Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:31PM Saturday December 7, 2019 4:08 AM EST (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:12PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 957 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Saturday...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Periods of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Occasional showers.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain and snow showers in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 957 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through the area this evening. High pressure will follow for Saturday and then build offshore on Sunday. A slow moving frontal system will affect the area through mid week, followed by high pressure late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 070224 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 924 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure across New England this evening will cause a cold front to cross the Middle Atlantic region. A large area of high pressure from the Great Lakes will build across the area this weekend. Once the high moves away early next week, a series of low pressure systems and fronts will affect the area into the middle of the week. More high pressure with cold air arrives for later next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. 930 pm update: Increased hourly temperatures a couple degrees for the next few hours, as models are not accounting for mixing from gusty post-frontal winds muting radiational cooling sufficiently. Otherwise, no changes were required.

630 pm update: Showers are moving steadily through New Jersey at this hour, and have increased PoPs through 8 pm in advance of these. Otherwise, forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion .

Cold front is now progressing through PA as the mid and upper level short wave trough digs closer to the region. A few showers continue to be possible late this afternoon into early this evening. Aside from the Poconos, where some snow may mix with rain, for most of the region if we see any precipitation, it should be all rain.

As the cold front crosses our region this evening, expect an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds and a brief period of breezy conditions behind the front. Much of the guidance shows winds staying relatively light even behind the front, but expect that the guidance is a bit too fast in showing the development of the nocturnal inversion in the higher elevations of NW NJ and the Poconos. Thus gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be possible in these locations through the evening. Additionally, this is a prime setup for gusty winds on the waters, so coastal locations, and especially locations near the mouth of the Delaware Bay could see wind gusts to 30 mph through the evening.

Will likely see cold air advection for much of the night. Thus, expect lows to be slightly lower than this morning, with lows in the 20s (with the exception of Philly and portions of Delmarva where lows could be right around 30).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. High pressure begins to build in leading to decreasing, but still persistent northwest flow and cold air advection. With the large scale subsidence, should have dry weather and few clouds through the day. Temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 30s and lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Saturday night and Sunday will feature nice weather as large high pressure across the region Sunday morning will move offshore Sunday night. Temperatures will be close to average Sunday afternoon after a cold morning. Highs will reach the low/mid 40s across the north and central areas while upper 40s and low 50s will be across the metro areas and Delmarva.

Low pressure will advance towards the area early next week. A stream of moisture will develop over the area Sunday night and persist through Monday and beyond. Frequent clouds and rains will be found across the region. The rains and poor weather will continue into Tuesday. It will become unseasonably mild, especially Tuesday when highs will be in the 50s north/west and low 60s for Delmarva and south NJ. QPF for the period could be in the 1 to 2 inch range, so the possibility of some localized poor drainage flooding can't be ruled out. Also, if temps do not warm quick enough across the north/west areas Sunday night, a little snow at the onset is possible.

As the system moves away Tuesday night and Wednesday, colder air will arrive from the N/W. P-type could become an issue again with the rains possibly changing to snow before ending. We'll have to watch this with the possibility for some accums across the Poconos and north NJ. (other areas possible too). Temps will drop back through the 40s Wed and 30s Wed night.

The end of next week will feature dry, but cold weather. Highs Thu will be well below normal with 30s regionwide, some moderation possible Fri. Another system may approach for next weekend with more rains/snows possible.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with CIGs dissipating by late evening. Southwest winds will become abruptly northwest by 03z across the area, with speeds of 5 to 15 kt. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday night-Sunday . VFR expected. Increasing clouds Sunday.

Sunday night thru Wednesday . Widespread IFR expected with LIFR also possible at times. Rains, low clouds and fog much of the time. Gusty winds expected, especially near the coast.

MARINE. 930 pm update: Converted the gale warning to a small craft advisory for the northern New Jersey Atlantic waters, as stronger gusts have not materialized this evening. Still expecting a period of stronger gusts for the next few hours, but no longer expecting gale conditions. No other changes were necessary at this time.

Previous discussion .

Gale conditions are expected in the vicinity of Sandy Hook through late this evening, so have issued a gale warning for the coastal waters adjacent to Monmouth County. Otherwise, expect breezy southwesterly winds through early this evening, with SCA conditions expected on the rest of the Atlantic coastal waters. On the Delaware Bay, gusts near 20 kt are expected.

Then this evening, a cold front will bring an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds resulting in SCA conditions on the lower Delaware Bay and most of the Atlantic coastal waters, with gales still possible for the Monmouth County coastal waters.

Winds should diminish quickly near sunrise, and during the day tomorrow, winds and seas should stay below SCA.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday night-Sunday night . Sub-SCA. Fair thru Sunday than rains developing Sun night.

Monday-Wednesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely with Gales possible. Rain and fog much of the time.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431- 450>455.

Synopsis . O'Hara Near Term . CMS/Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/Johnson/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi51 min NW 15 G 24 36°F 41°F1024 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi39 min NW 21 G 25 39°F 49°F1023.5 hPa27°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi51 min 36°F 45°F1024.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi51 min NW 13 G 17 36°F 1023.6 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi51 min NW 12 G 16
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi51 min 35°F 47°F1023.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi51 min N 12 G 16 36°F 42°F1024.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi39 min NW 12 G 18 36°F 32°F24°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi57 min N 1.9 G 6 35°F 39°F1024.6 hPa
44091 44 mi39 min 51°F5 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi79 min NNW 19 G 23 40°F 51°F5 ft1022 hPa (+2.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi73 minNW 910.00 miFair34°F19°F56%1023.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi78 minNNW 1610.00 miA Few Clouds35°F24°F64%1023.5 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi78 minNW 1310.00 miA Few Clouds35°F19°F52%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW5SW4SW6SW5SW6SW6W8W8W5W6W7SW4SW3SW3SW3W6SW4W9W7W5SW4SW5SW6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:11 AM EST     1.49 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:32 PM EST     1.24 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.61.31.51.410.1-0.7-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.8-00.81.21.210.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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