Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:22 AM EDT (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 2:07AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1034 Pm Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1034 Pm Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes southeast of long island tonight as high pressure builds into new england through Saturday. The high retreats towards the canadian maritimes on Sunday as another low pressure approaches from the middle atlantic coast. This low passes offshore on Monday. A cold front follows Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure by Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven , NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 150519 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 119 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south over the weekend. Multiple waves of low pressure will track south of us along this boundary through Sunday. Another cold front will approach from the west on Monday and move through by Monday night. This front may stall not far offshore. High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday, with another weak cold front potentially approaching by Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. No major changes to the forecast overnight so far, mainly just minor hourly adjustments. Showers have moved to our south, so a dry forecast is expected for the rest of the night, along with mostly mid-high level clouds.

Winds will become light and variable for many areas, with those who have a steady breeze mostly from the north to northeast direction, around 5 mph or less.

Cold/dry advection will allow for a pleasant night across the area, with lows generally in the 60s and dew points dropping into the 50s near/north of I-80. Winds will generally remain somewhat elevated closer to the coast overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. A midlevel vorticity maximum will progress from the upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians on Saturday, which should gradually promote the development of a surface low in the lee of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, damming downstream of the vort max will continue to filter drier air from the surface high in the Canadian Maritimes into much of the eastern U.S. Upslope combined with large- scale lift immediately downstream of the vort max should permit the development of widespread precipitation to our south/southwest on Saturday. For our CWA, though, a banner day appears to be setting up, as residual descent from the departing surface high to our north- northeast will likely preclude the spread of precipitation northeastward. Instead, it is expected to be partly to mostly sunny for much of the day before upper cloudiness increases from southwest to northeast during the afternoon.

Deterministic models generally are too aggressive with the progression of precipitation into damming regimes, and expect the 12z GFS (e.g.) to be too quick to bring precipitation back into Delmarva (late afternoon to early evening). Have reduced PoPs to slight chance or lower for the entire CWA during the day, with fairly high confidence given model trends the past few cycles.

As for temperatures, statistical models are in good agreement, with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s (upper 70s in the higher terrain of the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey). Used a consensus blend here, which exhibits good continuity with the previous forecast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overview .

Strong western US ridging dominates much of the long term period, with troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A large area of impressively high H5 heights in the West with widespread extreme heat at the surface there. By the middle to latter part of next week, we trend towards more zonal flow but the general theme of western ridge and eastern trough holds up. A strong +PNA signal is present. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains stalled to our south through Sunday, but will be kicked away by another front on Monday. High pressure then builds in out of Canada with dry, refreshing air which lasts for most of the week. By later in the week, an old boundary to the south may try to make some northward progress as an additional frontal system or two approach from the northwest.

In terms of translating this to our local weather, the big takeaway for next week is that hot weather will be totally absent from the forecast. Temperatures run near to mainly below average through the period. Not only that, but humidity disappears from the forecast as well. With both cooler and less humid conditions prevailing, the coming week looks much quieter than recent weeks in terms of rain and storm chances. The exception is for Saturday night into Sunday as another wave of low pressure develops along the slow moving frontal boundary still stalled to our south. This low will yield cool onshore flow and some rain, especially in the southern half of the region. So unfortunately not looking like a great end to the weekend. Beyond then, however, benign weather prevails as high pressure builds in.

Dailies .

Saturday night-Sunday night . The model guidance has struggled with this period due to disagreement in where an area of low pressure will form and track along a frontal boundary still stalled to our south. This follows an initial wave of low pressure which will be well to our northeast by this time, the same low being monitored by NHC for possible tropical or subtropical development. The farther north this second low tracks, the better the chances for a period of steady rain Saturday night into Sunday. With the 14.12z guidance suite, some improvement in agreement with the more northern and southern camps working towards each other a bit. I tend to favor drier and more suppressed outcomes overall with a rather strong area of high pressure pushing south into New England. May be a rather sharp gradient with areas such as Delmarva having a good chance for steady rain, while areas such as the Poconos and northern NJ may see little to no rain. The most likely time for rainfall will be later Saturday night into at least Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon and especially evening, should trend drier. Areas of fog possible Sunday night in lingering light onshore flow.

Monday-Monday night . A weak cold front approaches Monday as low pressure tracks far to our northwest over Hudson Bay. Behind the departing low from over the weekend, Monday's air mass will be neither especially warm nor moist. Combined with frontal lift being quite weak, not expecting very robust convection ahead of the front and Monday should be a very nice day overall. A spotty afternoon or evening shower or storm is possible especially if the front comes through towards the peak heating hours, and especially to the north and west where forcing is better. But coverage looks limited.

Tuesday-Friday . Largely benign weather, and some really nice days. Little change in the air mass behind Monday's front, and with dew points coming down more and plenty of sunshine, Tuesday should see similar or slightly warmer temperatures than Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s. A similar story on Wednesday. Monday's front will clear us but stall not too far to our south. By Wednesday the tail end of it may shift north a bit, yielding an afternoon shower or storm chance mainly on Delmarva. Another weak cold front will attempt to approach from the north on Thursday, though it seems unlikely that it will make it this far south by then. But it may try to trigger a shower or storm ahead of it by Thursday afternoon mainly across the far north. In addition, the old front to the south may make a little more northward progress and produce a couple scattered storms of its own. Once again, however, expect Thursday to be another mainly dry and pleasant day, albeit slightly warmer and a bit more humid. Low confidence beyond then; we do keep the high heat away, but early indications are we may turn a bit more unsettled by next weekend.

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR conditions expected. North to northeast winds 5 knots or less, becoming light and variable for many areas. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR with increasing clouds. Winds begin the day out of the northeast 5-10 knots, then become easterly during the day with gusts around 15-20 knots from I-95 south and east, before shifting to the southeast late in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Saturday night-Sunday night . Mainly VFR initially on Saturday night, then a lengthy stretch of sub-VFR conditions are likely from later Saturday night through Sunday night. Rain showers Saturday night into the day on Sunday will produce a mix of MVFR and IFR cigs and vsbys. The worse conditions will generally be found further to the south, but most of the area will be sub- VFR. For Sunday night, rain ends, but fog development is possible. Winds mainly from the northeast around 10 kt with gusts of 20 to 25 kt possible near the coast. Winds diminish Sunday night. Moderate confidence overall.

Monday-Wednesday . VFR. A couple of wind shifts through this period, but speeds mainly less than 10 kt and winds may be light and variable for much of the period. High confidence.

MARINE. A surface low will progress east well off the Mid-Atlantic coast overnight and Saturday, with northeast winds continuing on the Atlantic waters and Delaware Bay through Saturday. Speeds should generally be 10 to 20 kt, with some gusts near 25 kt, especially on Saturday afternoon. With onshore flow continuing through the period and the low slowly intensifying, expect seas to continue building to 4 to 6 feet off the New Jersey coast late tonight and off the Delaware coast by Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these areas.

For Delaware Bay, winds are expected to remain below advisory criteria, though gusts may approach 25 kt at times, especially Saturday afternoon.

Outlook . Saturday night-Sunday night . SCA conditions are expected on the Atlantic coastal waters through this period as winds and seas build in association with offshore low pressure. Seas will run mainly 5 to 6 ft. In addition, northeast winds will gust 20 to 25 kt Saturday night into Sunday before diminishing Sunday evening and night. On Delaware Bay, wind gusts may approach 25 kt during the day on Sunday especially on the Lower Bay, but mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected.

Monday-Tuesday . SCA conditions may linger on the Atlantic coastal waters into Monday as seas slowly subside. Sub-SCA conditions will return for all waters by Monday night as seas fall to 3 to 4 ft. Northerly winds of 10 to 15 kt on Monday becoming light westerly Monday night into Tuesday.

Rip Currents . For Saturday, there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Northeasterly winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Breaking waves should be 3 to 5 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

For Sunday, there is a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Northeasterly winds continue 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Breaking waves building to 4 to 6 feet are anticipated with a short to medium period mainly wind wave from the east.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Onshore flow will continue through Sunday, with seas building off the Atlantic coast. Astronomical tides will be increasing into the weekend as well, with the new moon occurring early next week. These factors will combine to increase the chance for minor coastal flooding with the Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening high tides. Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible with the afternoon and evening high tide on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding to advisory levels is then more likely with the Sunday afternoon and evening high tide, especially from Atlantic City southward including the Delaware Atlantic coast and up Delaware Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ454-455.



Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . CMS/Gorse/Robertson Short Term . CMS Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Gorse/O'Brien/Robertson Marine . CMS/Gorse/O'Brien Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 7 mi52 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 79°F1015.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi32 min NNE 7.8 G 12 74°F3 ft1014.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi52 min 79°F1015.2 hPa
MHRN6 21 mi52 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi52 min NE 7 G 8 1014.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi52 min 76°F1015.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi52 min ENE 4.1 G 6 1015.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi52 min NNE 9.7 G 14 74°F 67°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi52 min E 4.1 G 5.1 80°F1015.5 hPa
44091 43 mi56 min 76°F5 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi42 min NNE 14 G 18 76°F4 ft1013.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 48 mi22 min NNE 9.7 G 12 75°F 62°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi46 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 79°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ14 mi26 minN 410.00 miFair70°F0°F%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmN3N3CalmE5NE4NE5NE4NE4E4E4NE3E3E4NE3CalmNE3NE3NE5
2 days agoS4SW4SW4CalmS4S5S5W43E14CalmS4CalmW4W4W3NE3CalmS3CalmS3S4S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey (2)
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Red Bank
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:36 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:26 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.71.11.92.52.932.82.31.81.20.80.60.61.32.23.13.73.93.73.22.61.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:36 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:41 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:56 PM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:22 PM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1-0.40.511.10.90.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.20.71.51.71.61.10.1-0.8-1.5-1.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.