Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 7:43PM Friday August 23, 2019 2:50 AM EDT (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:50PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 936 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and early morning.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 936 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A slow moving cold front will track through the forecast area tonight into Friday. The front will settle well to our south through early next week as high pressure builds to our north. The high will retreat northward on Wednesday as low pressure lifts northward off the eastern seaboard and a cold front approaches the region from the west. The cold front is then forecast to move into the mid-atlantic region late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune City , NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230436
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1236 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A slow moving cold front will track through the forecast area
tonight into Friday. The front will settle well to our south through
early next week as high pressure builds to our north. The high will
retreat northward on Wednesday as low pressure lifts northward off
the eastern seaboard and a cold front approaches the region from the
west. The cold front is then forecast to move into the mid-atlantic
region late next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1230 am update: showers have redeveloped from long island west-
southwest to the harrisburg area. Some of these showers have
occasionally produced lightning. Meanwhile, the precipitation
upstream of the line of storms moving through DELMARVA and
southern new jersey has featured fairly frequent anvil
lightning. For these reasons, increased pops the rest of the
night across the area and maintained isolated thunder mention as
well.

Moisture-channel imagery indicates a couple of vorticity maxima
are associated with the current convection. The first is
approaching the coast, with the precipitation likely to move
offshore with it in the next 2 to 3 hours. However, another
perturbation is expected to strengthen as large-scale ascent
increases downstream of a digging shortwave trough to the north.

As such, expect the showers along the i-78 corridor to remain
for much of the night as they slowly migrate eastward.

Temperature forecast remains unchanged for now, given the quite
heterogeneous chaotic behavior associated with the
precipitation.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
1230 am update: I expanded pops northward given initial glance
at 00z guidance. Would not be surprised to see fairly widespread
precipitation along south of the i-76 corridor this afternoon
with more scattered precipitation extending as far north as the
i-78 corridor. This will be somewhat dependent on convection
farther south, which may ultimately dampen coverage in our area
as descent surrounding the more-widespread precipitation
develops. However, hi-res models are virtually unanimous in
providing another round of storms near south of philadelphia.

Previous discussion...

the cold front is forecast to extend across far southern new jersey,
central delaware and adjacent areas of northeastern maryland around
daybreak on Friday. It expected expected to drift southward,
reaching the virginia capes late in the day. The slow movement of
the boundary will translate into a very gradual improving trend from
north to south in our region on Friday.

We will keep a chance of showers from the philadelphia metropolitan
area and southern new jersey southward for Friday morning. We will
limit the mention of showers to areas from about dover de and ocean
city nj southward for the afternoon. It appears as though any
substantial instability will have drifted to our south by Friday
morning, so we will not include any thunder.

It should remain mostly cloudy across northeastern maryland,
delaware and southern new jersey through the day. However, some
clearing from the northwest and north is anticipated for eastern
pennsylvania, and for northern and central new jersey.

The wind is expected to be from the northwest and north around 10
mph. Temperatures will be considerably cooler than those of recent
days with highs mostly in the 80 degree neighborhood. Readings will
likely not get above the lower and middle 70s in the elevated
terrain on the poconos and far northern new jersey.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
The long term forecast will begin with below normal
temperatures and more comfortable dewpoints and end with normal
to above normal temperatures and greater chances of convectively
driven precipitation.

For Friday night, lingering showers and thunderstorms could remain
across southern new jersey, and southern delaware and maryland. Pw
values remain near 2.0 inches, so some locally heavy rain is
possible.

Saturday could end up the better of weekend days as high pressure
builds well to our north across eastern canada and winds just start
to turn onshore. Temperatures will be below normal.

The period between Sunday and Tuesday, could see more cloud cover
and light precipitation. This is due to a persistent onshore flow.

Guidance, for a couple of days now, is showing precipitation for
this period. However onshore flow can manifest itself in a number
ways... Low clouds, fog, drizzle or light rain. At a minimum, expect
some cloud cover along the coastal plain.

As we move into Wednesday and Thursday, unsettled weather should
return to the area. An area of low pressure is forecast to be
lifting northward offshore of the east coast, while a cold front
approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
develop as the cold front nears the forecast area.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... MainlyVFR, though brief sub-vfr conditions
may occur in showers, especially at rdg abe ttn and miv acy.

Cannot rule out lightning, at least at miv acy through 09z or
so. Winds will be light but erratic.

Friday... MainlyVFR, but there is a chance of more storms
near south of phl, especially during the afternoon. Brief sub-
vfr conditions may occur. Winds becoming northwest or north
around 10 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR except MVFR possible across southern nj, southern
de, and the eastern shore of md due to showers and thunderstorms. N
to NE winds mainly 5 to 10 kts.

Saturday-Saturday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. MVFR
conditions possible at kacy and kmiv Saturday night as an onshore
flow generates some clouds. Winds generally NE 5-10 knots.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions possible at
kacy and kmiv as an onshore flow generates some clouds drizzle light
rain. NE winds 5-10 kts with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Sunday night-Tuesday... More widespread MVFR conditions developing
with the persistent onshore flow. E to NE winds 5-10 kts with gusts
up to 20 kts possible.

Marine
A south to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots this evening, becoming
northwest to north around 10 knots overnight. North wind around 10
knots on Friday, becoming variable 10 knots or less late in the day.

Waves on our ocean waters are forecast to be around 2 to 3 feet.

Waves on delaware bay are expected to be 2 feet or less.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday... Sub-sca conditions expected much of the
period. Low end SCA conditions possible late Saturday.

Saturday night... Low end SCA conditions possible due to long fetch e
to NE winds developing.

Sunday-Tuesday... A prolonged low end SCA may be needed through the
period as long fetch E to NE winds persist.

Rip currents...

a northerly wind around 10 mph is expected for Friday. Breaking
waves around 2 to 3 feet are likely along with a medium period
southerly swell. A low risk is forecast.

A long duration northeast to east wind is expected for the weekend
and into the early part of the new week. As a result, we are
anticipating a prolonged period with an enhanced risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents from Saturday through at
least Tuesday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo
near term... Cms
short term... Cms iovino
long term... Kruzdlo
aviation... Cms kruzdlo
marine... Iovino kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi56 min W 6 G 8 75°F 79°F1013.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi40 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 74°F1012.3 hPa71°F
44091 32 mi50 min 77°F4 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi56 min 73°F 78°F1013.2 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi62 min WSW 5.1 G 8
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi56 min W 8 G 8.9 74°F 1013.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi56 min 73°F 77°F1013.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi56 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 82°F1013.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi74 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 74°F 82°F1012.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi56 min NW 5.1 G 7 73°F 75°F1013.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi60 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 74°F 75°F4 ft1012.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi1.9 hrsNW 310.00 miLight Rain72°F71°F97%1013.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi4.8 hrsSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds79°F73°F85%1012.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi1.9 hrsSW 710.00 miRain0°F0°F%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW5SW4SW5W4W6W10W11W8W8SW8W11W8SW5W7SW5SW4SW5S7S6N5CalmNW3NW3
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S9SW8SW11SW11
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2 days agoW3CalmNW4NW3NW3NE6NE9E8NE9E7E9E7E6SE5SE7SE6SE5SE3SE4S4CalmS4CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
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Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.93.83.42.51.610.80.91.32.23.244.44.54.13.42.51.81.41.21.21.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.