Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Haven, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front will pass through the region this afternoon and evening.

2. A cold front is expected to cross through the region Wednesday night into Thursday resulting in more shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will pass through the region this afternoon and evening.

A cold front will approach later today and move across the region this afternoon and evening. Surface dew points will rise into the 70s today, and PWATs will be in excess of 2 inches.
SBCAPE values will increase to 1000 to 1500 J/kg as well with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Although there is the potential for some brief, locally heavy rain, shear will be limited and organized convection is not likely. PoPs will be capped at chance.

Behind the cold front, high temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but dew points will drop from the low to mid 70s to the mid 60s. While warm, it should feel more comfortable on Tuesday compared to Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to cross through the region Wednesday night into Thursday resulting in more shower and thunderstorm chances.

In the wake of tonight's cold front, weak high pressure will briefly build into the region for Tuesday and much of Wednesday.
An upper-low will traverse portions of Ontario and Quebec during this time, passing north of the region Wednesday night.
To the south of the upper-low, broad troughing will be in place across much of the Northeast, with a few embedded shortwaves pivoting around the base of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will begin to approach the area late Wednesday, and cross through the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

Timing discrepancies remain with the frontal passage amongst model guidance. Some guidance indicates the front passing through the region primarily during the overnight hours Wednesday night and clearing the region Thursday morning, while there is still some guidance to suggest slower timing. At this point, timing uncertainties limit confidence in whether or not there will be any notable severe weather or flash flooding concerns, but this will continue to bear watching, particularly if the slower solutions come to fruition. For now, PoPs peak in the 40-60% range across most of the area on Thursday.

There are also some indications that the pattern may remain unsettled into the weekend as the front could get hung up just south of the region with a couple of areas of low pressure riding along it and mid-level troughing remaining in place. PoPs are currently in the 20-40% range each day due to the present uncertainties in timing and placement of these features.

In terms of temps, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be fairly warm with modestly increasing humidity. Highs look to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temps currently look a bit cooler in the wake of the front, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s late this week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today... A round of SHRA, perhaps a TSRA, may pass across the terminals in the late afternoon/early evening with brief sub-VFR conds. Will include PROB30 groups to handle this potential. NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Lingering SHRA possible through 06Z or so. Generally VFR outside of any SHRA. N-NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR. No sig wx expected.

Wednesday night through Friday...Periods of scattered showers and perhaps storms are likely, with the greatest chance currently appearing to be late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Sub-VFR conditions are possible with any showers or storms.

MARINE
Winds have turned west and diminished slightly to 10 to 15 kt.
Seas around 5 feet will subside to 2 to 4 feet as well.

Sub-SCA conditions expected tonight.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds under 25 kts and seas under 5 feet.
Scattered showers and perhaps storms could lead to periods of visibility restrictions Wed night through Fri.

Rip Currents...

Today, west winds at 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. Breaking waves will average 1 to 2 feet. There will be an increasing southerly swell with a 5 to 7 second period. This results in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Tuesday, north-northeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will gradually turn to be more southerly at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will average 1 to 2 feet. There will continue to be a southeasterly swell with a 6 to 8 second period. The result of these conditions is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.