Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Homestead, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Rain chances continue much of this week. Longer duration rainfall totals could be high and lead to localized flooding and/or river rises into Wednesday morning.

2) Below-normal temperatures linger through much of the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light rainfall continues across much of the area with continued overrunning. Flood risk in this activity is null. A southward moving kink in the front has cleared our WV counties casting large questions as to whether or not we can even support the convection required to get heavy rain back into our WV counties this evening. This chance looks to be falling as we speak, with Tucker the most likely culprit if any. A fractured, weak convective line in central WV poses little threat to our northern WV counties but the area will continue to be monitored.

Later this evening and into the overnight period, a wave of low pressure riding along the main frontal boundary just to our south will reinvigorate showers especially to the south and east of Pittsburgh in the higher terrain, and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two in northern West Virginia with fumes of MUCAPE. Precipitable water remaining above 1.5 inches and decent warm-cloud depths of 10-11kft will continue to support efficient rain rates. While a brief lull is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning, additional rounds of showers are likely right on through Tuesday night and into Wednesday at least, as an upper trough slowly digs toward the region from the Upper Midwest and potentially closes into an upper low Wednesday night or Thursday morning in our general vicinity.

24-hour HRRR mean precipitation totals from 8 PM tonight through 8 PM Tuesday generally range from 1 to 1.25 inches down the spine of the ridges and through Morgantown. 90th percentile totals are mostly between 1.5 and 2.5 inches, with a few 3+ bullseyes illustrating the localized high rainfall potential.
The probability of 1"+ hourly rates on the HRRR through the period is quite low, but think this may be a bit underdone, especially into Tuesday morning, given the convergence potential in the terrain and the still-high PWAT. Much of this area is already quite wet, with 1-hour flash flood guidance values around or just below an inch. While the flash flooding threat overall may be decreasing especially after tonight, overflow/areal flooding threats remain. Thus, elected to extend a good portion of the Flood Watch through 12Z Wednesday.
Counties west of PIT/HLG were allowed to drop, as these areas are expected to avoid the higher rain rates/overall precip totals.

Support for rain continues through Wednesday and into Thursday as the upper low develops, with higher totals backing a bit into eastern Ohio - 0.50" to 1.0 mean 24 hour totals through 8 PM Wednesday according to the NBM. We won't lose the support for continued rain until likely Thursday when the upper low exits and surface high pressure centered over New England establishes and kicks the surface boundary out. There is still hope for a drier pattern for Friday and next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Cool temperatures are still figured for much of the week. Much of southwest PA/eastern Ohio north of the surface boundary has sunk into the 50s today, while 60s are maintained south of I-70.
Given the abundant cloud cover and stubborn east/northeast flow, higher ridge locations may have trouble reaching 60 degrees Tuesday through Thursday. Lower and mid 60s are still figured west of the terrain, although lower values may again be possible in rain-cooled air. Minimum temperatures will remain fairly close to normal given abundant moisture, but daytime highs are still figured to run 10 degrees below normal through Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Scattered showers are expected through the period at the TAF sites. The saturated region will mainly be IFR and below through just about the entire period. Winds are expected to be from the north through a large part of the period with also period of light and variable winds. Otherwise, expect some wind gusts across the area up to 20 knots through the overnight and int tomorrow.

Expect restrictions to persist through the night with low stratus, fog, and passing showers impacting the terminals.
Thunderstorms are possible but have only been put in for MGW.

Outlook...
Restriction chances lingering through at least Wednesday with plenty of moisture and on-and-off rain chances.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for PAZ021-029-031- 073>076.
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ059-068-069.
WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WVZ002>004-012-021- 509>514.