Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:30PM Sunday July 5, 2020 10:29 PM EDT (02:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 720 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 720 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface low pressure trough will persist nearby into Monday, before a backdoor cold front passes through Monday afternoon into night. This front will lift toward the area on Tuesday afternoon, and lift north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. A southern low will approach and track near the area from the south Friday into Saturday, with a series of weak fronts moving through the area this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 060148 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of boundaries will meander through the region, finally pulling northward as a warm front by Tuesday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible through much of the week. These fronts will work northward as a warm front by Tuesday. An area of low pressure will form along the Gulf Coast and work its way towards the Carolinas by late week, possibly impacting us as a coastal storm into the weekend. A cold front is then poised to impact the region Sunday behind this system.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Convection has dissipated across the area, as diurnal instability has waned and larger-scale lift has diminished. Weak transient ridging/descent will occur for the next few hours before another low-amplitude vorticity maximum moves through the region late tonight. Not out of the question a stray shower develops in advance of this perturbation, but think this potential is too low for mention in the forecast at this point.

Potential for fog is lower tonight, especially with dew points noticeably lower in the northern/central portions of the CWA. Some localized fog is probable, but this potential seems too sparse/low for mention at this time. One thing that is expected to occur beginning late tonight is an increase in near-surface moisture from south to north, as some pooling begins to occur in advance of the next backdoor front approaching the area on Monday. Get ready for a muggy Monday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. On Monday, another backdoor front approaches from the north and settles across the area, while moisture increases as PW values increase to 1.50-1.75 inches. A couple of short waves/vorticity impulses are forecast to move across the area, which will lead to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day, especially in the afternoon. CAPE values will be between 2,000- 3,000+ J/kg, but shear continues to be marginal around 25-30 knots or less. However, with dry mid levels, DCAPE values are near 1,000+ J/kg, so some strong gusts could occur. Also, wet-bulb 0 heights are around 10,000-11,000 feet, so hail will also be possible. With the elevated PW values, heavy rainfall will also be a concern, especially where storms move slowly.

The backdoor front will remain in place Monday night, but CAPE values drop after sunset. However, there will continue to be a couple of short waves/vorticity impulses moving across the area during the evening and overnight. PW values remain around 1.50-1.75 inches, so any showers or possible thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall.

The stalled out frontal boundary will remain across the area during the day Tuesday, but will start lifting northward later in the day into Tuesday night. There will continue to be a couple of short waves/vorticity impulses moving across the area, which will continue to lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be qualitatively similar to Monday, except for possibly somewhat weaker instability. Consequently, similar hazards are expected with any convection on Tuesday versus Monday.

The backdoor front will lift northward overnight Tuesday, and CAPE values drop after sunset. However, there will continue to be a couple of short waves/vorticity impulses moving across the area during the evening and overnight, so some chances of convection remain in the forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A very summer-like pattern continues to hold strong through the upcoming week as the polar jet remains anchored well to the north across the Northern Tier of the country. Weak steering flow associated with a mid-level impulse will begin to organize itself in the form of a surface low by Thursday, with increasing confidence in this low impacting our region as some form of a coastal low by the end of the week and into the early portion of the weekend. A cold front looks to follow this low as a stronger mid-level trough works into the eastern U.S. Highs look to sit near to five degrees or so above average in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the week.

By Wednesday, a surface low will begin to organize beneath a southern stream shortwave perturbation somewhere along the Gulf Coast. This low will slowly work its way north and east toward the Carlina Coast through the end of the workweek. Guidance appears to have a solid handle on this leg of the forecast so far but things begin to tank from this point onward.

Yesterday, we discussed the lack in track agreement, but it appears this has improved but not at the expense of timing agreement. The EC has now come into better agreement on a further westward track taking the low over our region up the East Coast Friday into Saturday, but the GFS now progresses the low even faster, clearing our region by Friday night, yielding almost a 24 hour timing divergence. A large portion of this disagreement appears to center over the wavelength of the incoming synoptic trough over the Midwest. The EC brings a much stronger shortwave trough on the backside of this synoptic trough, something largely missing in the GFS, which keeps a more uniform singly curved trough.

Given these track differences, it is no surprise that a conflict in precipitation forecasts is also occurring. The GFS keeps the bulk of the rainfall in the eastern quadrant of the storm over the Atlantic, but brings heavier rainfall with the approaching cold front associated with the incoming trough to our west. The EC merges these features to our north after the southern low passes overhead, dry- slotting us to a greater extent ahead of the approaching cold front. At this time, anywhere from 1 to 2 inches looks possible across the region, unless significant track changes occur.

By Sunday, the surface low pulls to our north, but guidance seems unsure of the placement of the incoming cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are possible with this front, especially if it trends slower, crossing the region into the afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday look to remain similar with upper 80s to near 90 in the urban corridor. Taking a middle of the road approach, keeping the mention of Chance PoPs through early Saturday.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR, though cannot completely rule out some patchy fog/low clouds late. Light/variable winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday and Monday night . Mainly VFR; however, a good chance of storms exists during the afternoon and evening. Sub-VFR conditions should be expected with any storms affecting the terminals. Storms may produce strong wind gusts and torrential downpours. Outside of any convection, mainly light west or southwest winds are expected, possibly becoming more southerly on Monday night. Moderate confidence overall, but low confidence on the timing of storm impacts on the terminals.

Tuesday and Tuesday night . Very similar conditions expected to Monday and Monday night. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday and Thursday . VFR conditions prevail with temporary restrictions in afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds generally out of the south from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible in stronger showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence.

Friday . MVFR conditions possible with lowering CIGs amidst onshore flow ahead of an approaching surface low to our southwest. East- southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence in timing of this low, however.

MARINE. Tonight-Tuesday night . Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, although winds could gust around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day which could lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Outlook .

Wednesday and Thursday..Sub-advisory conditions are forecast through the end of the workweek. Southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts around 15 knots. A few gusts to near 20 knots possible at times each afternoon, especially with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Seas ranging from 2 to 3 feet.

Friday . Sub-advisory conditions anticipated with easterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. However, seas may build to 5 feet, especially across the southern three Atlantic zones.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents through Tuesday. However, conditions may be locally moderate near the times of low tide owing to increasing southerly flow through the period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor tidal flooding is occurring with this evening's high tide again on the Atlantic coast. However, as expected, the observed levels are lower than yesterday. As a result, no coastal flood advisory will be required.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . CMS/Robertson Short Term . CMS/Robertson Long Term . Davis Aviation . CMS/Davis Marine . CMS/Davis/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . CMS Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi60 min S 5.1 G 5.1 80°F 76°F1014.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi40 min S 14 G 16 75°F3 ft1013.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi60 min 85°F 76°F1013.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi60 min E 6 G 7 80°F 1013.7 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi60 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi60 min 78°F 73°F1014 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi60 min SSW 7 G 8.9 79°F 1014.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi45 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 72°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi60 min S 5.1 G 5.1 81°F 82°F1014.6 hPa
44091 44 mi64 min 75°F3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi40 min SSW 12 G 14 76°F 76°F3 ft1014.3 hPa73°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi45 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 1 ft70°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi34 minSSW 510.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1014.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi39 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F71°F85%1014.2 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi39 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F69°F61%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S4CalmS3SW4SW5E5S6S6SW6W6W6CalmW8NW7NW7E10SE8SE6CalmS3S5SW5
1 day agoSE4E5E5E6NE5NE6NE7NE5NE6NE7N9NE65NW7E3E7E7E6SE6SE5S5SE5SE7SE4
2 days agoCalmW4W3W5W5W5W4W3W5NW7NW9NW6NW7N6NW8N4E8SE6SE6SE6SE5E10E11E7

Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:47 AM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:48 PM EDT     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     2.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-2.2-2.3-2-1.4-0.40.81.51.61.30.5-0.5-1.3-1.9-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.2122.221.30.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.