Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Branch, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:09PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:06 AM EDT (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:28PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 4 to 7 ft late this morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers early this morning. Patchy fog early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening, then 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S after midnight, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 317 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak area of high pressure slides across our area today then shifts to our northeast tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front will cross our area late Tuesday, then high pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday before shifting offshore Friday. The next cold front moves through later Friday, with low pressure along it sliding to our south and east Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds across new england.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Branch, NJ
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location: 40.28, -73.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210729
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
329 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
A weak area of high pressure slides across our area today then
shifts to our northeast tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front
will cross our area late Tuesday, then high pressure builds in for
Wednesday and Thursday before shifting offshore Friday. The next
cold front moves through later Friday, with low pressure along it
sliding to our south and east Saturday into Sunday as high pressure
builds across new england.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pressure centered about 150 miles east of atlantic city will
drift to the east today and out to sea. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will pass through the region.

With abundant low level moisture still in place, fog and low clouds
will persist through a few hours after daybreak. Fog will dissipate
and clouds will lift and scatter out between 9am-11am.

Skies should become mostly sunny for most of the region, although
mid and high clouds may linger along the new jersey and delaware
coasts as clouds wrap around the departing low.

Highs will top off in the mid and upper 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
High pressure moves offshore this evening, and then a cold front
approaches from the west. Clouds will increase and thicken after
midnight, but precip should hold off until after daybreak Tuesday.

Lows will be in the 40s and 50s, but if clouds are slower to arrive,
then there is the potential for radiational cooling prior to
midnight that could result in colder than forecast temps.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Summary... A cold front moves through late Tuesday, followed by
another cold front later Friday. Low pressure along the tailend of
the cold front tracks to our south and east Saturday into Sunday
while high pressure builds across new england.

Synoptic overview... A significant trough from the upper great lakes
to the lower mississippi valley Tuesday shifts northeast and lifts
into canada and new england. The southeastern part of this large
trough may take on some negative tilt late Tuesday into Wednesday as
it crosses the northeast. The flow turns briefly more zonal during
the midweek time frame before another trough amplifies from the
midwest through the plains late Wednesday into Friday. This feature
then shifts eastward through the weekend, however the southern
portion of the trough looks to close off across the southern states
and this introduces more uncertainty especially with timing into the
east along with sensible weather impacts.

For Tuesday... A strong area of low pressure is forecast to track
across the western great lakes and into adjacent canada. The
associated upper-level trough may take on some negative tilt as it
arrives across the northeast late Tuesday night. An associated cold
front is expected to move across our region late Tuesday as a weak
surface low develops along it as it crosses our region. This may
tend to enhance the showers for a time, with the stronger forcing
sliding mostly across our northern areas. Given easterly low-level
flow ahead of the system, a few light showers cannot be ruled out
during the day with the main band of showers arriving later in the
afternoon and especially in the evening from west to east.

The guidance continues to keep lots of clouds in place given the low-
level warm air advection occurring with an easterly surface flow.

This will have an impact on the instability. The south to southwest
flow above the easterly low-level flow is forecast to strengthen
late in the day, and this will result in decent shear especially
from DELMARVA southward. The forecast soundings however show limited
instability at best. Based on this and also collaborating with our
neighboring offices, opted to hold off on including a thunder
mention. It is possible that with enough frontal forcing, some low-
topped convection could occur however it is not clear if enough
instability will develop to result in lightning generation. The
showers rapidly end at night with some clearing occurring. There may
be a little bit of a wind surge in the wake of the cold frontal
passage with some initial cold air advection and tightened pressure
gradient.

For Wednesday and Thursday... High pressure across the southern
states Wednesday is forecast to build across our region Wednesday
night and Thursday before gradually starting to shift offshore.

Given this and the flow aloft turning more zonal, dry conditions are
anticipated. The afternoon temperatures Thursday may near 70 degrees
across portions of our southern areas as some return flow and warm
air advection starts to get underway.

For Friday through Sunday... A complex setup looks to occur as the
next upper-level trough amplifies eastward from the midwest and
plains. This feature may split with a closed low developing across
the southern states while the northern branch trough slides eastward
across the great lakes and the northeast. The northern trough will
drive a cold front across our area later Friday, however it may slow
as it clears the coast. The southern states energy looks to develop
a surface low along the tailend of the cold front and this system
may track south and east of our our region later Saturday and
Sunday. Given much more uncertainty regarding the timing and the
overall synoptic evolution, mostly blended in the 00z wpc
guidance with continuity and kept any pops no higher than the
chance range.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Lingering MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys through 13-15z, thenVFR.

North winds 10 kt or less will veer to the east, then southeast
later this afternoon.

Tonight...VFR initially, then clouds will lower and thicken with
MVFR CIGS possible towards daybreak Tuesday. Lgt vrb winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR ifr ceilings. A few light showers possible during
much of the day, them organized showers with visibility restrictions
move through later in the afternoon and evening from west to east.

The conditions improve toVFR during the night. East-northeast to
east-southeast winds near 10 knots, shifting to west and northwest
at night. Moderate to high confidence on conditions belowVFR, but
low confidence on the timing of flight category changes.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. West-northwest to west winds 10-15
knots, becoming light and variable Wednesday night then
southwesterly around 5 knots Thursday. High confidence.

Friday... A period of sub-vfr conditions possible late day or at
night with possible showers. Southwest winds around 10 knots,
becoming west to northwest at night. Low to moderate confidence.

Marine
Low pressure east of new jersey moves out to sea today. A cold front
approaches late tonight.

Wind gusts have subsided to below gale force, so will go ahead and
convert gale warning to small craft advisories. Gusty winds continue
through this morning, and then SCA conditions, mainly in elevated
seas, will then persist on the ocean waters this afternoon and into
tonight.

For delaware bay, SCA conditions have ended on the upper portion of
the bay, but will linger on the lower portion of the bay for a few
more hours early this morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday... As winds become westerly at night, wind gusts may reach 25
knots for a time late. Seas however on the atlantic coastal waters
may still be near 5 feet.

Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions possible especially in
the morning with westerly wind gusts to 25 knots.

Thursday and Friday... The conditions are anticipated to be below
small craft advisory criteria.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Tuesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for anz431.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 10 mi37 min NNE 21 G 27 56°F 62°F1013.8 hPa52°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi49 min NNE 12 G 20 54°F 58°F1014.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 28 mi49 min N 14 G 16 54°F 1014.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi55 min 54°F 60°F1015.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 30 mi49 min 55°F 62°F1015.1 hPa
44091 35 mi37 min 63°F11 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 36 mi77 min NNE 23 G 27 58°F 62°F7 ft1011.9 hPa (-1.2)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi49 min ENE 9.9 G 17 54°F 61°F1015.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 42 mi52 min N 12 G 18 54°F 32°F50°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi77 min NNE 14 G 19 55°F 2 ft49°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 49 mi55 min NNE 6 G 11 53°F 56°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5E5SE5E7SE5SE8SE10E8SE12SE10
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1 day agoW4NW5NW5W5NW4NW3W3NW4NW5NW5NW9NW833E7E6E5SE6SE4SE3SE4SE5SE3SE5
2 days agoE3N3NE3CalmCalmE3NW3NW4W3W3W5SW8SW8W8W11
G16
W8W8W6W5W5SW4SW4W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.93.83.32.41.61.10.911.62.53.54.34.64.64.23.32.31.510.70.81.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.