Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leonardo, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday July 11, 2020 1:46 PM EDT (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 11:54AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1000 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. Showers and tstms likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1000 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. The remnants of fay will continue to move up the hudson river valley today, with a weak front cold approaching this afternoon in its wake. A series of weak fronts will cross the area through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leonardo CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 111503 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1103 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. Post Tropical Cyclone Fay will continue to move northward and through the mid Hudson Valley this morning, and into southeast Canada later today. A cold front will cross the region tonight remaining just offshore through the weekend. Low pressure will form along the boundary to our south and move through the region on Monday, dragging a cold front through Monday night. High pressure will return for the mid week period.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The main update so far today has been to add a chance of showers to southern portions of Delaware, southern portions of the eastern shore of Maryland, and southern portions of New Jersey for this morning and into the early afternoon. A short wave/vorticity impulse coming in from the southwest this morning has combined with some moisture to create an area of showers that will spread northeastward through the morning into the early afternoon. These should mostly be light showers, although a rumble of thunder is possible.

The main activity for the rest of the day is expected to be this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the area. As Post Tropical Cyclone Fay lifts northward into southeast Canada today, another low pressure will lift across the eastern Great Lakes region and western New York, eventually pulling a cold front across the Mid Atlantic region. Ahead of the cold front, very instability will build through today with CAPE values reaching at least 1,000-2,000 J/kg, approaching 2,000-3,000 J/kg for some areas. Shear is not very strong, only around 20-25 knots due to mid level winds of only 25-35 knots. Mid level lapse rates are not very steep, 6.0 or less, and wet-bulb 0 heights are not very low, although they may lower slightly as storms move through. So severe hail is not a significant threat, although there could be some small hail with strongest storms. The main threat with any strong to severe storms would be damaging winds. DCAPE is around 1,000-2,000 J/kg, and with some dry air in the mid levels, this could locally enhance any downdrafts. The strongest part of the advancing short wave is expected to pass to our north, but enough of the short wave should impact our area for showers and thunderstorms to impact at least eastern Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey this afternoon.

This evening, convection will come to an end as day time heating is lost and as the upper level wave heads towards NY. In the wake of the wave a weak cool front will cross the zones with dewpoints slowly falling off into the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. On Sunday behind the wave that brought the showers and thunderstorms to the area Saturday, PWATs will fall below 1.00". Dewpoints will also fall off towards the lower to mid 60s Sunday afternoon. This break will be short lived though as another shortwave quickly migrates through the base of the longwave through axis. The wave doesn't look to arrive though until early Monday morning, which will likely keep most of the day Sunday dry. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cold front located off the coast will weaken and actually push back towards the coast as low pressure starts to develop to our south. The low will move up through the Mid-Atlantic and across our area on Monday, with its attendant cold front pushing through Monday night. This could be a period of stormy weather as there is good energy pushing through the mid levels as the front moves through. Modest instability (CAPE values around 800-1200 J/kg) across the region should be enough in conjunction with the provided lift to help get some storms popping ahead of the front. There are some limitations though as the phasing is out of sync in some of the model guidance so coverage may not be as widespread or strong. Additionally, PWATs remain in the 1.0-2.0" range which once again means heavy rain may be an issue and with the rain we have already seen from Fay this past week we will need monitor the more susceptible areas. Things should end fairly quickly as we head into Monday night as the front moves through and we see some dry air seep in on the backside. Unfortunately, the air is not much cooler the dry air is limited so expect conditions to remain slightly muggy Monday night.

The low pulls off towards New England on Tuesday as the upper level trough swigs through during the day. Limited instability on Tuesday combined with the energy swinging through at the base of the upper trough may briefly allow some convection develop Tuesday afternoon. However, any convection will be diurnally driven and should taper off into the evening pretty quickly.

Ridging aloft and surface high pressure building down from the northeast will keep us dry for the most part on Wednesday and Thursday. With the high off to the northeast, the flow will turn more southerly across the region so dewpoints will remain in the 70s, so muggy conditions will continue through the end of the week. Diurnally driven convection will be possible each day.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . With the daytime mixing this morning, lower level clouds have developed, which will lead to a period of MVFR ceilings for the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon hours. As the day continues, the ceilings will lift to VFR by the afternoon.

Then afternoon thunderstorms (mainly 17z to 23z) are expected with localized sub-VFR are possible especially from PHL northward. Winds mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. High confidence in prevailing VFR, moderate confidence in timing and coverage of thunderstorms.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. West-southwest wind around 5 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. West-southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday Night . MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers. Patchy fog possible. Light south to southwest winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Patchy fog may linger into the morning hours. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday Night . Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible early. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Light west to northwest winds. Low confidence.

Tuesday through Wednesday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible. Westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday, becoming light and variable overnight into Wednesday. Low confidence.

MARINE. The pressure gradient will remain tight across the waters today allowing winds to gust to between 20 and 30 kts. Seas will also run 6 to 8 ft initially and slowly lower towards 5 ft. A small craft advisory has been issued until this evening to account for the elevated winds and seas.

Outlook . Sunday . Seas and winds will slowly relax as a weak cool front crosses the zones. Winds will be out of the west with seas 3 to 5 ft.

Monday through Wednesday . Sub-advisory conditions expected. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots on Monday, becoming west around 10 knots on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas on the ocean around 2 to 4 feet. A chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

Rip Currents . At least a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue today and Sunday. Breezy southerly winds should develop today, with seas remaining fairly elevated, especially through early afternoon. Conditions will be similar on Sunday, though likely with somewhat lower seas.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The overnight high tide has passed on the coast, and no minor flooding was observed at any of our forecast sites. This was likely a result of strong offshore flow developing a little earlier than forecast (and a slightly westward track versus that depicted 24 hours ago) combined with being in an unfavorable portion of the lunar cycle. No coastal flooding is expected on the Atlantic coast or on the tidal Delaware River and Delaware Bay through the weekend.

However, water remains trapped on upper portions of Barnegat Bay, and this may continue through much of today as flow becomes more southerly. With Mantoloking, Bay Shore, and Waretown all reporting minor flooding overnight, we have extended the coastal flood statement for these areas through at least mid-morning, with the possibility that further extensions will be required.

Another concern is that southerly flow may increase tidal levels on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. However, model guidance has not trended higher with forecast tidal levels, and OFS guidance (which tends to handle these regimes better) has performed fairly poorly so far for this area. This suggests that flooding is not very likely on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay this weekend. We will continue to monitor.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Haines/Robertson Short Term . Haines Long Term . Meola Aviation . Meola/O'Brien/Robertson Marine . CMS/Haines/Meola Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 4 mi53 min SSE 7 G 11 81°F 78°F1006.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 16 mi53 min S 14 G 15 78°F 1005.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 16 mi53 min 85°F 77°F1005.7 hPa
MHRN6 17 mi53 min S 6 G 11
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi37 min S 16 G 19 71°F1005.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi53 min 82°F 76°F1005.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 31 mi53 min SSW 13 G 14 80°F 1006.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi77 min SSW 3.9 G 7.8 79°F 75°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi53 min SW 8 G 11 83°F 80°F1006.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi47 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 80°F 1 ft74°F
44091 47 mi81 min 72°F6 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi37 min S 16 G 19 73°F 70°F1006.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ17 mi51 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast83°F80°F91%1006.2 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi56 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F75°F70%1005.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi56 minSSE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F82%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE8E10SE10SE8SE7E7SE6E5E5E5E3E5NE6E5E4E6NE7NE10E14
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S8SE9S7S7S4SW4S5S3S3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3S3W4S4CalmE8SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Highlands, Sandy Hook Bay, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:28 PM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 PM EDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.30.8-0.1-1-1.6-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.10.91.41.41.10.4-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.30.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.