Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 1:34 PM   Moonset 2:36 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1124 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
Overnight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Showers likely late this evening, then chance of showers late. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1124 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 160552 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 152 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure will remain offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday, before drifting out to sea. High pressure tries to build down into the area from the northeast over the weekend, but never fully makes it into the area before another area of low pressure moves across the central Appalachians and offshore of the North Carolina coast later Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure may finally build across the area early next week, before a cold front moves across the east coast by mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
We'll have more of the same today and tonight as the coastal low remains just east of the region, and will stay there especially through the day today. It should eventually start to very slowly drift northeastward away from our region late tonight.

While there will likely be some additional light rain or drizzle along eastern portions of the coastal plains, for most of the region, the main impacts will be continued cloudy and (relatively) cool conditions. Highs today will be mostly in the 60s, except in Berks, Lehigh Valley, and western portions of Delmarva, where a few breaks in the clouds during the day may allow for enough solar insolation to result in some lower 70s.

Later tonight, the primary concern is fog potential. Mid level short wave ridging builds in over the region. This subsidence coming during the overnight hours could result in a nearly saturated boundary layer. There remains some uncertainty though if it will be more of a low stratus or fog event - that will likely be dependent on if we see any breaks in the persistent low/mid level clouds during the evening hours.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
Low pressure pinwheeling offshore finally moves out to sea Friday night. The forecast dries out for Friday as high pressure tries to begin nosing down into the area from the northeast. Most of Friday night should remain dry as well, except possibly late in the overnight showers may begin to move in from the west.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled weather can be expected for portions of the area this weekend, especially for the southern third of the area from southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland. As an area of low pressure will move across the central Appalachians, then offshore of the North Carolina coast Saturday into Sunday, a warm front will lift northward, but remain south of the area.
However, there will be enough moisture and lift across the area for periods of showers to develop across the southern areas.
High pressure tries to build down from the north, but never fully sets in, but it may have enough effect on the area to keep the weather mostly dry for the northern portions area; however, there will remain a chance of showers even for northern areas given the proximity of the low and front to the south.

By early next week, the low pressure to the south will begin to drift out to sea, while high pressure briefly affects the Mid Atlantic region. Dry weather is expected Monday into Tuesday. As we move into next Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move into the eastern seaboard, bringing an increase in shower chances.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through 12Z...In general, expect the higher conditions (MVFR to VFR) to be at KRDG, KILG, KPNE and KPHL, with the lowest (mostly IFR)
persisting at KACY. KABE, and KTTN will likely be hovering around MVFR for much of the period. The determining factor will likely be ceiling heights, except at KACY where there has been transient fog reported. As there are breaks in the lower clouds, could see highly variable conditions at some sites, so reality will likely be much more complicated that what is in the TAFs, but have tried to convey the overall trends. Winds generally NNW around 10 kt, but could start to back to NNE by sunrise. Moderate confidence on the overall trends, but low confidence on the details (especially timing of flight category changes)

Today....Lower clouds will linger for much of the day. However, for the I95 TAF sites (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, and KILG) and the SE PA sites (KRDG and KABE), the clouds are likely to be on the cusp of MVFR to IFR, so there is uncertainty on which side of the threshold the ceilings will be. At KMIV, expect persistent MVFR ceilings, and at KACY ceilings are likely to be on the cusp of the IFR to MVFR threshold. Winds should generally settle out of the NNE at 10-15 kts with some gusts to around 20 kts.
Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exactly which flight category the ceilings will be in.

Tonight...This evening, expect similar conditions as what is prevailing through the day. However, near or after midnight, if we see any breaks in the clouds, it could be enough for fog to develop, resulting in IFR or lower conditions. It will be very localized if it does develop, so low confidence on it occuring at any one TAF site. NE winds continue, but speeds should diminish to less than 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Friday-Saturday...VFR conditions expected.

Saturday night...VFR conditions early, then MVFR or IFR ceilings overnight with a chance of showers.

Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR or IFR conditions with a chance of showers.

Monday...Conditions improving to VFR.

MARINE
For the Atlantic coastal waters, expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue today and tonight.

On the Delaware Bay, though there may be some gusts around 20 kt, expect them to stay below 25kt, thus, no SCA conditions are anticipated at this time.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Small Craft Advisory level seas likely continue through the night, but winds diminish below advisory levels during the overnight.

Friday...Small Craft Advisory levels seas may continue into Friday.

Friday night-Saturday night...Conditions remain below advisory levels.

Sunday-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible, mainly due to seas although winds could gust around 20 knots.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.

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Trenton, New Jersey, Tide feet

Assiscunk Creek
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Wed -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:58 AM EDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:20 AM EDT     6.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:42 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:03 PM EDT     6.19 feet High Tide
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Assiscunk Creek, Route 130 bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet

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