Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 3:41 PM   Moonset 4:29 AM

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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 154 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
This afternoon - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers.Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Sat night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 3 ft at 8 seconds. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Sun night - W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and nw 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ400 154 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 191757 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 157 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves across the region tonight, then continues to track south and east of the region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the west and will be over the area into the middle of next week. A cold front passes through on Wednesday, followed by high pressure to close out the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast is relatively on track this afternoon. Low clouds have kept things a bit cooler, so nudged down hourly temperatures a few degrees. A quite cool spring day overall. Previous full discussion follows...

In the wake of a backdoor cold front, high pressure will remain centered near Nova Scotia and the Gulf of Maine with ridging extending southward across the Mid-Atlantic for Friday. However, an area of low pressure cutting across the Great Lakes will send a cold front across the Appalachians tonight, as that high pressure and ridging quickly gives way. A steep inversion with low clouds trapped across our region along with chilly northeast flow in the boundary layer will result in another generally gloomy day, though as the ridge shifts east, winds will turn more southeasterly, allowing for a little milder air to push in.
Additionally, while the day will start off chilly with temperatures in the low to mid 40s for most spots, cloud bases will be noticeably higher along with an absence of any drizzle, compared to the damp conditions Thursday morning. The exception will be right around the Pocono Plateau and some of the adjacent ridgetops into NW NJ early this morning. Highs will reach farther into the 50s, with even some low 60s possible from around Philadelphia southward into the Delmarva.

This afternoon as a weak pre-frontal shortwave trough and some isentropic lift combine, scattered light showers will begin to spread eastward across Pennsylvania, with isolated showers possibly reaching the I-95 corridor toward sunset. Scattered showers will then spread eastward across the coastal plain toward midnight, then gradually taper off from west to east, with just some lingering activity along the coast after sunrise on Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will only be around a tenth of an inch. Some patchy fog may develop at times overnight, but dense fog is not expected.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Dry conditions for the local area for the Short Term period. The cold front continues to track to the south and east of the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend, but the tail end of the front will extend back through the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast. High pressure builds over the region for the weekend and start of the new work week. Low pressure develops on that old front and will begin to push the front back north as a warm front, but the system will stay well south of the region, and any rainfall on Sunday will stay south of Delaware.

Chilly temperatures in place. Highs will be in the upper 50s to around 60 on Sunday, and then in the low to mid 60s on Monday. Lows generally in the 30s to low 40s. There may be some patchy frost in the southern Poconos late Saturday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Elongated high pressure along the East Coast slides out to sea Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure approaching from the west will drag a cold front through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday, bringing at least a chance for area-wide showers across the region during that time, though will also carry likely PoPs for areas north and west of the I-95 corridor.

Temperatures moderate to near normal levels ahead of this front with highs generally in the mid and upper 60s. Behind the passage of the cold front, cold air advection will be underway, and highs drop back into the upper 50s and low 60s Thursday before rebounding on Friday.

One thing to look out for is the potential for frost development late Monday night and Tuesday morning, mainly for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s with light winds and Max RH values around 70 percent. Will carry patchy frost for those areas.

Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will drop into the 30s for most areas. It is too soon to determine if conditions will promote frost development.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Today...MVFR CIGs with no visibility restrictions expected. Winds out of the southeast around 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...Ceilings lowering into the IFR range for the most part (the exception being KABE/KRDG who are right on the MVFR/IFR border). Rain will generally be light for areas that do see showers, so not expecting much in terms of visibility restrictions. Outside of KACY, visibility of 5 miles or less has a probability of 20-40% after midnight, so can't rule it out entirely. Have higher confidence in reduced visibility at KACY.
This in part due to the potential for some marine fog coming onshore in addition to the scattered showers. Winds out of the south/southeast around 5 kt, becoming west/northwesterly late tonight once the cold front moves through. Moderate confidence overall.

Saturday...MVFR CIGs to start, lifting to VFR by the late morning as skies clear out. West/northwest winds around 10 kt with some spots seeing gusts near 20 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR conditions until Tuesday night, then possible sub-VFR conditions in SHRA Tuesday night and Wednesday.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect currently for all the ocean zones due to elevated seas from stronger NE winds on Thursday and Thursday night. SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters through late tonight as seas around 6-7 ft this morning gradually lower toward 5 ft into tonight. Otherwise, winds are gradually easing this morning, ENE 10-15 kt, tending SE 5-10 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Tranquil conditions for most of the new week, then VSBY restrictions in showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions Saturday night through Tuesday night, and then potential SCA conditions Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Will go ahead and issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the eastern shores of Maryland. It is now around the time of high tide, and water levels have exceeded minor thresholds, and should exceed advisory level thresholds shortly.

Spotty minor tidal flooding was observed within some of the back bay communities of Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE this morning. Some minor tidal flooding remains possible through tomorrow morning around high tide within Barnegat Bay. Tidal flooding is not expected oceanside for any communities.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ015- 019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.

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Shark River Hills
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Fri -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:57 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shark River Hills, New Jersey, Tide feet

Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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