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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 633 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms this evening. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 633 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will impact the waters through Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday through Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

FXUS61 KPHI 102106 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 406 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure and a strong cold front cross the area tonight and then move towards New England Monday. High pressure builds in behind the low for the start of the week. A weak cold front drops though the area early Wednesday. More high pressure returns for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Summary and changes: A strong synoptic system will continue to impact the region through Monday. The main change with this forecast update was to adjust for lower winds through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Winds are still expected to increase as the cold front approaches as well as behind the front.

A potent cold front undergoing significant frontogenesis will cross through the region this evening. This will bring a number of weather impacts to the region for the remainder of today into Monday, including strong winds, heavy rain, and freshwater and tidal flooding concerns. Following frontal passage, high pressure behind the front will build in Monday as precipitation tapers off, but WNW winds will remain gusty through the afternoon.

While a break in the rain has occurred across much of the area early this afternoon, areas of moderate to heavy rain are expected to move back in across the region this evening. Some elevated instability, in the 250-500 J/kg range, has already resulted in some embedded convection and is expected to continue to do so by this evening.
This should result in some heavier bursts of rain with rainfall rates briefly around 1-2" per hour. The convection may also help mix down some stronger winds within the low level jet just above the surface, perhaps locally near 40-50 mph. This activity should be confined mainly to areas near and southeast of I-95. The latest hi- res guidance continues to support the greatest rainfall amounts near the coast, though this could end up being anywhere within the coastal plain. While winds have been a bit slow to increase so far, likely due to a stable rain cooled boundary layer and a weaker pressure gradient, they are still expected to increase this evening as the cold front approaches. The strongest winds this evening will occur near the coast. Sustained winds near 20-30 mph are forecast with gusts of 40-50 mph along the immediate coastline in New Jersey, where a Wind Advisory is in effect through 1 AM tonight.

The cold front is expected to pass through the region late this evening and should be moving offshore by around midnight or so. At this point, the amplified upper level trough is shifting more neutrally tilted and slightly negatively tilted, which suggests better baroclinic forcing for greater frontogenesis at this time.
Additionally, latest guidance suggests a secondary coastal low developing along the front as the trough digs. As a result, we can expect precip along and behind the frontal boundary to further intensify. We should see a broad area of moderate to heavy stratiform rain develop along near and behind the front as a result.
This will continue to bring additional widespread rainfall overnight after the more convectively enhanced activity from the daytime and evening hours.

Generally speaking, we are still forecasting a storm total of widespread 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts near 4 inches possible. With this said, much of where the heaviest rainfall will occur depends heavily on the timing of the frontal boundary.
With a slower frontal passage, higher rainfall amounts could stretch west of the I-95 corridor. A quicker frontal passage means west of the I-95 could see less rainfall totals with the greatest chance for the heaviest rainfall remaining east of the I-95 corridor.
Regardless, the entire region remains under a Flood Watch for both urban and small stream flooding.

Expect a sharp drop in temperatures into the 40s this evening behind the cold front with temperatures in the 30s by daybreak Monday.
Northwest winds will become quite breezy overnight with gusts remaining near 25-35 mph as the surface low strengthens rapidly offshore.

Last, but not least, is the expected rain to snow transition on the back side of the departing system Monday morning for areas near and especially northwest of I-95. Guidance has come to a rather good consensus that some precipitation will linger across the area around daybreak to perhaps a few hours after daybreak as colder WNW flow takes over the region. Areas northwest of the I-95 urban corridor (primarily Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northwest NJ) are expected to see a transition to a period of snow before the precipitation exits the area. This transition may occur as far south as the urban corridor Monday morning. Accumulating snow is forecast primarily for higher elevations near and above 1,000 feet in eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey. Across the Pocono Plateau, temperatures will drop low enough to support snow accumulations of 2-3 inches with potential for amounts near 5 inches possible above 1,800 feet.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from midnight through noon Monday. The snowfall will likely impact the Monday morning commute in these areas.

Farther southeast and at lower elevations, temperatures will likely be too warm to support snowfall accumulation even where a transition to snow does occur. A dusting is possible into the I-78 corridor, Berks County, and western Chester County, however significant travel impacts are currently unlikely aside from a few slippery spots on the roads.

Aside from the snow potential, Monday will be a cold and blustery day with temperatures struggling to climb into the 40s. Winds will peak by late morning and early afternoon near 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph possible throughout the day. Some clearing may occur immediately following the end of the precipitation in the morning, however stratocumulus will likely develop in its wake during the afternoon. Some light snow showers may linger in the southern Poconos.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Once the system from the near term clears the area on Monday, rather tranquil weather is expected for Mon night into early Wednesday. The deep surface low near New Brunswick Monday evening will pull further NE while expanding high pressure to our southwest builds in. The will bring a period of dry weather with decreasing winds Mon night. Fair weather continue through Tue night.

Temperatures will be below normal into early Wednesday with lows Mon night in the 20s and a few degrees milder Tue night when some areas will have lows in the low 30s. Highs will favor the ow/mid 40s for Tue with readings remaining in the 30s for north NJ and the higher elevations of the Poconos.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
There is not much excitement for the weather in the long term as we head into mid-December. A Northeast US upper trough remains put Wed/Thu before flattening and moving away for the Fri/Sat. A surface ridge remains across the area much of the time. A dry cold front drops across the region Wed. reinforcing the cool airmass already in place.

These factors point to a dry forecast with zero, or close to it, for Wed thru Sat. Temperatures will be near normal or perhaps a few degrees below for Wed/Thu (following the front) then temps will go above normal for Fri/Sat. We'll have high temps in the low 50s next Sat for Delmarva and south NJ while north NJ and the Poconos will have highs in the mid/upper 40s.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through Tonight...After a lull in the rain for much of the area this afternoon, steadier rain will fill back in. Rain rates may be occasionally heavy this evening mainly near and SE of I-95 as a cold front passes through. VSBY will be mainly 4-8 SM initially, then lower to 1-3 SM toward 23-02Z, and persist overnight. CIGs mainly IFR with occasional LIFR, tending more toward the latter overnight.

Southerly winds initially 5-10 kt, locally much stronger at ACY and the immediate coast, will shift around quickly to the NW 10-20G25kt 23-02Z as a cold front passes through. Strong winds aloft and LLWS threat will after wind shift to NW. Moderate confidence.

Monday...IFR conditions early, 12-15Z possible both CIG and VSBY.
Some wet snow mixing in as far southeast as I-95 sites as the light rain ends; perhaps a brief period of -SN at ABE, but little to no accumulation. Quickly improving to VFR after 15Z all sites from SW to NE. Winds NW 15-25 KT with some gusts 30-35 kt possible mainly prior to 18Z, then gradually easing through the evening. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Mon night... VFR. Decreasing winds during the evening.

Tue thru Friday... VFR expected. Gusty winds possible Wed.

MARINE
Southerly winds will increase to gale force late this evening across the Atlantic waters and across the Delaware Bay. Southerly winds will peak late this evening near 20-30 kts with gusts of 30-40 kts. The winds will shift abruptly to the northwest as a cold front passes offshore around midnight. Winds will then increase to gale force again by Monday morning, when gusts up to 45 kts are possible across the Atlantic waters. Winds then diminish Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Widespread moderate to heavy rain and perhaps some thunder will move through, especially this evening with visibility 1-3 NM. The rain will end by Monday morning.

Outlook...
Mon night...Gale flags from Mon will likely be replaced with SCA flags until seas settle. Fair weather.

Tue/Tue night/Wed... sub-SCA. Fair.

Wed night/Thu ... SCA winds/seas possible. Fair.

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch continues for the forecast area through Monday afternoon, though the rain will be heaviest this evening, then taper off Monday morning. Low pressure and a potent cold front is still expected to bring total amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain to the region. As of early Sunday evening, already 1 to 1.5 inches has already fallen across portions of southern DE and NJ, so it is very possible those areas may approach the 3" mark before the rain tapers off early Monday morning. Excessive runoff may result in some flooding of creeks, streams, and other low- lying and flood- prone locations. Most mainstem rivers are currently not forecast to go into flood, however minor flooding is forecast at Pine Brook on the Passaic River and Blackwells Mills on the Millstone River. If higher rainfall rates occur, some of the fast responding creeks may go into flood especially in southeastern Pennsylvania.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent and increasing southerly winds will allow for a buildup of water in Barnegat Bay tonight before a cold front passes through on Monday morning. Winds then shift to a west-northwest flow at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. This will push that excess water into the back bays of Barnegat Bay along coastal Ocean County.
Minor inundation on the most vulnerable roads is likely, and cannot rule out spotty moderate coastal flooding, especially near Mantoloking.
Spotty minor flooding also cannot be ruled out for other back bay coastal communities in NJ and DE.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for PAZ054-055-060>062- 070-071-101>106.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Monday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NJZ014-024>026.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for NJZ020-026.
DE...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ450>455.

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Edgemoor
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Sun -- 04:21 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM EST     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:08 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:22 PM EST     4.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Edgemoor, Delaware, Tide feet

Millside
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:29 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST     5.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:16 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:38 PM EST     4.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware , Tide feet

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