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FXUS61 KPBZ 282002 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 402 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperature is expected through much of the upcoming week while precipitation chances will be mainly focused on Tuesday and Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
- Afternoon showers and storms possible north.

------------------------------------------------------------------ 4pm Update: No major changes have been made to this forecast period. Stray showers are visible on the radar near I-80 region. However, with mid-level warming and weak ascent, lightning has not been noted. Updrafts have been mostly capped below 14kft.

Previous Discussion:

Dry and seasonably warm temperature is expected for much of the region today under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure centered over the Carolinas. High temperature should exceed yesterday's readings by a few degrees, with any shortfall in reaching forecasted temps likely tied to cu coverage.

The exception is the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon hours mainly along and north of I-80. A weak shortwave will traverse the ridge axis and provide enough lift along with a weak lake breeze boundary near Erie to initiate convection. Warm air aloft may limit overall coverage or even cap/limit convective initiation, while keeping severe threats low (given weak shear and modest SBCAPE).

Partly to mostly clear skies and light wind are expected overnight, with the warm airmass maintaining well above normal temperature. Record high minimum temperature could be approached at a few climate sites.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high max temperature Monday and high min temperature Tuesday are each possible.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.

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Eastern CONUS ridging will remain intact Monday as an upper level trough lifts northward through the northern Mississippi River Valley. Warm air aloft and subsidence will cap any convection, keeping dry conditions in place and allowing for plenty of insolation. Near to record high temperatures are in play for most climate sites, with only a deviation toward 75th to 90th percentile temperature to realize new records. This is not out of question as high temperature this past Saturday for most sites ended up above the 90th percentile outcome.

Gradual ridge breakdown will occur Monday night into Tuesday with shortwave movement shunts the ridge axis southeast.
Increase moist advection resulting in higher cloud cover should insulate the region and buoy low temperature Tuesday morning.
Near to record high minimum temperature at most climate sites could result (see climate section).

Variability remains in the strength of the initial wave and presence of a follow-up trough, but either upper level feature is expected to be weak while slowly pushing a weak cold front through the region. Shortwave trough shape/movement will dictate precipitation timing and degree of heating ahead of the cold front; latest trends have a slower progression of these features that keep precipitation chance into Tuesday night. Any severe threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave. It still appears that the severe threat will be limited given excessive cloud cover and residual warm air aloft acting to cap upward momentum (CAPE values likely to be less than 500 J/kg).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with above-average temperatures favored.

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High pressure and ridging are likely to develop behind the exiting shortwave Wednesday, though the degree of height rises remain uncertain. Further re-establishment of the eastern CONUS ridge (and central plains trough) will drive area temperature well above normal again both Wednesday and Thursday while maintaining dry weather.

Ensembles favor upper level trough movement through the Great Lakes region Friday into the weekend that would push the ridge axis southeast and introduce widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Timing of said pattern shift (which will play role in precipitation timing and temperature trends Friday into Saturday).

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR will prevail through the TAF period under a building ridge.

There is slight chance of showers/thunderstorms at FKL and DUJ late this afternoon as a disturbance crosses southern Ontario/Lake Erie on the northern periphery of the mentioned ridge, however, chances are not high enough for TAF inclusion at this time.

Outlook
VFR is expected through Monday under a ridge of high pressure.
Restrictions are likely Tuesday in showers and a few thunderstorms with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure.

CLIMATE
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record High Year Record Low Year Pittsburgh 88 (1899) 65 (1974)
Wheeling 86* (1942) 64 (1914)
Morgantown 91 (1899) 67 (1914)
New Philadelphia 90 (1986) 64 (1974)
Zanesville 90 (1899) 67 (1914)
Dubois 80* (1970) 61* (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record Low Year Pittsburgh 69 (1899)
Wheeling 58* (1911)
Morgantown 66 (1910)
New Philadelphia 63 (1991)
Zanesville 69 (1910)
Dubois 60* (1970)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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