Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunbury, OH

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KILN 080242 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 942 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure will track southeast of the region tonight. Winds will then become southerly and mark a warming trend for the week, culminating in breezy conditions with increased clouds that spread across the area Wed and Thurs. This is in advance of a frontal system that will pass through and bring a good shot of rain late Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Band of cirrus extending across the forecast area will move off to the east later tonight. These clouds should be thin for the most part. High pressure will remain in the southeast part of the area. This will lead to the coldest overnight temperatures while in western counties a light southerly wind will keep readings just a bit higher.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Generally sunny skies will be found again, as high temperatures rise to the 60-65 degree range, warmest in the northwest where slightly stronger winds will bring in warmer air.

Winds will lighten overnight, but remain southerly and help keep temperatures from dropping below freezing for the first time this month. Lows will range from the lower 40s in the northwest to the mid and upper 30s in the southeast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The long term period will feature somewhat of a dichotomy of a forecast across the region, with the first several days featuring tranquil weather, warm temperatures and not much (if any) in the way of pcpn while the end of the workweek into this weekend will be much more unsettled and cooler.

Broad surface high pressure centered to the southeast of the Ohio Valley will position the region in broad southwesterly flow at the surface, and to a lesser extent, aloft as well. A quick-moving mid/upper level S/W will bring some cloud cover to the area on Tuesday, but no rain is expected. However, it may end up being more partly sunny than mostly sunny as this disturbance moves east through the region during the daytime period. And despite the increased cloud cover Tuesday, still expect highs to reach into the 60s just about everywhere. Recent NBM guidance has been going much too cool on daytime highs, likely influenced at least somewhat by the cooler-than-normal conditions over the past 60-day BC training period. Either way, decided to trend more toward the 75th percentile NBM maxT for both Tuesday and Wednesday, despite the anticipation for some cloud cover on both days.

The warmer temps on Wednesday will be aided at least somewhat by the fact that a slightly tighter pressure gradient will be positioned in the Ohio Valley by midweek, with indications for favorable diurnal mixing Wednesday and even again on Thursday. This will be in spite of some moisture advection NE into the region, courtesy of the stiffer southwesterly LL flow that will become established. Will see SW winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH Wednesday with highs generally in the mid/upper 60s. If the pcpn can hold off through the daytime on Thursday, the tightened pressure gradient and favorable mixing in the open pre-frontal warm sector would suggest gusts to 35- 40 MPH are possible Thursday late morning/afternoon/early evening. Will begin to highlight this wind potential in the HWO.

By Thursday, with expansive mid/upper level ridging centered over the Gulf and a digging mid/upper level low west of the Four Corners region, broad southwesterly flow aloft will become established near/east of the mid-Mississippi River Valley, with the general trof axis stretching from the upper Midwest to California. At the surface, an area of low pressure will race from the upper midwest to north of the Great Lakes, leaving in its wake a trailing cold front which will slowly progress southeast through the region Thursday into Thursday night. High confidence remains in widespread rain impacting the ILN FA Thursday night into Friday morning. Past this juncture, the solutions begin to diverge and the uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern increases rather substantially as we progress into next weekend.

The divergence in longer-range model solutions stems from , in part, the difference in the handling of how fast to eject the mid/upper level low over the Four Corners region east into the plains and eventually MS/OH Rvr Valleys. The ECWMF and CMC continue to show solutions suggesting the mid/upper level low cutting off from the main flow, allowing it to meander about the Four Corners region through the weekend. Meanwhile, the GFS brings this feature east much quicker, which would enable the attendant lee-side low to develop faster and would stunt the southward progression of the front through the OH/TN Valleys to a much greater extent. The faster ejection of the mid/upper level low into the central plains would certainly spell a wetter scenario for the Ohio Valley as it would not allow the front to clear the OH Vly for the entire stretch of Thursday night through Sunday night. Meanwhile, the CMC and ECMWF continue to show the ILN FA getting in the post-frontal environment Saturday/Sunday (due to the digging nature of the S/W energy into the interior NE US Saturday) before ultimately rain chances increase again on Monday with the delayed arrival of the "Four Corners" system.

With all of this being said, it does seem like there is a subtle trend by the CMC/ECMWF to show a solution slightly more in-line with what the GFS has been showing, which also would indicate a shorter "dry" stretch between the sagging front on Thursday/Friday/Friday night and the system due to arrive Sunday/Sunday night/Monday. Still quite a bit to be ironed out with the evolution of the pattern late week. However, confidence remains high in widespread rain Thursday night into Friday, potentially lingering Friday night closer to the Ohio River as a weak surface impulse translates along the stalling/increasingly zonal-oriented baroclinic zone. Cooler temps will evolve Friday into Saturday with ample clouds, some precipitation, and the potential to be in a post-frontal environment.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions will continue through the period. A band of cirrus will pass across the region early in the period. Expect a 5-8kft deck to pass across the terminals after 12Z. This could even evolve into a ceiling for a period of time. Light and variable winds through the first half of the period will come out of the south on Monday. They will strengthen to 10 to 15 kt and veer to the southwest by later in the period. OUTLOOK . Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible on Wednesday and again on Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . Franks NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . Franks LONG TERM . KC AVIATION .

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	78 mi	48 min	S 5.1 G 7	28°F			1028.8 hPa (+0.0)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	86 mi	48 min	SSE 4.1 G 8	29°F	34°F		1029.3 hPa (+0.0)	15°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

Last 24hr

E3 G6

SE2

E1

SE1

N11

NW12

NW10

NW11

NW8 G11

N10 G13

NE15

NE10

NE5

NE8

NE6

NE4

NE3

NW3

E7

E3 G6

SE3 G6

SE4 G7

SE4 G7

S4 G8

1 day ago

NW19

NW15

NW15 G20

NW17

NW16

NW16

NW18

NW17

NW15 G19

NW15

NW15

NW12 G16

NW14

NW12

W9 G12

W10

NW6

NE4

N2

N2

S3

NW1 G5

E3 G15

SE3

2 days ago

NW10

NW11

NW12

NW11

NW11 G14

N7 G10

NW15

NW12

NW13

NW14 G17

NW14

NW12 G16

W12 G17

W12

W11 G14

W13 G16

W7 G10

W8

W9 G16

W8

W4 G8

W8

W10

NW19

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH	17 mi	55 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	28°F	15°F	58%	1031.7 hPa
Knox County Airfield, OH	19 mi	53 min	NNE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	30°F	18°F	59%	1030.5 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH	20 mi	57 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	32°F	16°F	52%	1031.6 hPa
Marion, Marion Municipal Airport, OH	24 mi	55 min	S 3	10.00 mi	Fair	27°F	18°F	69%	1031.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSU

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

Last 24hr

W5

W6

NW6

NW6

W7

NW8

NW8

NW10

NW9

N10

N8

N9

NW6

W4

W9

N7

NW7

NW6

NW8

N9

N5

Calm

Calm

Calm

1 day ago

W8

NW10

NW9

NW7

NW7

NW8

NW8

NW7

NW7

NW6

N10

N9

N12

N14

NW9 G16

NW8 G18

W10

NW10

NW12 G16

NW9

NW5

W5

W3

W4

2 days ago

N6

N5

N5

NW4

NW5

W5

W5

NW6

W5

W5

NW8

NW6

NW8

N9

NW14 G18

N13 G18

N12 G19

NW9 G16

NW10

NW10

W5

W6

W5

W4

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station

---

Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.

---