Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:19PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:39 PM EDT (01:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:07PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 649 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 649 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A dry cold frontal passage this evening will be followed by building high pressure through Tuesday. A frontal system will approach on Wednesday, with a rapidly intensifying coastal low tracking just southeast of the area Wednesday night, and into the canadian maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure builds in for next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 150116
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
916 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move offshore tonight, with high pressure
moving through the region on Tuesday. A strong low and attendant
cold front will progress through the eastern u.S. On Wednesday. As
the low intensifies in new england on Thursday, strong northwest
flow will become established across the mid-atlantic. High pressure
returns to the region for the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Forecast largely on track. Will make some minor adjustments to
the database based on the latest surface obs, but no significant
changes otherwise.

A weak cold front moving through pennsylvania will pass through
the region around midnight tonight. It will pass through dry,
so not even expecting much cloud cover with its passage. Winds
will be light, turning north late, but becoming nearly calm in
the pre-dawn hours.

Overnight mins will run several degrees colder than last night,
due to the lack of low clouds. Mid-upper 30s are possible in
the poconos NW nj and 40s elsewhere. Although some fog in the
prone river valleys of eastern pa and NW nj cannot be ruled
out, the relatively dry airmass should prevent anything
widespread from developing.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Another pleasant day is expected Tuesday as high pressure
shifts overhead before moving offshore Tuesday afternoon. Highs
will be slightly cooler than today due to tonight's cold front,
with most locations seeing highs around seasonal norms
(generally in the mid 60s). Expect abundant sunshine (apart from
some passing cirrus) with generally low humidity values.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
All eyes are on the soaking rain event for Wednesday, followed
by the potential for windy conditions on Thursday.

The 12z operational model runs continue to advertise a potent
midlevel vortex moving from the great lakes region Tuesday night
to the northeast on Wednesday night. A small-scale vort MAX will
allow the larger-scale vortex to pivot during the day Wednesday,
quickly re-orienting the trough to a neutral tilt on Wednesday
morning and a negative tilt by Wednesday evening. During this
evolution, a predecessor surface low will migrate from the great
lakes Tuesday night to the saint lawrence valley by Wednesday
afternoon. A cold front will extend south of the surface low,
with widespread rain near and downstream of the front in a
region of considerable differential cyclonic vorticity advection
and isentropic ascent. As sustained deep ascent continues along
the front, triple-point low development will ensue near the nose
of a 500-mb jet streak (during the evolution from neutral to
negative tilt of the upper-level trough). Models continue to
show some discrepancies on where this new low will develop and
ultimately track. Nevertheless, some convergence was noted among
the cmc, nam, gfs, and ECMWF today. This provides increased
confidence in using a consensus approach to most sensible
weather fields during this period.

The biggest uncertainty (as usual) is with qpf, with the gfs
much drier than the ECMWF nam (roughly middle of the road), and
the cmc much wetter. This is clearly tied to how close the newly
developing low tracks to the coast, with the cmc nearest the
cwa and the GFS nam much farther offshore. The ECMWF is well
between the two extremes and agrees with ensemble means as well.

Given these factors, used a blend of model QPF for the
Wednesday Wednesday night forecast as well, but with slightly
more weight to the ECMWF and nam. The result is widespread 1-2
inch totals (highest amounts north and east). Notably, the gfs
features totals about 50-75 percent of these values, with the
cmc in the range of 2-4+ inches. (in other words, large
uncertainty remains.) I also increased pops a little bit
Wednesday night, with indications from some of the guidance of a
slower progression of the front precipitation than previous
simulations.

Given improved consensus on the evolution of the low and
universal indications of soaking rain, increased pops to
categorical on Wednesday into Wednesday evening for virtually
the entire cwa. I also did indicate slight chances for thunder
during the day as well, which is most likely if the low tracks
closer to the coast (a la the cmc ecmwf). This agrees with
neighboring offices as well as the SPC day-3 outlook.

Once the triple-point low lifts northeastward and stalls as the
system begins to fill on Thursday, the region will become
entrenched in strong northwest flow on the upstream side. Bufkit
soundings indicate mixing to 800 mb, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
likely in such an environment. Bumped winds up some more with
the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday night. Forecast is
shy of wind advisory criteria, but we may see some issues with
trees and power lines given (1) the antecedent rains weakening
soils and (2) leaves remaining on the trees.

Temperatures are expected to be much colder Thursday as strong
cold advection encompasses the region. However, this may be
tempered to some degree by strong mixing and improving sky
cover. Farther north, wraparound moisture may linger long enough
for some residual showers (generally north of i-80). The ecmwf
continues to trend this direction (with hints of this from other
models too). Increased pops and lowered temperatures in this
region.

High pressure builds into the region to close the week into the
weekend. Should see dry conditions and warming temperatures
through this period. The next system looks to affect the region
early next week, with another decent rain event possible.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR skc. Light west winds will become north by
midnight. Wind speeds will generally be 5 kt or less.

Tuesday...VFR skc. Lgt vrb winds, becoming S 5 kt or less in the
afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR with light southeast winds. High
confidence.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Quickly deteriorating
conditions during the day with cig vsby restrictions and rain
likely. South to southeast winds 5 to 15 kt becoming west to
northwest 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts possible (especially
overnight). Moderate confidence.

Thursday... MainlyVFR (though some sub-vfr could linger north
of phl) with strong northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 35
kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night and Friday... MainlyVFR with northwest winds 5
to 15 kt (possibly gusty Thursday evening). Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday... MainlyVFR with light and variable
winds Friday night becoming light west or southwest on Saturday.

Moderate confidence.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions will prevail through Tuesday with fair weather.

Seas will run around 2-3 ft, with initially SW winds shifting to the
north around 10-15 kts tonight before becoming light and variable
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... Sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Wednesday... Quickly deteriorating conditions with southeast
winds increasing to 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts and seas
building to near 5 feet. Rain likely.

Wednesday night... Rain likely, especially in the evening. Winds
switching to northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 kt with higher
gusts. Gales possible, especially late.

Thursday... Gale conditions likely.

Thursday night... At least advisory-level northwest winds likely,
with lingering gales possible in the evening.

Friday... Lingering advisory conditions possible, but northwest
winds are forecast to diminish below criteria by afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Carr mps
short term... Carr
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms carr mps
marine... Cms carr mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi52 min W 7 G 8 64°F 64°F1015.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi40 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 66°F1015.4 hPa (+2.1)52°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi58 min 65°F 64°F1015.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi52 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 1015 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi52 min W 7 G 8.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi52 min 66°F 64°F1015.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi52 min NW 6 G 8 67°F 64°F1015.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi55 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 32°F49°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi58 min Calm G 1.9 58°F 64°F1016 hPa
44091 44 mi40 min 65°F4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi50 min SSW 16 G 18 64°F 64°F3 ft1015.5 hPa (+1.9)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi70 min SSW 7.8 G 12 63°F 1 ft58°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi44 minSW 410.00 miFair61°F41°F48%1016.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi49 minW 910.00 miFair67°F42°F41%1015.5 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi49 minW 510.00 miFair65°F39°F40%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S4CalmE3N3NE3CalmCalmE3NW3NW4W3W3W5SW8SW8W8W11
G16
W8W8W6W5W5SW4
1 day agoW4W4W4W5W5W5W4W4NW5W5NW6NW5N6N5NE5E7S6E7SE5SE4SE7SE3SE3SE5
2 days agoN12
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Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
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Mon -- 01:52 AM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:47 AM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-1.8-2-1.7-1.1-0.40.71.71.91.61-0-1-1.7-2.1-2-1.4-0.80.11.21.61.51.10.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.