Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Homestead, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Very cold through this weekend; warmer, but below average next week.

2) Low, but non-zero light snow chances over the next few days.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Anomalously cold weather is expected to continue throughout the period.

Rising temperature this morning with bountiful sunshine lent to expiring the active Cold Weather Advisory for much of the forecast area. Moderation towards mid-teens air temperature readings is expected today before falling overnight.

There is a widespread 70% to 80% chance areas remain cloud free, most likely in western PA and eastern Ohio. Some high clouds may hang on in northern West Virginia. Clear skies, combined with 850mb temperatures near -20C, and only a light wild will result in what will likely be the coldest night of the outbreak for most, with widespread lows in the negatives. Even a brief 5kt wind for the hilltops could take most areas below wind chill criteria, and cold air drainage for the insulated valleys may take temperatures below criteria. Thus, an areawide cold weather advisory spans from 7pm tonight to 11am Saturday.

Extreme cold is expected through at least Sunday, with additional cold weather products possible each night through Sunday night. This cold will challenge many area records (see climate section). This may be one of 10 times in Pittsburgh history where the average temp was recorded at 15F or lower for 8 consecutive days. Analogs for similar temperatures in 1994, 2015, and 2018 showed widespread impacts to infrastructure. The cold will allow any snow that is not plowed or shoveled to remain in place and frozen through the week, making travel difficult on back-roads.

There is high confidence in some temperature moderation next week, with the only uncertainty in exact temperatures related to the depth of the eastern trough. Inter quartiles maintain highs into the mid 20s to low 30s with lows in the teens. These temperatures still average around 10 degrees below average, with at least a 75% chance each days high remains below freezing for now. River ice growth will continue accordingly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Largely low-to-no impact light snow and flurries remain possible tomorrow. While numerical modeling is very pessimistic on this, the forecast will at least carry a chance of flurries with some building diurnal cumulus possible and efficient snow production in mixed phase clouds. The trend of "if you see a cloud, it might be snowing" continues.

The next chances of accumulating snow comes Wednesday and Friday with passing clippers. Chances of 1" of snow are 30% to 50% (areawide) and 20% to 70% (highest for western PA and the mountains of WV) accordingly.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...

1) Morning low ceilings northeast of PIT; less restrictive clouds south of Mason-Dixon Line 2) Widespread restrictions expected mid- week with a developing disturbance

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Cold advection is providing patchy IFR/LIFR ceilings to the northeast of PIT this morning, primarily impacting DUJ and on a more intermittent basis at FKL. Restrictions are less likely at other terminals this morning, but trends will be monitored. VFR ceilings will also remain until late morning at MGW. A flurry or two is possible where clouds are present. These will be mostly non-restrictive but could drop visibility to MVFR at times.

Otherwise, VFR is forecast with moderate confidence. Some scattered afternoon cumulus are possible, most likely northeast of PIT, and these will collapse with sunset. Winds will generally remain light from the west and northwest through tonight.

Outlook... Persistent east coast troughing will provide periodic rounds of light snow ceiling restrictions through the weekend.

Long-range models suggest a disturbance developing Tuesday into Wednesday that will likely create widespread restrictions.

CLIMATE
An anomalously cold airmass will challenge some area records for daily cold temperatures and duration of cold temperatures.
Various cold records are listed below for reference.

Daily Cold Records at Risk of being Broken Friday 1/30: Pittsburgh, PA (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -5F (2019)
Pittsburgh, PA (Daily Low Max Temp Record) 10F (1977)
Dubois, PA (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -10F (2019)
Wheeling, WV (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -5F (2019)
Wheeling, WV (Daily Low Max Temp Record) 12F (1934)
Zanesville, OH (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -4F (2019)

Daily Cold Records at Risk of being Broken Saturday 1/31: Pittsburgh, PA (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -5F (2019)
Morgantown, WV (Daily Low Max Temp Record) 12F (1965)
Wheeling, WV (Daily Low Max Temp Record) 12F (2019)
Wheeling, WV (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -8F (1948)
New Philadelphia, OH (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -6F (2019)
Zanesville, OH (Daily Low Max Temp Record) 11F (2019)
Zanesville, OH (Daily Low Min Temp Record) -8F (1955)

Most Consecutive Days with Temp below <=25F in Pittsburgh: 1) 15 days - ending February 3rd, 1961 2) 12 days - ending January 6th, 2018 T2) 12 days - ending December 26th, 1989 T2) 12 days - ending February 19th, 1958 5) 11 days - ending December 16th, 1958 T5) 11 days - ending February 2nd, 1936

Most Consecutive Days with Minimum Temp <=10F in Pittsburgh: 1) 14 days - ending February 2nd, 1936 T1) 14 days - ending January 17th, 1912 3) 11 days - ending December 24th, 1989 T3) 11 days - ending January 13th, 1981 5) 10 days - ending February 21st, 2015

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.