Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Camp Hill, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) The deep low pressure of an unusually strong Alberta Clipper will pass to our north on Friday and Friday night. Expect strong winds Friday afternoon and evening for most of Central PA, and a coating of snow for the northern mountains.

2) A warm front on Sunday will bring warmer and more humid air that will linger into early Monday before a strong cold front brings a period of rain Monday followed by colder, drier air and gusty winds again late Monday into Tuesday.

3) Potential for another round of strong winds again Monday into next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: The deep low pressure of an unusually strong Alberta Clipper will pass to our north on Friday and Friday night. Expect strong winds Friday afternoon and evening for most of Central PA, and a coating of snow for the northern mountains.

After consultation with BUF, we've expanded the wind advisory for tomorrow/night into McKean County. It might be tough to squeeze out gusts of 50 MPH over the rest of the nrn tier and central mountains. Probabilities are fairly low for 45+MPH gusts north, but a certainty (80-100%) for the Laurels, Clearfield and nrn Centre Co. The strongest winds/gusts for the nrn tier may not occur until a little later in the evening and through the nighttime hours (later than the Laurels/rest of the area as the system departs.

The Clipper will make some snow across the nrn tier, too. HRRR probabilities are high for - and many deterministic models drop 1-2 inches of snowfall over the northern two tiers of zones. The temps during the middle of the day and the amount of sun received before-hand in the central mtns will have a big say in how much can actually stick. Temps are most favorable across the north, and especially in the AM and again after the cold front passes (lake effect) for snow to build up in the north. Again, 1-2" amounts are most likely for the top tier of PA, and T-1" for the other counties down south to the I-80 corridor. Happy Valley may get a slushy coat of less then half of an inch, but melting and vert temp profiles indicate a mix or even just rain in the aftn here, locally.

Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warm front on Sunday will bring warmer and more humid air that will linger into early Monday before a strong cold front brings a period of rain Monday followed by colder, drier air and gusty winds again late Monday into Tuesday.

Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into the upper 40s and 50s Sunday, and perhaps even the low 60s to start the day Monday. Very strong winds are likely on Monday-Mon night, too, due to the very tight pressure gradient. Much colder air pushes back in behind the cold front later Monday with cold temps sticking around into the middle of next week.
Latest NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below average. A return to near normal maxes appears likely on Thursday/Fri.

KEY MESSAGE 3: While the airmass for Monday not likely to be as unstable as what we just had yesterday (Wed) the combination of very strong dynamics and a deep low tracking to our north and west, would expect some strong wind gust next Monday, lingering into Tuesday, as abnormally cold air is advected southward into central PA, behind the cold front, as noted in the section above.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Winds have calmed over the last several hours and skies are now mostly clear around the region save for some mid level stratus over JST, providing VFR conditions across the region into Friday morning. Mid and high clouds associated with a clipper system move in from the west just before sunrise and will spread eastward through the morning. The warm front associated with this system will track through the region during the late morning and early afternoon, bringing light snow showers to BFD and IPT. Model RH profiles from the RAP and NAM suggest MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely at BFD as these snow showers move through, though the LAMP continues to show IFR conditions developing. This appears to be an outlier. Additional rain and snow showers are expected ahead of a cold front during the late afternoon and evening. These appear more likely to result in IFR restrictions at BFD. All other sites should remain VFR, though IPT may see ceilings drop to MVFR late in the 00Z TAF period.
Overall confidence in impactful snowshowers outside of BFD is low (<30%).

Wind gusts increase through the morning as a very tight pressure gradient sets up across Central PA. Winds out of the south- southwest will gust as high as 40 to 45 knots at BFD, JST, and AOO, while all other sites will see gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range. LLWS concerns develop by 00Z Saturday at MDT and LNS as the surface winds decrease slightly and winds 2000 feet above the surface remain in the 40 to 50 knot range. Surface winds at all other TAF sites will remain too high through the end of the 00Z TAF period to include LLWS for now, but wind shear may be a concern farther to the north and west Friday night into Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Sat...Becoming VFR.

Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of PA. Restrictions possible.

Mon...Cold frontal passage. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA with IFR possible. Then turning blustery and colder. Post-frontal IFR or low-MVFR cigs expected (90%) across the west, and IFR possible N/W (60%).

Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN NW. IFR poss (40%).

EQUIPMENT
The KCCX is back up as of late afternoon work is done for the day.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ004-005-010-017-018-024-025-033-034.