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Marine Weather and Tides Fair Haven, NJ Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:18AM

Sunset 5:55PM

Sunday March 7, 2021 3:41 PM EST (20:41 UTC)

Moonrise 3:43AM

Moonset 12:55PM

Illumination 33%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven , NJ

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 071755 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1255 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Another trough will cross the region on Sunday into Monday before upper level low pressure in the Canadian maritimes finally moves off into the North Atlantic. High pressure and dry weather will then dominate through the middle of next week, with a warming trend. A cold front will approach and cross through the region Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The surface low and cut-off upper-level trough to our northeast across Newfoundland and Labrador continues to slowly fill and drift towards Greenland with unimpressive speed. With a strong ridge and elongated surface high extending from the Plains region into the Prairie Provinces of Canada, this continues to direct northwest flow straight from the Hudson Bay region, maintaining our below-average trend.

Plentiful sunshine will increase our highs a touch compared to Saturday, but it won't be much under the domination of the continued northwesterly flow and continued, albeit weaker, cold air advection. Highs will make it into the upper 30s to lower 40s on the Coastal Plain.

Changes begin to take place tonight into the day Monday as the surface high shifts across the Great Lakes towards New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces. This will introduce a more zonal 850 mb flow, which will gradually turn southwesterly into Monday as return flow moves into the region. With clearer skies tonight and weaker winds, temps should drop moreso than last night as more efficient radiational cooling takes place. Thus, one more chilly night is in store as lows look to drop into the teens north of I-76 and and the low 20s to the south.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. There was a trend with most of the latest operational models towards faster timing in the main mid level trough clearing out of the region (this comes as some of the 12Z models yesterday trended slower). However, some of the latest operational models also trended further south with a separate mid level short wave trough on Monday night, which could now (briefly) bring a secondary surge of colder air (especially at 850 mb and higher) Monday night. Despite these differences for the mid level pattern, do not expect much in the way of significant impacts for the forecast.

At this point it looks like we will have dry weather both Monday and Tuesday. However, if the secondary short wave trough on Monday night digs further south, light snow showers would be possible primarily along and north of the I-78 corridor. For now though, expect the best lift, and thus any chances of precip to remain north of our area.

Monday, with low level northwesterly flow persisting for much of the day, will once again be colder than normal, with highs in the 30s and 40s. The low level southwesterly flow should develop Monday night, and with both mid level troughs east of the area by Tuesday morning, 1000-500 mb thicknesses should increase as the mid level ridge builds east. Despite all the differences in the mid level pattern mentioned above, the latest operational models still depict 850 mb temps slightly above 0C. So expect temperatures on Tuesday to be in the 50s to lower 60s (which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal, but not as warm as the forecast for Wednesday).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overview: Tranquil weather continues through Thursday. A cold front approaching the region Thursday night through Friday night could bring the next chance for precipitation to the region.

Details:

Wednesday and Thursday . low level southerly and southwesterly flow continues as the surface high shifts east of the region and the mid level short wave ridge crosses our region Wednesday. Consequently, expect these to be the warmest days of the week with highs mostly in the 60s, except in the higher terrain of the southern Poconos and NW NJ where highs in the upper 50s are expected. Many operational models trended slightly slower with the cold front, so though I kept a slight chance for rain showers in the southern Poconos Thursday afternoon, if this trend holds the region will stay dry through the day.

Thursday night through Saturday . The cold front approaches and then crosses the region through this time. A mid level short wave trough will also slide east as it fills and weakens through this period. As with the previous shift, it appears that any precipitation with this front will be light and mostly within the warm sector (in other words, mostly rain). So I don't anticipate any significant impacts from the precipitation. Temperatures though will be trending lower. Given the slightly slower trend with the front, we may see one more day with temperatures in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Friday. However, by Saturday, temperatures should be back to near normal, with highs in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today and tonight . VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts to 15 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Monday . VFR conditions expected. Winds gradually shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR conditions expected. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable Tuesday night. High confidence.

Wednesday . VFR conditions expected. Southerly wind 5 to 15 kt. High confidence.

Thursday . VFR conditions expected, though clouds may thicken and lower especially late in the day. Southwesterly wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions expected on the coastal waters and across the bay as northwest flow continues with gusts generally at 15 knots or less. Seas from 2 to 4 feet. Seas likely to be somewhat choppy with short periods of 3 to 4 seconds through tonight.

Outlook .

Monday through Wednesday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Thursday . Wind gusts near 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft are possible, primarily on the Atlantic coastal waters.

FIRE WEATHER. The dry period will continue through mid week. At this point, it looks like wind speeds should stay low enough to preclude significant fire weather concerns. However, Monday should have very dry conditions with RH levels dropping near to below 30%, and Tuesday through Thursday will be much warmer than normal with highs in the 60s.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Davis/Deal Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Davis/Johnson Marine . Davis/Johnson Fire Weather . WFO PHI

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ	7 mi	53 min	W 6 G 8.9	37°F			1026.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor	17 mi	31 min	W 7.8 G 12		42°F		1025.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ	20 mi	65 min		39°F			1025.3 hPa
MHRN6	21 mi	53 min	WNW 6 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ	21 mi	53 min	WNW 8.9 G 9.9	38°F			1025.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY	24 mi	53 min		38°F	38°F		1025.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY	34 mi	53 min	N 8.9 G 13	36°F			1026.2 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks	40 mi	26 min	NW 7.8 G 14	39°F				17°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA	41 mi	53 min	NW 11 G 13	40°F	38°F		1026.5 hPa
44091	43 mi	45 min			41°F	2 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY	47 mi	31 min	WNW 12 G 16		41°F		1025.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ	48 mi	65 min	WNW 6 G 9.9	40°F	38°F		1025.8 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ

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NW17

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NW13 G20

NW13 G21

NW15 G22

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N9 G15

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NW13 G20

NW15 G20

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NW15 G20

NW12 G16

NW12 G21

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NW26

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NW25 G31

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NW20 G26

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NW22 G29

NW27 G33

NW27 G33

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NW28 G34

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NW19 G27

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NW24 G30

NW25 G32

NW24 G29

NW23

NW23 G29

W25 G32

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ	14 mi	45 min	Var 4	10.00 mi	Fair	40°F	14°F	35%	1026.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)

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W14 G17

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W3

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NW4

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NW11

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NW12 G18

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W9 G15

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1 day ago

W15 G27

W18 G25

W14 G22

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W15 G19

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NW24 G31

NW17 G25

NW19 G29

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NW12 G21

W18 G29

W15 G21

NW20 G27

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NW16 G23

W14 G19

W19 G24

W17 G22

W16 G24

W17 G26

NW20 G27

W15 G22

W14 G25

W21 G26

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Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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