Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harrisburg, PA
November 28, 2023 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC)
Sunrise 7:06AM Sunset 4:44PM Moonrise 5:31PM Moonset 8:40AM
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1233 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Wednesday morning...
This afternoon..W winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Wednesday morning...
This afternoon..W winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure gradually builds toward the waters through tonight. Hazardous marine conditions expected through Tuesday evening, with small craft advisories likely needed through Wednesday morning. Another frontal system moves through the area by late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday. High pressure returns briefly Saturday before another front arrives Sunday into early next week.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure gradually builds toward the waters through tonight. Hazardous marine conditions expected through Tuesday evening, with small craft advisories likely needed through Wednesday morning. Another frontal system moves through the area by late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday. High pressure returns briefly Saturday before another front arrives Sunday into early next week.
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 281542 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1042 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
A long wave trough will move across Central PA today bringing lake effect snow showers. A quiet period of weather will follow for Wednesday and Thursday along with daytime high temperatures warming by 15 to 20 degrees between Tuesday and Thursday. The next storm system moves out of the Southern Plains states and spreads rain across much of Central and Southern PA very late Thursday night through Friday. Rain or mixed precipitation is expected across the Northern Mountains during this same periods.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/
It is pretty dry out there (mid teens dews), accumulations are occurring. Road temps have also started to climb near freezing or slightly higher as breaks in the clouds have started to warm the ground. This would increase the threat for flash freezing to occur as the bands/squalls get into the I-80/99 corridor over the next few hours. The well-sub freezing temps overnight had made that a non-concern. Broken snow band/squall dropping S across the nrn mtns has dropped 1-2" of fluffy snow in spots per reports and webcams. A Huron connection does look like it will influence the moisture/temp profile across the nrn mtns for the evening and first part of the night. While lake effect SHSN will last into the wee hours there, they should still be down to flurries well before morning. The additional SF across Potter Co has nudged their future and soon to occur SF into advy criteria, and we have expanded the lake effect/ww advy into Potter County.
Prev...
West-east bands of moderate to locally heavy snow have continued through much of Monday night across central PA, especially between I-80 and I-99. These have finally been on a diminishing trend over the past hour (through 6 AM). The snow has been very dry, owing to dewpoint depressions in excess of 10 degrees for most locations. Dewpoints have fallen into the low teens across much of the area. Dry air will continue to be a wild card factor for snow shower intensity and southeastern extent/coverage.
Nevertheless, roads do have some snow and moisture on them this morning with surface temperatures below freezing, so this does pose a threat of slippery travel for the early morning commute in locations that did pick up a coating of snow. Ice formation on roadways may be aided by a brief window of enhanced radiative cooling early this morning as clouds break up before sunrise over the central ridge/valley region.
The true lake effect snow bands have mostly been confined to New York and far western PA, only brushing the northern portions of Warren and McKean counties. A secondary cold front will help nudge these heavier bands farther south over the next few hours. The band is seen entering northern Potter and Tioga counties at 6 AM.
The mean wind in the cloud bearing layer will become more NWrly by 10 AM. Wind gusts will increase into the 25-35 mph range (up to 45 mph possible on the Laurel ridgetops). The gusty wind and the enhanced moisture and instability beneath the trough of cold air will likely result in scattered heavy snow bursts and possibly snow squalls, some of which may take the form of streamer bands aligned with the mean flow (NW to SE). The snow squall parameter is maximized around mid day today.
The dryness of the ambient air and limited moisture could hold the potency/intensity of squalls down, but we will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO and briefings. This is not a situation where the accums reach advisory numbers (3"), but the suddenness of a squall can catch people off-guard. Air temperatures near or below freezing in most locations bring the potential for a flash freeze on roadways, especially if the road surfaces warm above freezing in any breaks of sunshine.
But, the dry air is also a limiting factor for flash freeze potential, as bursts of snow in dry air contain less moisture to freeze onto the roads, and some of that moisture will evaporate instead of freezing.
SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Latest HRRR shows NW flow advecting lake moisture into at least northern and western portions of the CWA well after 00z.
Although instability will be waning at this point, lake effect streamer bands remain possible mainly across the northern tier and as far south as I-80 through about midnight. Wind chills will again drop into the teens and single digits.
By Wednesday, winds will begin to shift more southwesterly, which will result in lake effect snow tapering off across northwest Pennsylvania. Gusty winds will also diminish, though wind gusts of 15 to 25 miles per hour remain possible through Thursday. One more chilly day on Wednesday (highs generally in the 30s) will precede a moderating trend through the end of the week.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Highs Thursday through Sunday in the 40s will be near to slightly above average for this time of year. The next weather system arrives for late Thursday night into Friday as a broad area of moisture ahead of a an approaching cold front (and southern stream low heading at us from the Southern Plains States) tracks into the eastern half of the country.
Latest Operational and Ensemble model guidance indicates that moisture will be relatively inconsequential, ranging from around half an inch across the northwest to less than a tenth of an inch across much of southeast PA. Temperature profiles indicate that rain will be the dominant precipitation type, but a few wet flakes could mix in across the northeast.
The cold air mass will be shallow and rather fleeting in the wake of this system as the associated sfc high lifts NE into nrn New England late this weekend as mid/upper level heights rise around 60 meters and the flow aloft remains from the WSW to SW.
Although temps should warm aloft by 5-7 deg C Sunday into Monday morning, low-level temp profiles suggest that a relatively brief period of freezing or frozen precip is possible Sunday night/early Monday before changing to a few periods of rain/drizzle on Monday as the thicker, seeder-feeder layered cloud deck races away to the NE.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
All is rolling on, except the SHSN/SQSN that is heading for IPT may arrive a little faster than earlier planning. Have bumped the arrival time of reductions to vis to 16Z. The worst conditions there should be closer to 17Z. Did not drop them past MVFR for now, but the visby may come down to IFC for a brief time. The dry air in place will keep the cig there up aoa FL030.
Prev...
Bands of heavier SHSN moving across portions of east-central PA this morning mostly steering away of any TAF sites. Lake effect snow is impacting BFD early this morning, bringing IFR vsby/cigs that will continue into the late morning/early afternoon hours.
Some of the lower clouds could potentially scatter out ~15Z-17Z and have hinted at this in the TAF, vsby will likely (80-90%) still remain throughout this timeframe. Lake effect influence becomes much less pronounced early Wednesday AM, with improvement expected to occur late in the TAF period at BFD.
Heavier bands of SHSN will mainly impact the northern airfields bringing localized restrictions. There have been some increasing signals for increased impacts ~17-19Z at JST/UNV and ~18-20Z at IPT due to heavier snow bands/squalls mainly with vsby restrictions and some lower cloud bases. Thus, have continue TEMPO groups with moderate-to-high confidence (60-80%).
Impacts at AOO seem less likely as drier air could potentially win out, so have tagged with a VCSH group due to waning confidence on coverage/timing.
Winds will be on the increase throughout the day with some airfields already pushing westerly (260-280) gusts in excess of 20 kts. Winds of this magnitude will become more prevalent areawide in the afternoon/evening hours with airfields closest to the Alleghenies (AOO/JST/UNV) pushing westerly winds 20-25 kts with gusts of 30-35 kts possible.
Outlook...
Wed...Slight chance of light snow NW Mtns.
Thu...Slight chance of AM low cigs NW Mtns.
Fri...Low cigs/rain likely, mainly PM.
Sat...Lingering low cigs possible, mainly AM.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ005- 006.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1042 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
A long wave trough will move across Central PA today bringing lake effect snow showers. A quiet period of weather will follow for Wednesday and Thursday along with daytime high temperatures warming by 15 to 20 degrees between Tuesday and Thursday. The next storm system moves out of the Southern Plains states and spreads rain across much of Central and Southern PA very late Thursday night through Friday. Rain or mixed precipitation is expected across the Northern Mountains during this same periods.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/
It is pretty dry out there (mid teens dews), accumulations are occurring. Road temps have also started to climb near freezing or slightly higher as breaks in the clouds have started to warm the ground. This would increase the threat for flash freezing to occur as the bands/squalls get into the I-80/99 corridor over the next few hours. The well-sub freezing temps overnight had made that a non-concern. Broken snow band/squall dropping S across the nrn mtns has dropped 1-2" of fluffy snow in spots per reports and webcams. A Huron connection does look like it will influence the moisture/temp profile across the nrn mtns for the evening and first part of the night. While lake effect SHSN will last into the wee hours there, they should still be down to flurries well before morning. The additional SF across Potter Co has nudged their future and soon to occur SF into advy criteria, and we have expanded the lake effect/ww advy into Potter County.
Prev...
West-east bands of moderate to locally heavy snow have continued through much of Monday night across central PA, especially between I-80 and I-99. These have finally been on a diminishing trend over the past hour (through 6 AM). The snow has been very dry, owing to dewpoint depressions in excess of 10 degrees for most locations. Dewpoints have fallen into the low teens across much of the area. Dry air will continue to be a wild card factor for snow shower intensity and southeastern extent/coverage.
Nevertheless, roads do have some snow and moisture on them this morning with surface temperatures below freezing, so this does pose a threat of slippery travel for the early morning commute in locations that did pick up a coating of snow. Ice formation on roadways may be aided by a brief window of enhanced radiative cooling early this morning as clouds break up before sunrise over the central ridge/valley region.
The true lake effect snow bands have mostly been confined to New York and far western PA, only brushing the northern portions of Warren and McKean counties. A secondary cold front will help nudge these heavier bands farther south over the next few hours. The band is seen entering northern Potter and Tioga counties at 6 AM.
The mean wind in the cloud bearing layer will become more NWrly by 10 AM. Wind gusts will increase into the 25-35 mph range (up to 45 mph possible on the Laurel ridgetops). The gusty wind and the enhanced moisture and instability beneath the trough of cold air will likely result in scattered heavy snow bursts and possibly snow squalls, some of which may take the form of streamer bands aligned with the mean flow (NW to SE). The snow squall parameter is maximized around mid day today.
The dryness of the ambient air and limited moisture could hold the potency/intensity of squalls down, but we will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO and briefings. This is not a situation where the accums reach advisory numbers (3"), but the suddenness of a squall can catch people off-guard. Air temperatures near or below freezing in most locations bring the potential for a flash freeze on roadways, especially if the road surfaces warm above freezing in any breaks of sunshine.
But, the dry air is also a limiting factor for flash freeze potential, as bursts of snow in dry air contain less moisture to freeze onto the roads, and some of that moisture will evaporate instead of freezing.
SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Latest HRRR shows NW flow advecting lake moisture into at least northern and western portions of the CWA well after 00z.
Although instability will be waning at this point, lake effect streamer bands remain possible mainly across the northern tier and as far south as I-80 through about midnight. Wind chills will again drop into the teens and single digits.
By Wednesday, winds will begin to shift more southwesterly, which will result in lake effect snow tapering off across northwest Pennsylvania. Gusty winds will also diminish, though wind gusts of 15 to 25 miles per hour remain possible through Thursday. One more chilly day on Wednesday (highs generally in the 30s) will precede a moderating trend through the end of the week.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Highs Thursday through Sunday in the 40s will be near to slightly above average for this time of year. The next weather system arrives for late Thursday night into Friday as a broad area of moisture ahead of a an approaching cold front (and southern stream low heading at us from the Southern Plains States) tracks into the eastern half of the country.
Latest Operational and Ensemble model guidance indicates that moisture will be relatively inconsequential, ranging from around half an inch across the northwest to less than a tenth of an inch across much of southeast PA. Temperature profiles indicate that rain will be the dominant precipitation type, but a few wet flakes could mix in across the northeast.
The cold air mass will be shallow and rather fleeting in the wake of this system as the associated sfc high lifts NE into nrn New England late this weekend as mid/upper level heights rise around 60 meters and the flow aloft remains from the WSW to SW.
Although temps should warm aloft by 5-7 deg C Sunday into Monday morning, low-level temp profiles suggest that a relatively brief period of freezing or frozen precip is possible Sunday night/early Monday before changing to a few periods of rain/drizzle on Monday as the thicker, seeder-feeder layered cloud deck races away to the NE.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
All is rolling on, except the SHSN/SQSN that is heading for IPT may arrive a little faster than earlier planning. Have bumped the arrival time of reductions to vis to 16Z. The worst conditions there should be closer to 17Z. Did not drop them past MVFR for now, but the visby may come down to IFC for a brief time. The dry air in place will keep the cig there up aoa FL030.
Prev...
Bands of heavier SHSN moving across portions of east-central PA this morning mostly steering away of any TAF sites. Lake effect snow is impacting BFD early this morning, bringing IFR vsby/cigs that will continue into the late morning/early afternoon hours.
Some of the lower clouds could potentially scatter out ~15Z-17Z and have hinted at this in the TAF, vsby will likely (80-90%) still remain throughout this timeframe. Lake effect influence becomes much less pronounced early Wednesday AM, with improvement expected to occur late in the TAF period at BFD.
Heavier bands of SHSN will mainly impact the northern airfields bringing localized restrictions. There have been some increasing signals for increased impacts ~17-19Z at JST/UNV and ~18-20Z at IPT due to heavier snow bands/squalls mainly with vsby restrictions and some lower cloud bases. Thus, have continue TEMPO groups with moderate-to-high confidence (60-80%).
Impacts at AOO seem less likely as drier air could potentially win out, so have tagged with a VCSH group due to waning confidence on coverage/timing.
Winds will be on the increase throughout the day with some airfields already pushing westerly (260-280) gusts in excess of 20 kts. Winds of this magnitude will become more prevalent areawide in the afternoon/evening hours with airfields closest to the Alleghenies (AOO/JST/UNV) pushing westerly winds 20-25 kts with gusts of 30-35 kts possible.
Outlook...
Wed...Slight chance of light snow NW Mtns.
Thu...Slight chance of AM low cigs NW Mtns.
Fri...Low cigs/rain likely, mainly PM.
Sat...Lingering low cigs possible, mainly AM.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ005- 006.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCXY CAPITAL CITY,PA | 5 sm | 45 min | WNW 19G26 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 34°F | 12°F | 40% | 30.00 | |
| KMDT HARRISBURG INTL,PA | 9 sm | 45 min | NW 18G29 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 34°F | 14°F | 44% | 29.98 | |
| KMUI MUIR AAF (FORT INDIANTOWN GAP),PA | 20 sm | 11 min | no data | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Unknown | 34°F | 12°F | 40% | 29.95 |
Wind History from CXY
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 10:36 AM EST 1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 11:36 PM EST 3.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 10:36 AM EST 1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 11:36 PM EST 3.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.1 |
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:01 AM EST -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 10:20 AM EST 1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:09 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:30 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 10:08 PM EST 2.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:01 AM EST -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 10:20 AM EST 1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:09 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:30 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 10:08 PM EST 2.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0.1 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.5 |
State College, PA,
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