Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunbury, OH

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 060553 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1253 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to provide a mostly clear and dry evening. A weak low pressure system will bring a chance for some light rain on Friday, especially for areas along and south of the Ohio River. A drier airmass will build back into the region for the weekend. Another system moves in late Sunday night into Monday, bringing the next chance for precipitation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. A few thick patches of mid-level clouds are moving into the area this evening. One is skimming across northern IN/OH and will probably end up clearing out of the area later in the overnight hours. A much larger expanse of clouds has developed upstream in advance of a well-defined wave moving across the Mississippi Valley, with the mid and high clouds spilling eastward on westerly flow aloft.

Forecast adjustments this evening included some timing/trend changes with regards to temperatures, which appear to be cooling off a little quicker than anticipated this evening. This trend will be short-lived, though, as there is solid model agreement that min temps should come in at around 06Z, before gradual warming begins as clouds thicken up over the area. Ultimately, min temps were lowered slightly, especially in the eastern ILN CWA, with these min temps expected to hit in the midnight-3AM time frame.

A few adjustments were also made to the precipitation moving in tomorrow morning, as recent model runs have continued to increase confidence in the timing and coverage of the rain. This resulted in a net PoP increase of about 10-20 percent for affected areas, though the northwestern ILN CWA still appears likely to remain dry.

Previous discussion > Visible satellite imagery this afternoon reveals much of the area has and will continue to see abundant sunshine until sunset thanks to dry air and a weak low-mid level ridge situated over the region. Some upper level clouds are beginning to work in across the northern fringes of the forecast area as a disturbance aloft moves into the Great Lakes. Mid-upper level clouds are also expected to eventually spread eastward as a secondary shortwave trough moves into the Ohio Valley later tonight. Otherwise, temperatures gradually fall back into the 30s by sunrise tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. There should be limited sunshine to start the day on Friday as an approaching shortwave moves into lower Ohio Valley spreading mid and upper level clouds eastward across the area. Additionally, a cold front is expected to be moving in from the northwest throughout the morning hours. Low level moisture increases with the front, however, the strongest forcing and moisture is displaced to the south. This focuses the best rain chances for southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Rain arrives during the morning hours for the Cincinnati metro before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and clearing by the late afternoon. Remnant showers may linger into the early evening hours for southeast portions of the forecast area as the shortwave shifts eastward. Overall accumulations should be fairly light with most locations seeing less than a tenth of an inch.

High pressure begins to build to the northwest by Friday night, ushering in drier air and cooler temperatures. By sunrise, temperatures in the mid 20s are forecast with low 20s possible in a few spots.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The extended period starts off benign as high pressure will cover the Ohio Valley. Skies should be mostly sunny due to the high pressure with high temperatures near normal, as they range from the lower 40s in the far north to the mid 40s in the south.

With near zonal flow over the region, the surface high is forecast to quickly work to the east coast by 12Z Sunday. The 12Z NAM is the quickest of the models in bringing the return flow of moisture back into the region, as it has light pcpn across the much of the forecast area by 12Z. The rest of the extended models keep Sunday night dry. Will lean towards this drier solution.

On Sunday the broad low level southwest flow continues. in broad isentropic lift, the NAM continues to produce the light rain showers across the area. The operational GFS and ECMWF meanwhile keep the region dry. the latest NBM has some 20 PoPs on Sunday. Due to the uncertainty, won't remove them this cycle.

On Sunday night into Monday an approaching cold front increases the lift and rain will become more widespread. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s as the region is on the warm side of the front.

This far out there are differences in the strength and location of the surface low that is driving the cold front. This affects the exact timing of the frontal passage. General consensus is that fropa will be late Monday night. With a strong arctic airmass behind the front, it is looking like temperatures will fall on Tuesday. A change over from rain to snow will accompany the change in airmass.

Cold air advection will linger Tuesday night, which will keep some light snow showers in the region.

Well below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as the arctic high builds into the region. Morning lows will be in the teens to lower 20s Wednesday morning, and highs will only recover into the mid 20s to lower 30s in the afternoon.

By Thursday the center of the high will be off to the east and the airmass will be moderating. Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Clear skies are in place across the area early this morning but mid level clouds are quickly pushing in from the west. This is ahead of a weak wave of low pressure that will pass off to our south through this afternoon. As the low levels moisten up toward daybreak, cigs will drop into MVFR category through mid morning with showers developing across mainly southern portions of our area. This could lead to some MVFR vsby restrictions at mainly KCVG/KLUK and possibly KILN later this morning into early afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest through mid to late afternoon, leading to a decreasing chance of showers and improving sky conditions. VFR conditions are expected tonight.

OUTLOOK . MVFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty winds are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . McGinnis NEAR TERM . Hatzos/McGinnis SHORT TERM . McGinnis LONG TERM . Sites AVIATION . JGL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	77 mi	78 min	SSW 1.9	39°F			1016 hPa	27°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	78 mi	63 min	SW 8 G 13	40°F			1014.6 hPa (-1.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	86 mi	51 min	S 6 G 8.9	38°F	38°F		1015.6 hPa	28°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH	17 mi	70 min	SSE 6	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	25°F	64%	1018.6 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH	20 mi	72 min	SE 4	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	37°F	24°F	59%	1018.8 hPa
Marion, Marion Municipal Airport, OH	24 mi	70 min	S 8	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	37°F	27°F	67%	1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSU

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH

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