Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Allen, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:52PM Monday August 19, 2019 5:30 PM EDT (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 335 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms, mainly this evening.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 335 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly move and weaken as it moves across the area waters this evening. High pressure builds briefly across the area Tuesday with a wave of low pressure developing late Tuesday and approaching Tuesday night. A warm front will move north of the waters Wednesday. A cold front will slowly approach Wednesday night and move through the waters Thursday night. High pressure builds Friday and remains into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Allen , NJ
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location: 40.18, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 192002
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
402 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move into the region tonight. The front
stalls near our area through Tuesday before moving northward on
Wednesday. A stronger cold front will drop down into the area
Wednesday night and then slowly sag southward through Thursday. Low
pressure will track along the slow moving front on Thursday. High
pressure will then build down from the northwest on Friday and
persist through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A short wave trough tracking across southern quebec canada and new
england into this evening will glance our northern zones. Meanwhile,
a surface trough along with a sea breeze boundary is present across
new jersey into delmarva. A mesoscale analysis shows up to 3000 j kg
of MLCAPE from the i-95 corridor south and east, with less
instability northwestward. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon
shows the cumulus field the most robust within the thermal trough
and instability axis. Some additional convection will develop in
spots into this evening before weakening occurs. The overall
coverage however is less certain still given the overall weaker
forcing with a southern extent. Due to the combination of strong
instability and dcape up to 1100 j kg, stronger cores will exhibit
downbursts due to water-loaded downdrafts and therefore a few severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts. Localized backbuilding east
of the sea breeze will also result in a local flash flood threat due
to high rainfall rates. Some hail will also occur in the stronger
updraft cores.

A hot and rather humid airmass in progress this afternoon with heat
indices in the 95-106 degree range across many areas. The heat
advisory that surrounds the i-95 corridor one will continue through
7 pm this evening.

As we go through the night, a weak cold front is forecast to settle
into our area from the northwest. This should take the dew points
down a little mainly across the northern areas. There does not
appear to be much in the way of forcing overnight, therefore opted
to go dry with less cloud cover. Some local fog and low clouds
cannot be ruled out again especially along and south of the surface
front where dew points are higher.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The flow aloft Tuesday is forecast to be more zonal, however a short
wave trough which looks to be convectively enhanced is forecast to
be approaching the upper ohio valley later in the afternoon. This is
pretty much tracking along a west to east weak cold front that
should become nearly stationary across our area. This will result in
some cooling and also lowering dew points along and north of it,
however how far south the lowered dew points get is more uncertain.

As a result for now, we will continue with the heat advisory Tuesday
for the urban i-95 corridor from trenton to philadelphia to
wilmington however this is of lower confidence given much of the
guidance is cooler (some lower dew points).

For the convective potential, some showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop mainly from mid-afternoon onward near and south
of the stalled front. There looks to be a light northeast to
southeast surface flow, and this may help to keep much of the
convective development south and just west of our area for much of
the day. As a result, made some adjustments to the pops to reflect
this idea. The severe thunderstorm risk looks low as it appears we
would have to wait for any organized storms to arrive from the west.

The SPC currently has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from
berks county southward to portions of delaware and marylands eastern
shore.

For Tuesday night, an incoming short wave trough that looks to be
convectively enhanced will near closer. Some downstream warm air
advection and also isentropic lift over a lingering surface front
may help so develop or sustain some convection. The chance of this
looks to be the highest across the northern zones and the higher
pops were placed there. Low temperatures are mainly a continuity and
mos blend.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Unsettled pattern continues through Thursday before high pressure
builds in across the eastern us.

On Wednesday, the back door frontal boundary that stalls near the
area Tuesday is forecast to return northward as a warm front early
in the day. Some showers will be possible early in the day as the
front lifts northward, but the better chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon as a couple of short
waves vorticity impulses aloft interact with a lee-side thermal
trough that remains across the mid-atlantic region. It will remain
quite warm and humid, with temperatures several degrees above normal
and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, so there will remain a
fair amount of instability across the area with CAPE values reaching
1,500-2,000 j kg. Bulk shear is not overly impressive at 25 to 30
knots as mid level winds are fairly weak. Nevertheless, there will
remain a chance for some of the strongest updrafts to produce
locally damaging winds and large hail. SPC has our area outlined in
a marginal risk for severe weather. Another concern on Wednesday
will be the threat for heavy rainfall. Pw values reach 1.75-2.00
inches and storm motions do not appear to be very fast so any
thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producing storms and
could cause flooding concerns. The shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected to diminish overnight Wednesday as daytime instability
wanes and the short wave vorticity impulses from the afternoon
passes eastward.

A cold front is forecast to move into the area late Wednesday night
into early Thursday, before sliding eastward through the day. As the
day wears on, instability will build ahead of the cold front, while
shear begins to increase. There will be a chance for some strong
thunderstorms to develop, which could produce strong winds and hail.

Heavy rain will continue to be a concern as pw values increase to 2+
inches, so any storms that develop will likely be efficient rain
producing storms. The storms will likely continue for eastern areas
as the front progresses eastward, but as the front moves offshore,
showers and thunderstorms will come to an end.

The forecast for Friday remains uncertain as differences continue
between the GFS and ecmwf. The GFS pushes the front far enough south
to keep the area dry, while the ECMWF has the front stalling just to
our south with an area of low pressure moving along the boundary.

This would bring a period of rainfall to much of the area Friday.

The previous model run of the ECMWF had the front and low, but not
as far north but still had some precipitation for parts of the area.

For now, we will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
southern half of the area due to the uncertainty.

Saturday through Monday are expected to stay dry. High pressure
builds across the northeast and mid-atlantic region on Saturday,
then builds to our northeast on Sunday and moves offshore on Monday.

As the high builds offshore, there may be an increase in cloud
cover, but conditions are expected to remain dry across the
forecast area.

Temperatures for Friday through Monday are expected to be below
normal and dewpoints will be much lower than the next few days.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...VFR overall. Some showers and thunderstorms
around, which will result in local MVFR ifr conditions and strong
wind gusts for a brief time. Given low enough coverage, continued
with a vcts mention. Southwesterly winds 5-10 knots, but more south
at acy and perhaps westerly at rdg and abe.

Tonight...VFR outside of any lingering showers and thunderstorms
this evening, then some local stratus and or fog cannot be ruled out
overnight. Light westerly winds or light and variable calm.

Tuesday... Local MVFR early due to possible fog, otherwiseVFR. Some
showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon into the
overnight, resulting in temporary MVFR ifr conditions. Light winds
becoming northeast to east then southeast 4-8 knots during Tuesday,
then becoming light and variable at night.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... GenerallyVFR conditions
expected. MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. South-
southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
possible.

Thursday through Thursday night... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. West-southwest
winds around 5 to 10 knot veering to the west-northwest later in the
day and overnight behind a cold front. Winds could gust 15 to 20
knots behind the cold front overnight at times.

Friday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 5 to 10
knots may gust 15 to 20 knots at times.

Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Northerly winds less than 10
knots.

Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through Tuesday night. A wind shift from southerly to
northeast and east will occur later tonight into Tuesday, before
shifting southeasterly. Some thunderstorms into this evening will
produce locally strong winds greater than 40 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... Conditions expected to remain
below advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots and
seas approach 4 to near 5 feet at times.

Thursday through Thursday night... There is a chance winds and waves
may approach advisory levels for the southern new jersey and
delaware coastal waters Thursday into Thursday night. The rest of
the waters are expected to remain below advisory levels.

Friday through Saturday... Conditions are expected to be below
advisory levels on Friday and Saturday..

Rip currents...

a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues
through tonight with southerly winds and waves around 2 feet in the
surf zone.

For Tuesday, a low risk is anticipated once again despite a
northeast wind becoming east to southeast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for paz060>062-101-
103-105.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for paz070-071-102-104-
106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for njz007>010-012-
013-020-027.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Robertson meola
aviation... Gorse robertson meola
marine... Gorse robertson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 10 mi60 min SSW 7 G 8.9 75°F 81°F1014.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 17 mi54 min W 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 80°F1014.3 hPa
BDSP1 30 mi60 min 82°F 82°F1014.2 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 34 mi60 min 82°F 81°F1013.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 36 mi60 min ENE 12 G 14 73°F 78°F1014.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi60 min 86°F 78°F1013 hPa
MHRN6 39 mi60 min SE 5.1 G 8.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi60 min SSW 11 G 14 80°F 1012.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi60 min S 11 69°F 1014 hPa59°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi60 min 83°F 76°F1013.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 48 mi40 min SSW 18 G 21 78°F 76°F1014.3 hPa72°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ11 mi34 minS 410.00 miThunderstorm74°F67°F79%1013.7 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ14 mi37 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F70°F61%1012.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi90 minSSE 1510.00 miThunderstorm88°F75°F66%1013.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi34 minS 11 G 196.00 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain77°F72°F85%1014.2 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA24 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair86°F71°F61%1014 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi34 minSW 20 G 272.00 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy75°F73°F94%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWRI

Wind History from WRI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE3S6CalmSE5S4S4SW7SW5SW3SW3CalmSW5SW5W4W6W9SW6W8W6W8S4
1 day agoSE5S9S7SE5S4S3S4S4S4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3Calm--S9S14
G25
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2 days agoSE8E5SE6E3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4E3E5NE5E4CalmNE3CalmS3SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT     8.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     7.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.82.35.27.38.18.37.664.22.91.81.10.61.23.76.47.57.97.86.54.73.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey (2)
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Trenton
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     8.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     7.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.11.43.86.47.88.48.16.95.54.12.91.91.10.82.356.87.67.775.74.43.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.