Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Homestead, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Heat may impact sensitive populations early this week.

2) Severe storm chances increase into Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Today and tomorrow will feature a building ridge. Satellite only shows decaying clouds south of I-76, with the 12Z sounding only alluding to chances of some fair weather cumulus, with perhaps a shower/storm or two should the 700mb layer saturate and tap into elevated instability. All in all, this suggests temperatures should have no issue climbing today, with the hottest hours from 2p-6p. HRRR 50th percentile shows low-to-mid 80s for most, with upper 70s in higher elevations and north of I-80. THE NBM forecast was lowered to match this. Towards the high end of the distribution, temperatures could climb into the upper 80s, particularly for urbanized and/or valley locations.

Monday, and perhaps Tuesday, will likely be the hottest days of the week. Monday, little cloud cover makes heat more likely, while uncertainty increases Tuesday with uncertainties in convective cloud coverage. A non-BC ensemble, like LREF, shows high temperatures in the lower terrain south of I-80 could peak in the upper 80s, with generally lower 80s favored for the high terrain and north of I-80 (50th percentile). In the worst case scenario, urbanized valley locations could break the 90F mark for highs each day. The current forecast is within 3F of record highs for Morgantown, New Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Zanesville on May 18th. Correspondingly, record max lows will be challenged Monday and Tuesday morning for most climate sites.

The NWS heat risk shows mostly a moderate risk Monday into Tuesday, whereby heat may generally impact the most sensitive populations. Make sure to stay hydrated or monitor for signs of heat illness if spending excessive time outdoors.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Monday will carry non-zero, conditional severe chances, mostly for the high terrain. In the low probability event that ridge- top convergence is enough to overcome ridging, DCAPE as high as 800 to 1000 may would be enough to pose a downburst wind threat, though with flow aloft pushing northeast, any terrain- inspired storms would likely flow out of the area, in the low probability event they occur.

Tuesday has consistently shown the highest severe risk as the ridge begins to breakdown. In this pattern, the highest chances of any storms would come in a pre-frontal trough which accelerates into a higher DCAPE environment, posing mostly downburst wind threats within storms. CIPS, CSU ML, SPC, and various other NCAR ML models generally spread the highest threat over the northwestern half of the warning area (the portion of the warm sector closest to the advancing mid-west cold front).

Most ensembles actually have the cold front across the middle of the area Wednesday morning, so severe chances will mainly be ahead of the front in the southeastern part of the area on Wednesday, should the environment have enough time to destabilize before moving through. This threat is more conditional that Tuesday. CIPS, SPC, and ML agree that severe chances Thursday and beyond remain quite low with the return of cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR prevails throughout the next 24 hours. A fair weather cu field is developing across the region this afternoon due to plentiful sunshine and daytime heating/mixing. While there remains a low chance for an isolated shower or two, probability of impacts at any given terminal are too low to warrant continuing a mention in TAFs, so opted to remove mention with the 18z cycle. The cu field should dissipate around sunset, giving way to mostly passing high clouds tonight into Monday.

Winds are generally light this afternoon, around 5-10 knots out of the west-southwest. These will decrease overnight, then return to around 10 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon on Monday while remaining out of the southwest.

Outlook...
VFR is favored with dry conditions through Tuesday before an approaching shortwave and surface low increases precipitation chances (with lagging restriction impacts) Tuesday night into Wednesday. VFR returns late Wednesday behind a frontal passage, which shifts precipitation chances to our south where they remain through at least Thursday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.