Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:42PM Saturday August 24, 2019 8:05 AM EDT (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:07AMMoonset 2:53PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 616 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 616 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure across the upper great lakes region this morning will continue to move east across southern canada today and tonight. The high will try to spread down the east coast, but not fully make it into the area. The high will retreat north and east next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow an area of low pressure to lift northward off the eastern seaboard during the mid week period and a cold front to track through the area later next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240907
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
507 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across the upper great lakes region this morning
will continue to move east across southern canada today and
tonight. The high will try to spread down the east coast, but
not fully make it into the area. The high will retreat north and
east next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow an area of low
pressure to lift northward off the eastern seaboard during the
mid week period and a cold front to track through the area
later next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A trough of low pressure will remain aloft while a surface high
pressure area moves across southern canada today. This will
bring more cooler and drier air from the north into our region.

We'll see more sunshine than Friday, so highs will be 4 to 6
degrees warmer that yesterday, but highs will be below normal
for mid-late august. Readings will top out in the low mid 70s
n W and close to 80 across SE pa, south nj and delmarva. Winds
will be mostly N to NE at 5 to 10 mph this morning and the NE to
e at 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. Some mid high level clouds
will move across the SRN areas this morning and into the
afternoon, but overall a nice day expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
High pressure will continue to strengthen while it moves to
me SRN quebec. This will bring an increasing NE to E flow across
our area and could result in some increasing low clouds and
perhaps some light rains near the coast towards daybreak Sunday.

We have kept the slight chc pops and increased the clouds for
these areas. Low will be cool with readings dropping into the
mid upper 50s N W and over the pine barrens of nj. Elsewhere,
readings will be in the 60s with mid upper 60s near the shore
with the nearby warmer waters. Winds will be NE to E at 5 to 10 mph.

The winds will be higher near the shore with 10 to 15 mph more
common there.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Main concerns for the medium-range forecast include the effects
of prolonged onshore flow Sunday through Tuesday and a cold-
frontal passage during the middle of next week.

A fairly quiet period is in store for the area, but as usual,
some subtle details are uncertain and may end up making a big
difference in sensible weather "quality" the next few days.

Perhaps the biggest question is the ultimate result of a
lengthy period of east to northeast winds across the area late
this weekend into early next week. Operational models have been
hinting for a while at the development and inland penetration of
lower clouds and possibly some light precipitation as the
surface high to our north northeast lingers the next few days.

It appears the primary window for this potential is Sunday and
Monday, as an upper low lingers off the coast on Sunday before
drifting off to the northeast Monday. This will promote some
ageostrophic acceleration southward on the east side of the
appalachians, allowing the surface high to build southward a bit
through this period. Eventually, the flow should become
somewhat more northeasterly or even north-northeasterly Sunday
night as the acceleration peaks, and this will aid in shunting
the higher low-level moisture content southward. By Monday, the
effects may primarily be in lower DELMARVA and perhaps the far
southeastern portions of new jersey with improvement in
conditions to the north. Far western portions of the area may
be much sunnier during this entire period.

Confidence is low on just how far inland the thicker clouds and
even light precipitation make it, but decided to go a little
bit more pessimistic than consensus (which is close to the
previous forecast). Kept temperatures close to continuity and a
statistical blend during this period as well, but there may be
a more pronounced gradient between the coast and the western cwa
depending on how far inland the clouds make it (and how long
they last).

By Tuesday, the effects of a tropically-induced low off the
coast will generally become most pronounced. The surface high to
the north is expected to retreat northeastward, permitting a
return to more easterly surface flow. Anticipating an increase
in clouds and low-grade chances of showers. Think most of the
precipitation will be to the south of the area, but given
uncertainty with the track of the low, felt some low pops remain
warranted. Additionally, should see some warming temperatures
as low-level flow begins to tap into warmer moister air in
association with the low.

The good news is a well-timed trough will deepen and progress
eastward into the great lakes on Wednesday, which will force the
low off the coast well away from the area. There will be an
attendant cold front associated with the trough, with timing
Wednesday night (plus or minus) for our area. The ECMWF is more
aggressive with generating some storms along the front. The gfs
is drier, which appears to be tied to how close the low off the
coast tracks toward the area and the residual influence of the
retreating surface high. The GFS is closer with the low track
and stronger with the residual effects of the surface high,
which precludes convection from maintaining itself as it reaches
the area. The ECMWF is farther offshore with both, allowing
more substantial large-scale lift to reach the area. Suspect the
ecmwf is a little too aggressive, particularly with the retreat
of the high to the north. For now, maintained chance pops
Wednesday and Wednesday night given the uncertainty (only
somewhat higher than climatology).

Should see improving conditions late next week as high pressure
builds in from the west.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
Today...VFR expected. N winds 5 to 10 knots early, then NE 8 to
12 knots late morning and into the afternoon. Some gusts close
to 20 knots near kacy late morning and afternoon. Sct-bkn
050-060 kmiv kacy this afternoon.

Tonight..Vfr continues. Low clouds possible late near the shore
towards dawn Sunday. Confid is not high enough to include in
tafs attm. E winds 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday... MainlyVFR, though sub-vfr conditions may occur near
the coast (including miv acy) as low ceilings move in with the
persistence of onshore flow. Cannot rule out some drizzle or
light rain showers near the coast as well. East to northeast
winds 7 to 15 kts with stronger gusts possible near the coast.

Low confidence.

Sunday night through Tuesday night... Conditions possibly
varying fromVFR to MVFR as lower ceilings move farther inland
and retreat at times during the period. May see some drizzle fog
as well near the coast. Winds mainly east or northeast 5 to 15
kts, with higher gusts possible near the coast. Directions may
become more southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. Very low
confidence.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR as winds become more
southerly southwesterly (up to around 10 kts). A chance of
storms, especially north west of phl. Low confidence.

Marine
High pressure moving north of the waters today and tonight will cause
winds to be mostly N or NE today and then NE to E tonight. Winds
and seas will slowly increase to near SCA conditions for awhile
both this afternoon and late tonight. Not really expecting the sca
conditions to persist too long with only perhaps a gust or two and
a few seas nearing 5 ft. We'll hold on the SCA flag for now, although
a short term SCA is possible later. Fair weather today and a slight
chc for a shower late tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday... Advisory conditions possible at times
through the period as steady east to northeast winds persist,
with seas building to around or slightly above 5 feet. Some
drizzle or light precipitation is possible at times as well.

Rip currents...

increasing northeasterly winds and seas building to around 4 ft
by the afternoon will result in a moderate risk of rip currents
today.

This elevated rip current risk (either moderate or at times
high) is expected to persist until at least Tuesday as a
prolonged period of onshore flow and elevated seas looks likely.

Tides coastal flooding
A prolonged northeast to east flow is expected today through at
least Tuesday. This persistent onshore fetch, combined with increasing
astronomical tides due to an approaching new moon on Thursday,
will likely lead to increasing coastal water levels. Guidance is
already indicating that minor coastal flooding is becoming more
likely Monday and Tuesday over delaware bay and portions of the
nj shore.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo o'hara
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms o'hara
marine... Cms o'hara
tides coastal flooding... Cms kruzdlo o'hara robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi36 min NNE 18 G 19 68°F 72°F1020.2 hPa58°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi48 min NNE 9.9 G 15 66°F 77°F1021 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi54 min 1021.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi48 min N 9.9 G 13 65°F 1020.9 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi48 min N 12 G 13
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi48 min 66°F 76°F1021 hPa
44091 34 mi36 min 74°F5 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi76 min NNE 19 G 21 69°F 73°F4 ft1019.2 hPa (+2.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi48 min ENE 8.9 G 13 65°F 74°F1021.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi48 min ENE 4.1 G 7

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi70 minN 310.00 miFair61°F57°F87%1020.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7--NW8N10NW9NW5NW8W6NW10NW6W3W4CalmNW3NW3--NW5--NW6NW6--N5N5N3
1 day ago--W10W11W8W8SW8W11W8SW5W7SW5SW4SW5S7S6----NW3--N3----W4NW5
2 days ago----SW8SW11SW11
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SW10SE3SW8S10S9S6S5--SW5----SW4SW5--SW5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Sat -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:58 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.73.93.632.11.410.811.62.63.64.34.64.543.22.31.71.311.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:49 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:46 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:11 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.83.93.62.921.30.90.91.11.82.83.74.44.74.53.93.12.21.61.211.21.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.