Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

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Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:58 AM EDT (12:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 621 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 621 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary remains stalled to the south of the region with high pressure to the northeast. A trough of low pressure will develop to the west on Sunday followed by a weak cold front Monday night. This boundary dissipates over the area on Tuesday, although another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171012
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
612 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A weak stationary front will remain stalled to the south of our area
through the early portion of next week. High pressure to our NE will
continue to slowly move offshore today while an area of low pressure
passes to our NW on Sunday. A bermuda high will build east of the
carolina coast into the middle of next week. A cold front will then
approach the region Wednesday into Thursday, with high pressure
building in it's wake on Friday.

Near term through tonight
Today we expect to see the transition from the onshore easterly
flow regime to a southerly return flow regime as the bermuda
high develops. In addition to the shifting low level flow, we
will also be watching a mid level short wave trough which should
cross from the great lakes region into new england today.

Expect most of the convective activity with this trough to be
north and west of our region. However, if a qlcs develops, the
southern poconos and northwest nj could be on the southern
fringe of that risk area. Additionally, we could see isolated
and scattered showers and storms ahead of the trough, as there
could be some weak surface convergence with orographic effects.

As for thunderstorm hazards, if the qlcs scenario develops, than
the risk for strong winds associated with that could extend into
the southern poconos and northwest nj. Otherwise, the risk is
relatively low. Wind speed, and consequently wind shear, is
rather weak in the boundary and mixed layer. However, with
still relatively dry air above 800 mb, can't rule out some mid
level dry air entrainment leading to downburst gusty winds.

Temperature wise, we won't see the full effects of the southerly
return flow today since it isn't expected to develop until this
afternoon. Highs are expected to be in the 80s across most of the
area which is near or just a few degrees higher than Friday's highs.

Heat index values will likely get into the mid 90s for DELMARVA and
portions of the 95 urban corridor, but should stay well below heat
advisory criteria today.

Short term Sunday
The first round of showers and thunderstorms should dissipate
as the short wave trough lifts further northeast through the
evening. There could be a second round of showers and
thunderstorms associated with an MCV (associated with the
Saturday morning convective complex over ks mo il). However, as
with the first round, it appears that if there is a second
round, it will be mostly north and west of our area. Though the
low level flow regime will have changed by tonight, we will
have another risk for patchy fog to develop as clearing skies
should allow radiational cooling leading to low dew point
depressions. For most of the area, overnight temperatures will
stay above 70 overnight.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Synoptic overview: southwesterly-westerly flow will prevail at
the mid- lvls through Wednesday as the area resides along the
nw N periphery of the mid-lvl subtropical ridge. Various low-
amplitude, but potentially convectively-enhanced, disturbances
will clip the NW part of our forecast area Sunday-Tuesday as the
overall storm track remains just to our nw. At the surface the
stationary front looks to remain stalled south of the area with
its attendant waves generally tracking east of the area. The
bermuda high noses slightly westward toward the beginning of
next week with warm and moist low-lvl southerly southwesterly
flow developing in response.

By Wednesday a longwave trough over canada will begin to
amplify and the associated low-lvl cold front will likely
pass through the area Thursday. Finally milder and drier air
filters into the region Friday Saturday as high pressure builds
briefly over the area.

Dailies:
Sunday: guidance has trended a bit cooler on Sunday and
consequently generally have highs "only" toping out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices generally in the low to
mid 90s. The precipitation forecast is a bit challenging as
guidance indicates a (likely convectively- enhanced) shortwave
moving over the NW half of our area. Lift associated with this
feature combined with an unstable airmass (mlcapes generally in
the 1500-2500 j kg range) should be sufficient to generate
at least scattered thunderstorms. Consequently bumped pops in
the Sunday afternoon time frame, and can't rule out some heavy
rain and stronger storms (although shear will be lower than
previous days). Do think for example the nam's 3+ inches of qpf
are a bit overdone though.

Monday: should see less cloud cover and lower storm chances
Monday (although given persistent instability can't rule them
out) with temperatures increasing a few degrees relative to
Sunday. Currently have heat indices holding slightly below
advisory criteria (for the urban corridor) but it will be a
close call.

Tuesday Wednesday: Tuesday will likely be about as warm Monday,
with precipitation chances increasing as another low-amplitude
wave approaches the area. Given pwats around 2 inches and cape
values AOA 1500 j kg some strong storms and or locally heavy
rainfall will be possible (although shear remains modest).

Wednesday remains warm and muggy with storm chances remaining
elevated as the cold front approaches. Naturally storms could be
strong approaching the pattern transition, but details
regarding frontal timing are still too nebulous to hypothesize
on severe-potential at this time.

Thursday: the front likely moves through the area on Thursday
with some guidance hinting at two potential frontal passages; a
weaker one passing through the area late Wednesday into early
Thursday and a stronger one Thursday pm. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler with instability storm chances also decreasing
somewhat, especially over the north, as the airmass dries
behind the front.

Friday: Friday looks pleasant behind the front with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints potentially falling
into the 50s. Dry conditions prevail as high pressures builds
in from the west.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This morning... Low clouds and patchy fog is expected to gradually
dissipate between 11 and 16z, with all sites returning toVFR by at
least 18z. Winds may start light and variable, but should mostly be
easterly and southeasterly below 10 kt through the morning.

This afternoon... Isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible, primarily between 16 and 02z. The highest risk looks
to be at krdg and kabe, where a prob30 has been included in the tafs
for this potential. At the other TAF sites, confidence is too low to
include in the tafs at this time. Although winds should stay light
(less than 10 kt), expect the direction to gradually shift from
easterly to southerly through the afternoon.

Tonight... Once showers and storms dissipate, expect mostlyVFR
conditions. After 06z, patchy fog could develop. Where fog develops
tonight could be very dependent on which areas see rain today, so
haven't included a mention in the tafs at this time. Light southerly
winds are expected overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR, with lower restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Southerly-southwesterly
winds to 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...VFR with restrictions likely in the late afternoon
and evening with showers and thunderstorms developing.

Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots, gusting to 15 knots.

Marine
Winds and seas should stay below small craft advisory conditions
today and tonight. Patchy near shore fog is possible through mid
morning this morning.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday... Sub-sca conditions expected. Southerly
winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday... Sub-sca conditions expected. Southerly winds 10 to 15
knots and gusts to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday... Sub-sca conditions expected, however southwesterly
winds may gust over 20 kts at times. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Rip currents...

onshore flow is expected to continue for at least the first half of
the day, and seas will remain near 3 feet. Therefore, the moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents will continue on
the nj shore and at the delaware beaches through this evening.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr johnson
marine... Carr johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi59 min E 6 G 8 75°F 75°F1016.5 hPa (+0.3)
MHRN6 14 mi59 min ENE 6 G 7
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi65 min 76°F 75°F1016.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi59 min ENE 8 G 8 74°F 1016.2 hPa (+0.0)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi59 min 75°F 73°F1016.5 hPa (+0.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi39 min NE 9.7 G 12 72°F 74°F1016 hPa72°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi59 min S 1 G 2.9 78°F 78°F1016.7 hPa (+0.3)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi59 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 73°F1017.3 hPa (+0.4)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi83 min Calm G 1.9 75°F 79°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi68 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F88%1016.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi63 minENE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1016.8 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi66 minno data6.00 miFog/Mist75°F71°F88%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE55S6S544E7S8SE9S5SE9SE64SE4E5SE5E4SE4SE3SE3CalmCalm4E3
1 day agoN8E7E83SE8SE7SE9SE7SE116SE9SE53E5SE74E54SE6CalmNE5N5N44
2 days agoN7NE7E5E53SE8CalmSE8SE4SE3NE3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmSE3E5CalmE4NE3NE5NE5NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
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Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:15 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:17 PM EDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.12.71.50.500.41.52.844.85.24.94.131.910.60.81.73.14.35.25.75.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
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Sat -- 12:54 AM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:12 PM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:57 PM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.6-1.4-1-0.50.61.61.91.40.70.1-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.50.31.521.50.80.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.