Wednesday, September23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:53PM Wednesday September 23, 2020 2:46 PM EDT (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 11:23PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1244 Pm Edt Wed Sep 23 2020
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 1244 Pm Edt Wed Sep 23 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains centered to our south as it weakens and eventually moves offshore on Thursday. It then remains anchored across the western atlantic into the weekend. A weak cold front passes Thursday night into Friday. A stronger cold front approaches late in the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 231808 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 208 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slowly drift off the southeast coast through late this week into this coming weekend. A cold front looks to move through from west to east sometime late Sunday or Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. An expansive area of high pressure remains over the midwestern states extending towards the SE CONUS while Post-Tropical Storm Teddy continues to churn through Atlantic Canada. This is resulting in a continuing pressure gradient over the area keeping things a bit breezy but dry and sunny with the W/NW flow.

No big changes tonight as Teddy continues to move away to the north as it moves east of Labrador while ridging persists to our south and west. That said, the other player that will eventually impact our weather is the remnants of Beta which is currently near the Gulf Coast. Late tonight, some high level moisture streaming north well in advance of it looks to bring some increasing high cloudiness in. The trend of warmer overnight lows will also continue with tonight being warmer than last night. Expect lows mainly in the 50s except low 60s in parts of the urban corridor around Philly.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. For Thursday, surface ridging over the SE CONUS weakens as the center of high pressure moves off the SE coast into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile in the upper levels the energy aloft associated with Beta will start to get sheared apart as it enters a jet streak over the east coast ahead of an upper trough centered near the midwest. This will allow high cloudiness to lower and thicken through the day as moisture continues to advance north in these levels but there still should be at least some sun visible through the clouds at least through the first part of the day. Also, it will remain dry in the lowest 10 to 15 k ft due to the influence of residual surface ridging over the area so expect the day to remain rain free. Highs will once again be mainly in the middle to upper 70s with dew points in the 50s so still not too humid.

Nothing changes too much for Thursday night though we will have to watch as the northern edge of deeper layer moisture from Beta makes its way closer to the area. Expect it to still stay dry through the period for our CWA though so we keep POPs below 15 percent.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The medium-range forecast looks fairly active, as the pattern transitions to a western-ridge/eastern-trough configuration by early next week. As large-scale trough amplification occurs Sunday and Monday in vicinity of the Midwest/Great Lakes, a series of surface cyclones will develop with attendant cold fronts. The timing/strength of these fronts is the primary forecast challenge for our region.

Saturday's forecast remains muddled owing to the track of Beta's remnants, but currently expect chances for PoPs to be fairly low by Saturday afternoon and night. Highs and lows should be near to slightly above average.

In general, the synoptic evolution from Sunday through Tuesday looks fairly straightforward. The first potent vort max will dig into the Great Lakes on Sunday before lifting northeastward via downstream ridge amplification on Monday. A surface low will strengthen in advance of the trough in vicinity of the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday and Sunday night, with a cold front progged to move through the Northeast by Monday. Generally have chance PoPs for the area Sunday afternoon through Monday, and have also included a slight chance of thunderstorms owing to a pronounced improvement in low-to-midlevel lapse rates via strong synoptic ascent in advance of the trough. However, coverage and timing of precipitation remain unclear, given some pronounced differences among the deterministic models. The ECMWF may be on the slow side, given its tendency to amplify these systems too much.

A brief dry period is likely before the second and stronger system digs into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Rapid cyclogenesis will occur in this vicinity, with a strong cold front likely to approach the region by Tuesday night or Wednesday as the large- scale trough acquires a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This system will bring our first chance of rather widespread convection with potential for decent QPF in a long while to the area. After a period of lower PoPs Monday night and Tuesday morning, increased probabilities return Tuesday afternoon onward.

Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be near to slightly above seasonal averages.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight . VFR. West to northwest winds around 10 knots with gusts 15 to 20 knots at times this afternoon. Winds diminishearly this evening becoming light and variable by the overnight period. High confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night . VFR with mainly light west to southwest winds at speeds of 5 to 8 knots or less. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday through Saturday . Low-confidence forecast, with the remnants of Beta moving through portions of the eastern U.S. It is possible some precipitation associated with the system moves into the area during this time frame, with the best chances south of PHL. Should this occur, periods of sub-VFR are probable in proximity to the precipitation. However, if the system moves farther south of the area, mainly VFR and dry conditions would occur. Winds are generally expected to be light and mainly from a southerly direction.

Saturday night and Sunday . Mainly VFR, but some restrictions possible with a chance of showers, especially on Sunday. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt (lighter at night). Low confidence on potential for restrictions.

MARINE. We've cancelled the SCA for our northern 2 Atlantic Waters zones as seas have diminished. Elsewhere for the Atlantic waters, seas still hovering around 5 to 7 feet so SCA remains in effect until 8 PM this evening.

For Delaware Bay, sub-advisory conditions are expected through tonight.

All marine zones expected to see sub Small Craft Advisory conditions for Thursday and Thursday night.

Outlook .

Friday through Sunday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. Periodic chances for showers Friday through Sunday.

Rip currents .

A high risk of rip currents remains on the Atlantic beaches of New Jersey and Delaware today, as a very long-period swell continues. With seas subsiding, we expect the rip- current risk will lower to the moderate category on Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Models have generally been forecasting tidal levels too low the past several hours. Surge has increased from Teddy churning well northeast of the area, and models suggest the surge will peak later this morning. High tide is during the early afternoon, and it is the higher of the two daily cycles. ETSS and Stevens Institute ensemble data support widespread minor flooding on the Atlantic coast during the high tide today.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 6 pm for the Atlantic coast, including associated back bays and the southern shore of Raritan Bay.

For Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, confidence is lower in tidal levels reaching advisory thresholds. However, some guidance is quite aggressive in generating a surge up into the tidal Delaware River this afternoon. For now, think this is overdone, but we will be we are watching observations closely to determine if the more aggressive solutions are on to something.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE . High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003- 004. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ452>455.

Synopsis . CMS/Fitzsimmons Near Term . Fitzsimmons Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/Fitzsimmons Marine . CMS/Fitzsimmons Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 14 mi47 min WNW 17 G 23
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi47 min WNW 15 G 17 71°F 1011.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi47 min 75°F 69°F1010.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi47 min WNW 23 G 25 76°F 1010 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi47 min 77°F 69°F1010.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi27 min W 14 G 18 68°F1009.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi47 min NNW 13 G 22 79°F 65°F1012.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi47 min N 16 G 20 74°F 1010.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi47 min WNW 9.7 G 18 75°F 56°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi71 min NW 6 G 9.9 77°F 68°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi56 minWNW 13 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds80°F52°F38%1010.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi51 minW 16 G 2210.00 miFair79°F54°F42%1011.4 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi54 minVar 4 G 1510.00 miFair80°F54°F41%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE5N7NE5N10N8NE6N7N4NW5NE7NE5N6N6N3NW3CalmCalmN6N5NW7N9NW11N10N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:19 AM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:50 PM EDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.154.231.910.50.61.32.53.855.865.54.43.121.10.60.71.42.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:24 AM EDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:18 AM EDT     1.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:51 PM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.3-0.4-1-1.5-1.4-0.9-0.40.211.71.51.10.60-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.9-0.40.41.31.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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