Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:32PM Friday December 6, 2019 3:28 PM EST (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 2:15AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 107 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt early, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Isolated showers late.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ300 107 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches from the great lakes this afternoon and passes through the waters this evening. High pressure will build in through Saturday and then offshore on Sunday. A complex frontal system will impact the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 062001 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 301 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure across New England this evening will cause a cold front to cross the Middle Atlantic region. A large area of high pressure from the Great Lakes will build across the area this weekend. Once the high moves away early next week, a series of low pressure systems and fronts will affect the area into the middle of the week. More high pressure with cold air arrives for later next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Cold front is now progressing through PA as the mid and upper level short wave trough digs closer to the region. A few showers continue to be possible late this afternoon into early this evening. Aside from the Poconos, where some snow may mix with rain, for most of the region if we see any precipitation, it should be all rain.

As the cold front crosses our region this evening, expect an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds and a brief period of breezy conditions behind the front. Much of the guidance shows winds staying relatively light even behind the front, but expect that the guidance is a bit too fast in showing the development of the nocturnal inversion in the higher elevations of NW NJ and the Poconos. Thus gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be possible in these locations through the evening. Additionally, this is a prime setup for gusty winds on the waters, so coastal locations, and especially locations near the mouth of the Delaware Bay could see wind gusts to 30 mph through the evening.

Will likely see cold air advection for much of the night. Thus, expect lows to be slightly lower than this morning, with lows in the 20s (with the exception of Philly and portions of Delmarva where lows could be right around 30).

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/. High pressure begins to build in leading to decreasing, but still persistent northwest flow and cold air advection. With the large scale subsidence, should have dry weather and few clouds through the day. Temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 30s and lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Saturday night and Sunday will feature nice weather as large high pressure across the region Sunday morning will move offshore Sunday night. Temperatures will be close to average Sunday afternoon after a cold morning. Highs will reach the low/mid 40s across the north and central areas while upper 40s and low 50s will be across the metro areas and Delmarva.

Low pressure will advance towards the area early next week. A stream of moisture will develop over the area Sunday night and persist through Monday and beyond. Frequent clouds and rains will be found across the region. The rains and poor weather will continue into Tuesday. It will become unseasonably mild, especially Tuesday when highs will be in the 50s north/west and low 60s for Delmarva and south NJ. QPF for the period could be in the 1 to 2 inch range, so the possibility of some localized poor drainage flooding can't be ruled out. Also, if temps do not warm quick enough across the north/west areas Sunday night, a little snow at the onset is possible.

As the system moves away Tuesday night and Wednesday, colder air will arrive from the N/W. P-type could become an issue again with the rains possibly changing to snow before ending. We'll have to watch this with the possibility for some accums across the Poconos and north NJ. (other areas possible too). Temps will drop back through the 40s Wed and 30s Wed night.

The end of next week will feature dry, but cold weather. Highs Thu will be well below normal with 30s regionwide, some moderation possible Fri. Another system may approach for next weekend with more rains/snows possible.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mostly VFR conditions expected. Isolated showers are possible through early evening, but the coverage will be very limited and any impact will be brief, so have kept mention out of the TAFs for now. Southwesterly winds now will abruptly shift to northwesterly between 00 and 05Z. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . VFR conditions expected with few clouds. Northwesterly winds mostly at or below 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday night-Sunday . VFR expected. Increasing clouds Sunday.

Sunday night thru Wednesday . Widespread IFR expected with LIFR also possible at times. Rains, low clouds and fog much of the time. Gusty winds expected, especially near the coast.

MARINE. Gale conditions are expected in the vicinity of Sandy Hook through late this evening, so have issued a gale warning for the coastal waters adjacent to Monmouth County. Otherwise, expect breezy southwesterly winds through early this evening, with SCA conditions expected on the rest of the Atlantic coastal waters. On the Delaware Bay, gusts near 20 kt are expected.

Then this evening, a cold front will bring an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds resulting in SCA conditions on the lower Delaware Bay and most of the Atlantic coastal waters, with gales still possible for the Monmouth County coastal waters.

Winds should diminish quickly near sunrise, and during the day tomorrow, winds and seas should stay below SCA.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday night-Sunday night . Sub-SCA. Fair thru Sunday than rains developing Sun night.

Monday-Wednesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely with Gales possible. Rain and fog much of the time.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ451>455. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431.

Synopsis . O'Hara Near Term . Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . Johnson/O'Hara Marine . Johnson/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 14 mi59 min SW 11 G 17
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi59 min SW 15 G 20 48°F 41°F1015.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi59 min 49°F 45°F1014.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi59 min SW 13 G 18 49°F 1014.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi59 min 47°F 45°F1014.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi39 min SSW 23 G 29 48°F 49°F6 ft1015.2 hPa40°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi59 min WSW 8 G 12 49°F 39°F1015.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi59 min WSW 13 G 16 47°F 43°F1014.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi59 min S 9.7 G 14 44°F 32°F33°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi53 min WSW 8 G 9.9 49°F 39°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi38 minSSW 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast50°F27°F41%1014.1 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi33 minSSW 1110.00 miOvercast49°F30°F50%1015.5 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi36 minSW 6 G 1710.00 miLight Rain48°F27°F44%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:15 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:21 AM EST     4.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:47 AM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:35 PM EST     4.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.43.344.44.43.83.12.41.71.211.42.33.13.94.34.43.93.12.21.40.70.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:15 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:06 AM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:17 PM EST     1.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:36 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:36 PM EST     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:19 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.30.90.3-0.4-1-1.2-1-0.8-0.6-00.81.41.30.90.4-0.3-0.9-1.2-1.2-1-0.7-0.20.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.