Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sunbury, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:07PM Friday December 6, 2019 1:03 AM EST (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:23PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:201912060315;;912428 Fzus51 Kcle 060002 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 702 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>145-060315- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 702 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 43 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunbury, OH
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location: 40.3, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 060553 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1253 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to provide a mostly clear and dry evening. A weak low pressure system will bring a chance for some light rain on Friday, especially for areas along and south of the Ohio River. A drier airmass will build back into the region for the weekend. Another system moves in late Sunday night into Monday, bringing the next chance for precipitation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. A few thick patches of mid-level clouds are moving into the area this evening. One is skimming across northern IN/OH and will probably end up clearing out of the area later in the overnight hours. A much larger expanse of clouds has developed upstream in advance of a well-defined wave moving across the Mississippi Valley, with the mid and high clouds spilling eastward on westerly flow aloft.

Forecast adjustments this evening included some timing/trend changes with regards to temperatures, which appear to be cooling off a little quicker than anticipated this evening. This trend will be short-lived, though, as there is solid model agreement that min temps should come in at around 06Z, before gradual warming begins as clouds thicken up over the area. Ultimately, min temps were lowered slightly, especially in the eastern ILN CWA, with these min temps expected to hit in the midnight-3AM time frame.

A few adjustments were also made to the precipitation moving in tomorrow morning, as recent model runs have continued to increase confidence in the timing and coverage of the rain. This resulted in a net PoP increase of about 10-20 percent for affected areas, though the northwestern ILN CWA still appears likely to remain dry.

Previous discussion > Visible satellite imagery this afternoon reveals much of the area has and will continue to see abundant sunshine until sunset thanks to dry air and a weak low-mid level ridge situated over the region. Some upper level clouds are beginning to work in across the northern fringes of the forecast area as a disturbance aloft moves into the Great Lakes. Mid-upper level clouds are also expected to eventually spread eastward as a secondary shortwave trough moves into the Ohio Valley later tonight. Otherwise, temperatures gradually fall back into the 30s by sunrise tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. There should be limited sunshine to start the day on Friday as an approaching shortwave moves into lower Ohio Valley spreading mid and upper level clouds eastward across the area. Additionally, a cold front is expected to be moving in from the northwest throughout the morning hours. Low level moisture increases with the front, however, the strongest forcing and moisture is displaced to the south. This focuses the best rain chances for southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Rain arrives during the morning hours for the Cincinnati metro before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and clearing by the late afternoon. Remnant showers may linger into the early evening hours for southeast portions of the forecast area as the shortwave shifts eastward. Overall accumulations should be fairly light with most locations seeing less than a tenth of an inch.

High pressure begins to build to the northwest by Friday night, ushering in drier air and cooler temperatures. By sunrise, temperatures in the mid 20s are forecast with low 20s possible in a few spots.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The extended period starts off benign as high pressure will cover the Ohio Valley. Skies should be mostly sunny due to the high pressure with high temperatures near normal, as they range from the lower 40s in the far north to the mid 40s in the south.

With near zonal flow over the region, the surface high is forecast to quickly work to the east coast by 12Z Sunday. The 12Z NAM is the quickest of the models in bringing the return flow of moisture back into the region, as it has light pcpn across the much of the forecast area by 12Z. The rest of the extended models keep Sunday night dry. Will lean towards this drier solution.

On Sunday the broad low level southwest flow continues. in broad isentropic lift, the NAM continues to produce the light rain showers across the area. The operational GFS and ECMWF meanwhile keep the region dry. the latest NBM has some 20 PoPs on Sunday. Due to the uncertainty, won't remove them this cycle.

On Sunday night into Monday an approaching cold front increases the lift and rain will become more widespread. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s as the region is on the warm side of the front.

This far out there are differences in the strength and location of the surface low that is driving the cold front. This affects the exact timing of the frontal passage. General consensus is that fropa will be late Monday night. With a strong arctic airmass behind the front, it is looking like temperatures will fall on Tuesday. A change over from rain to snow will accompany the change in airmass.

Cold air advection will linger Tuesday night, which will keep some light snow showers in the region.

Well below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as the arctic high builds into the region. Morning lows will be in the teens to lower 20s Wednesday morning, and highs will only recover into the mid 20s to lower 30s in the afternoon.

By Thursday the center of the high will be off to the east and the airmass will be moderating. Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Clear skies are in place across the area early this morning but mid level clouds are quickly pushing in from the west. This is ahead of a weak wave of low pressure that will pass off to our south through this afternoon. As the low levels moisten up toward daybreak, cigs will drop into MVFR category through mid morning with showers developing across mainly southern portions of our area. This could lead to some MVFR vsby restrictions at mainly KCVG/KLUK and possibly KILN later this morning into early afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest through mid to late afternoon, leading to a decreasing chance of showers and improving sky conditions. VFR conditions are expected tonight.

OUTLOOK . MVFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty winds are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . McGinnis NEAR TERM . Hatzos/McGinnis SHORT TERM . McGinnis LONG TERM . Sites AVIATION . JGL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 77 mi78 min SSW 1.9 39°F 1016 hPa27°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 78 mi63 min SW 8 G 13 40°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 86 mi51 min S 6 G 8.9 38°F 38°F1015.6 hPa28°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH17 mi70 minSSE 610.00 miFair36°F25°F64%1018.6 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH20 mi72 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds37°F24°F59%1018.8 hPa
Marion, Marion Municipal Airport, OH24 mi70 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds37°F27°F67%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSU

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW19NW11W9W7W7W5W5W7W8W11W8W11W7W11SW6SW6S4S3S4SE4S5S5S6S5
1 day agoSW8SW7SW7SW8SW10SW9SW6SW14
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2 days agoNW6NW6N5NW5W4W3SW13W10W10SW9W9SW12SW10S13SW12SW13SW8SW7S11S11SW7S8SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.