy.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Tide levels will remain elevated through the high tide cycle tonight which may lead to areas of spotty minor to minor tidal flooding.

After the New Moon on Sunday, the elevated astronomical tides will continue to subside. However, spotty minor to minor areas of coastal flooding may continue to affect portions of the southern New Jersey Atlantic Coast and along Delaware Bay through the high tide cycle tonight.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...VFR. A few SHRA may result in brief VSBY restrictions. LGT/VRB winds. Moderate confidence.

Today...Overall, VFR, but VSBY restrictions possible in scattered afternoon SHRA, even a TSRA, mainly at KRDG/KABE/KTTN.
S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 10 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...Prevailing VFR, but period of restrictions is probable in the afternoon and evening as showers and some thunderstorms increase in coverage. Southwest winds gusting 25-35 kts outside of any thunderstorms.

Friday...A few showers and thunderstorms may linger with some restrictions possible at times, but VFR should generally prevail.

Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight. Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt become south 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later today and tonight. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters later this afternoon.

Outlook...

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for Thursday and Thursday evening. South winds increase to 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Brief southerly wind gusts could be close to gale force within 5 miles of the coast on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible in the late in the afternoon and evening bringing a lightning threat and hazardous seas with significant wave heights building 4-7 feet through the overnight hours.

Heading towards the weekend, winds and seas drop below SCA with no marine hazards anticipated.

Rip Currents...

Today, southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with a light southeast swell with a 6 to 8 second period. This will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches.

On Thursday, south-southwest winds will be increasing to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. A southeasterly 4 to 6 foot swell at 6 to 7 seconds, will lead to breaking wave heights of 2 to 4 feet. As a result, have opted to go with a HIGH risk for the Jersey Shore and a MODERATE risk for the Delaware Beaches of dangerous rip currents. No rip current statement has been issued at this time, but will likely be needed with upcoming forecast cycles.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.