Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Allen, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Forecast mostly on track, so only minor changes will be made to the hourly grids based on the latest surface obs and satellite images.

Otherwise, high pressure is presently centered just to our southeast with upper level trough heading away from the region.

Tonight, winds should relax as they shift to a more southerly direction while high pressure shifts east off the coast to our south. Skies stay clear in the evening, but high clouds increase overnight. This could potentially allow for some radiational cooling to bring temps close to freezing where the growing season is considered active. A Frost Advisory was issued for the southern half of New Jersey, where surface pressure gradient and clear skies lasting a bit later into the night should allow for greater threat of frost development. Farther west into Delmarva and southeast Pennsylvania, the pressure gradient and increasing clouds should result in a lower risk of frost, so no advisory was posted for those areas. Latest low temperature forecast remain below guidance consensus. Lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s across the area, and closer to 40 degrees for the urban and coastal areas, as well as Delmarva.

Friday a warm front approaches from the southwest as the high shifts further east and southwesterly flow increases. Winds will be a bit stronger around 15-25 mph, gusting up to 35 mph, but temps will also rise nearly 10 more degrees, with many areas approaching or passing 70 degrees (50s to low 60s for the immediate coastline).

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Warm front passes Friday evening and the overnight period should remain quite mild with southwesterly flow. A stray shower can't be ruled out as it passes especially across the north, but overall expect it to stay dry. Lows mostly in the 50s.

Saturday will see filtered sun as a cold front approaches from the northwest. However, most forcing will bypass our region to the north, with the frontal passage Saturday night likely nearly if not totally dry. The exception is the northwestern areas, Lehigh Valley, NW NJ and especially the Poconos, where scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm is expected. Highs Saturday should reach the low 80s across much of the region, notably cooler in the Poconos and along the coast, while lows drop back to the 50s for the most part Saturday night.

Sunday high pressure tries building in from the northwest, though the front won't get too far south of us. This means that we're likely no better than partly sunny, with temps 10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday, but it still looks dry.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The period begins with a surface warm front to our south and a zonal mid-level flow. Sunday night looks like it will be the coldest night of this period in the post-frontal environment.
Lows will mainly be in the 40s, but expect 30s well north and west and some 50s across our Delmarva zones.

On Monday, low pressure will move into the Great Lakes. A cold front will be approaching the region from the west. At the same time, a warm front will be moving northward through the Mid- Atlantic. Expect some rain showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Maybe they'll sneak into the Southern Poconos late Monday afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Highs on Monday will warm into the 50s and 60s across the forecast area, coolest across the northwest and near the ocean where an onshore flow will be present. Overnight lows on Monday night will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Tuesday's temperatures will moderate into the 60s and 70s as surface winds veer south and southwest.

At this time, high pressure looks like it will be overhead on Wednesday. As a result, expect afternoon highs to climb into the 60s and 70s everywhere.

The high will break down on Thursday allowing a cold front to approach from the west. But once again, highs will be in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR. West/southwest wind 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. SCT/BKN high clouds. Light and variable wind will become south/southwest during the morning hours and increase to 15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt during the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR conditions expected.

Monday and Monday night...VFR conditions expected for at least the first half of the day. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with some showers moving through later in the afternoon, and more so into Monday night.

Tuesday...Returning to VFR conditions.

MARINE
Southwesterly winds 5-10 kts tonight will increase to 15-25 kts as we head through the day Friday with seas building from 1-3 feet tonight to 2-4 feet Friday. Sub advisory conditions expected through Friday morning, then a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for all coastal waters at 2 PM Friday.
Delaware Bay was added to the advisory.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory in effect for all coastal waters including Delaware Bay for southerly to southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 kts and waves up to 6 feet.
Lighter winds should keep it sub- SCA on Delaware Bay.

Saturday night...SCA conditions may linger in the evening on the ocean, but should subside overnight. Sub-SCA on Delaware Bay.

Sunday through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER
For Friday, winds turn southwesterly and increase a bit from today, with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm as well, but some high clouds will mute the sunshine a little and humidity should increase a bit, mostly staying above 30 percent. Will reach out to fire weather partners early Friday morning to see if fuels have dried sufficiently for a Special Weather Statement.

Winds will be similar Saturday with warmer temperatures, but humidity should rise further.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ012-013- 015>022-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.