Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday April 9, 2020 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 404 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this evening, then increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less in the evening.
ANZ300 404 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will track up into the canadian maritimes into Friday, while high pressure over the mid section of the country builds east. The high moves across the waters Saturday night into Sunday morning. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 092240 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 640 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. In the wake of the cold front earlier on Thursday, windy conditions will continue into Friday. The low pressure system associated with the cold front will lift slowly toward the Canadian Maritimes Friday and Saturday. High pressure will build over the eastern U.S. this weekend. Another intense surface low will move from the southern Plains on Sunday to the Great Lakes region Sunday night, with an associated cold front crossing the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Another system may affect the area around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. 630 PM Update: The forecast for this evening is on track at this time. Dewpoints mixed out a bit more than forecast, but these will come up as mixing wanes into the evening. Winds continue to subside through the evening, however a few stronger gusts may still be possible. The Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire area wide at 7 PM.

A subtle mid-level wave is forecast to pass across the area just after midnight bringing a surge in the low-level jet as well as a surge of cooler air at the surface. Guidance indicates a tightening of the pressure gradient after this occurs, so there may be a period of gusts after midnight on the order of 40 mph, however BUFKIT profiles indicate the boundary layer will remain largely decoupled for most locations, so confidence is low on this. Nevertheless, winds and gusts are still forecast to increase rapidly around daybreak.

Previous discussion . After an active day of weather, convection has pushed offshore as a strong cold front barrels through the region. This is associated with rapidly intensifying low pressure over New England. As expected, in addition to the convective winds we saw earlier we are getting an enhanced surge of synoptic winds (45-55mph) as the well- mixed air mass overlaps with the strongest portion of the low level jet. As the low level winds weaken and we lose diurnal heating and the most efficient mixing, winds should diminish somewhat this evening. Overnight, gusts should come down a little more, so today's Wind Advisory will expire this evening. But a breezy night is likely with gusts over 30 mph possible.

A mainly dry night is expected, but not entirely dry especially in the northwestern half of the CWA. A couple of shortwave impulses and weak surface troughs look to rotate through the larger scale trough in place over the East. With steep lapse rates in place and some lingering low level moisture, a few showers are likely especially the further west and north you go. The best chance for this will be over the first half of the night. Temperatures will be dropping behind the front, though the elevated winds will keep them from falling off more. Still, could get cold enough for some of the showers to fall as snow especially in the Poconos, where there could even be some light accumulations (a half inch or less).

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Strong low pressure slowly begins departing into the Canadian maritimes on Friday. Not surprisingly with a sub-970mb low to our northeast and high pressure building in out of the Plains and Midwest, it will be a windy day with such a strong gradient in place. If nothing else, it looks to be a "consistent" day with fairly similar conditions both spatially and temporally during the daylight hours. Main question on this shift was whether it would be windy enough for an advisory (gusts > 45mph). Looking over BUFKIT, fairly good consistency in wind profiles among models. We will likely mix to around 750mb during the day. This combined with the wind profiles suggests potential for 40 to 50 mph gusts, and it looked convincing enough to go ahead with another wind advisory for the daylight hours Friday. Either way, it will be a noticeably windy day. Gusts should start to gradually diminish during the late afternoon and especially evening.

Expecting a mainly dry day, though likely a lot of stratocu especially to the northwest as is typical in northwest flow/cold advection regimes. A bit of additional shortwave energy comes through during the day, especially in the morning hours. A spotty shower is possible in the northwestern zones, but coverage will be less than it will be overnight. It may still be cold enough for some of the showers to fall as snow especially early. Highs well below normal for the date with 850mb temperatures around -5C. Highs mainly in the low 50s with some 40s to the north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. By Sunday, the high will drift out to sea, while return flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will warm quite a bit on Sunday as compared to Saturday. There will be a slight chance of showers on Sunday as a couple of weak short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area, but the main action moves in Sunday night into Monday.

During Sunday night, an area of low pressure will move across the Mid-West states and into the Great Lakes area, before lifting into southern Canada on Monday. This will lift an occluding frontal system across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Rainfall is expected to begin overnight Sunday, then continue into Monday morning. There is not much instability, so thunderstorms are not currently expected. However, PW values approach or exceed one inch, so periods of moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected.

The front will have moved offshore by Monday afternoon/Monday evening. Gusty wind will develop behind the front Monday and continue Monday night into Tuesday. There will be a slight chance of showers Tuesday as a couple of short waves/vorticity impulse move across the area.

By Wednesday, there is disagreement with the long term models in how they handle a potential coastal storm developing along the old cold front offshore of the east coast. The ECMWF is much more aggressive strengthening the low moving it offshore of the Mid- Atlantic and bringing rain to the area. The GFS and Canadian suppresses the system and keep rain away from the area. We will have a chance of showers due the uncertainty, but no more than 40 percent.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight . Mainly VFR. Localized MVFR ceilings possible especially near RDG and ABE. Showers are possible especially northwest of PHL mainly between 0z and 06z. Westerly or west- northwesterly winds expected through tonight. Gusts up to 40 kt possible through this evening. Winds will diminish somewhat overnight but could continue gusting to 30-40 kt, especially after 06Z. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR with broken ceilings of 4000-6000 feet likely from PHL northwestward. West-northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Winds will slowly start to diminish in the evening. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday night and Saturday . Mainly VFR with west to northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. High confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR with winds becoming southerly and diminishing to around or below 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Generally VFR (though CIGs will be lowering through the day, possibly approaching sub-VFR late) with winds becoming southeasterly 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts, especially near the coast. Low confidence.

Sunday night and Monday . Periods of sub-VFR probable with a good chance of rain. Southeast to south winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts becoming southwest on Monday. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Mostly VFR conditions are expected. Westerly winds of 10 to 15 kt are possible. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Through Friday night . A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters thanks to west-northwesterly winds gusting 35 to 45 kt. Some of the strongest gusts will occur through this evening. Winds may then decrease somewhat tonight, and gusts may go below gale criteria for a few hours, but will remain near 30 to 35 kt much of the night. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are then likely most of the day tomorrow before they gradually diminish tomorrow night. Cannot rule out a couple of storm force gusts both this afternoon/evening and again during the day on Friday, but those gusts, if any, should be isolated. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

Outlook .

Saturday . Advisory conditions will likely continue, with west to northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Saturday night . Sub-advisory winds/seas anticipated.

Sunday . South winds increasing to advisory levels. Seas approaching advisory criteria late in the day.

Sunday night and Monday . South to southwest winds increasing further, possibly approaching gale criteria on Monday. Seas 5 to 10 feet

Tuesday . Once seas subside below 5 ft, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

FIRE WEATHER. Forecast relative humidity values are forecast to drop below 30% during the day Friday. This combined with windy conditions throughout the day will lead to enhanced fire danger. Relative humidity values in Carbon and Monroe Counties are forecast to remain higher, so the Special Weather Statement has not been issued for these areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected again on Saturday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027. DE . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>004. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for DEZ001>004. MD . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008-012-015- 019-020. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008-012-015- 019-020. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . CMS/Johnson Near Term . O'Brien/Staarmann Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Johnson/Robertson Aviation . Johnson/O'Brien/Staarmann Marine . Johnson/O'Brien Fire Weather . Staarmann/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi127 min NW 23 G 32 54°F 53°F991.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi107 min NW 21 G 27 52°F 4 ft991.2 hPa38°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi127 min 54°F 51°F991.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi127 min NW 25 G 35 54°F 991.1 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi127 min NW 28 G 35
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi127 min 54°F 50°F991.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi127 min N 27 G 32 51°F 56°F992.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi127 min WNW 25 G 37 52°F 32°F34°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi127 min NNW 17 G 23 56°F 57°F993.2 hPa
44091 44 mi97 min 48°F6 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi167 min 19 G 21 50°F 46°F5 ft989.5 hPa (+2.4)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi157 min WNW 25 G 41 52°F 3 ft34°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi41 minNW 21 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy53°F28°F38%993.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi46 minWNW 21 G 3010.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy51°F28°F43%993 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi46 minWNW 18 G 2810.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy52°F23°F32%993.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE5S6SE3E3SE5SE4SE4SE3SE7SE7SE11SE12
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1 day agoS5S4S4S4S3SW5S4SW6W11
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2 days agoS5SW7SW6SW8SW6SW4W4W3NW4NW5W3CalmCalmCalmNW33E5SE11
G15
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G17
S11SE10SE8S8

Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:34 AM EDT     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:32 AM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:36 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM EDT     2.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-2-2.6-2.6-2.1-1.2-0.11.22.12.11.70.8-0.5-1.6-2.3-2.5-2.1-1.3-0.312.12.42.11.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.