Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 11:26 AM   Moonset 1:42 AM

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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night - .
Overnight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of showers late this evening and early morning, then showers likely late. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Wed night - E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: se 7 ft at 9 seconds and E 7 ft at 9 seconds. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Wave detail: E 7 ft at 8 seconds and se 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: E 7 ft at 8 seconds.Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds. Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ400 1002 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Syn0psis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay -

FXUS61 KPHI 142328 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 728 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Several waves of low pressure will slowly work their way through the region through Friday. Weak high pressure builds through the region on Friday, and then several more waves of low pressure will pass through the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and into the start of the new week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall, the near term forecast remains largely on track so few changes have been made. Scattered showers are now moving into the region as a weak, slow moving low pushes towards the region.
Showers will become more numerous through the evening and overnight hours and some minimal instability may result in a few rumbles of thunder (most likely this evening across the western half of the area). The low is expected to push offshore early in the day on Wednesday but begin to strengthen slightly. This action will result in scattered to numerous showers continuing through the day on Wednesday. Despite showers continuing off and on through the near term, accumulations will be relatively light (less than 0.5 inches through daytime Wednesday)

Temperatures will be cooling as winds become more southeasterly tonight then east-northeasterly on Wednesday. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s and highs on Wednesday in the mid 60s expected.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low pressure will meander off the New Jersey and Delaware coasts Wednesday night into Thursday, then will drift out to sea and meander over the western Atlantic Ocean through Friday.
Weak surface high pressure then builds into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for Friday.

Periods of rain will continue over the area Wednesday evening, and then rain will be more focused closer to the New Jersey coast towards daybreak Thursday. The heaviest rain should be mostly done Wednesday evening, and additional rainfall Wednesday night will generally average around 1/10 inch.

Thursday will feature bands of rain rotating back toward the coast, as the surface low will be some 250-300 miles southeast of Atlantic City. However, additional rainfall will be light.
With an easterly, onshore flow, conditions remain cloudy and damp throughout most of the day for most of the area. Some breaks in the clouds and warmer weather is possible for the far western zones.

Low pressure slides east on Friday, and surface high pressure builds over the area. Some breaks in the clouds will lead to warmer temperatures.

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid and upper 60s, possible in the low 70s out towards Berks county and the western portions of the Lehigh Valley. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure along the coast lifts towards the Northeast Friday night as another broad area of low pressure develops over the Midwest. The low slowly tracks east this weekend, and will be somewhere over the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before departing on Monday. There are some timing and placement differences among the models, so will generally side with the NBM for the forecast this weekend. This results in chance PoPs Saturday through Sunday, with conditions drying out on Monday.

If the 12Z/14 GFS pans out, Saturday could be showery whereas Sunday would be a washout as a secondary low forms near New Jersey out ahead of the primary low, and widespread rain would develop. If the 12Z/14 ECMWF pans out, the primary low dives south of the Mid- Atlantic, and conditions would be dryer. Its is a bit too soon to tell, but it does look to be at least unsettled this weekend.

Although the start of the new week should be mostly dry, some upper level disturbances could result in at least scattered showers.

Highs will generally be in the 60s this weekend before warming into the 70s early in the new week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...MVFR conditions developing with most terminals becoming MVFR by 02-04Z; likely with some IFR mixed in after 09Z. Light SE winds. Showers becoming more numerous. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Mix of IFR and low-end MVFR conditions with scattered to numerous showers (50-70% chance for showers). Winds becoming ENE around 10 kts. LLWS concerns arise late morning and through the afternoon near the NJ coast where the low center will track. Low confidence on extent and duration of IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions in RA continue Wednesday night, and then some improvements are possible Thursday. Conditions on Friday should be dry with VFR conditions. Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA possible this weekend.

MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight. SSE winds around 10 kts with seas of 2-3 feet. SCA conditions develop from south to north on Wednesday as seas build to 5-7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the ocean waters offshore Fenwick Island to Great Egg Inlet beginning at 10 AM, beginning at 1 PM for the ocean waters offshore Great Egg Inlet to Manasquan Inlet and 6 PM for ocean waters offshore Manasquan Inlet to Sandy Hook. Winds may gust around 20-25 knots briefly during the day on Wednesday.

Conditions remain sub-SCA on the Delaware Bay on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters Wednesday night. Will go ahead and add ANZ450 to the SCA, and extend it through Wednesday night. SCA conditions are then expected through Thursday, and possibly into Friday as well. Conditions should be sub-SCA criteria this weekend, although seas may build close to 5 feet on the ocean.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ451-452.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ453>455.

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Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey, Tide feet

The Narrows
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Tue -- 12:17 AM EDT     1.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:05 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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