Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:27PM Sunday April 5, 2020 3:17 PM EDT (19:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:33PMMoonset 5:29AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1245 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ300 1245 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front to the west today will work across the area this evening. High pressure will then build across the area through Monday night. A series of low pressure systems may impact the area Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will return for the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 051420 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1020 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today before a weak cold front crosses the area this afternoon. High pressure returns for Monday while a disturbance will bring unsettled conditions for the middle of the upcoming week. Another low and its fronts should begin to impact the region towards the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A flattening H5 ridge will crest the area today while a weak surface trough (extending from a primary low center in northern Quebec) will slowly push towards the area. This setup will result in a dry day, with noticeably warmer temperatures as W/SW flow prevails ahead of the aforementioned trough. High temperatures will generally run in the mid 60s with upper 60s possible in spots.

Cloud cover will be somewhat tricky as multiple cloud types will likely be present at various times. First some stratus is currently lingering over portions of the area this morning as a weak shortwave dives down from the northwest. These clouds should thin out/push east as this feature passes later this morning, but cirrus will quickly overspread the area as the ridge axis passes. We will also see some diurnal mid-lvl cu develop in the afternoon. Given these factors went with a partly sunny forecast, but this may give way to partly cloudy conditions later in the afternoon as the cirrus moves out.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. A weak cold front will pass through the area late tonight, and this combined with a weak shortwave impulse will likely be sufficient to produce some light rain over portions of the area. Not an overly impressive dynamic setup by any means so kept PoPs only at Chc. lvls and limited QPF to a few hundredths. Drier air filtering in behind the cold front should push precip out by early Monday morning. Overnight lows will run in the mid to upper 40s, with mins tending to be colder in the north due to an earlier timing of frontal passage and scattering clouds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure builds during the day on Sunday as modest warm air advection begins. Upper level flow will be slightly northwest as a ridge builds into the region by Tuesday. Heading into the overnight hours Tuesday we'll see a shortwave track through the Great Lakes across PA and into the Mid-Altantic which will lead to increasing chances for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday night. With increasing dew points and mild temps the is the possibility for some of the showers to have embedded thunderstorms however I dont expect the thunderstorms to be that strong.

Behind that system we'll see another phased low pressure system take a similar track to the Tuesday night system that will bring a strong cold front through the region. The GFS and GEM switched places from last night so I used a GFS/EC blend for timing. We'll continue to monitor but as temperatures will drop back to normal Friday and then remain either normal or below into next weekend. Some higher elevation snow showers are possible next weekend.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR expected through the day with a mixture of mid (5-7k ft) and high clouds. Winds generally W/SW around 5-10kts. High confidence.

Tonight . Mostly VFR, although a brief period of MVFR may be possible early Monday morning. Some light rain showers will be possible overnight. Winds will likely be initially WSW or variable around 5 kts, but will then shift to the north 5-10 kts in the 06- 10Z timeframe. Moderate confidence on prevailing VFR, high confidence on winds.

Outlook .

Monday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest to west around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Generally VFR conditions expected. Light southwest winds less than 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Areas of MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers with isolated thunderstorms. Westerly winds 10 knots or less. Moderate confidence with low confidence on thunderstorms.

Thursday . Generally VFR with MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. The SCA for high seas remains in effect through 4 AM Monday morning. Seas in the 6-7 ft range this morning will gradually come down to 4- 5 ft by early Monday morning. SW winds will increase through the day becoming sustained 10-15 kts with gusts to 20kts by late this afternoon.

Outlook .

Monday thru Wednesday . Generally sub-SCA. Seas up to 3 feet with winds less than 15kts. Showers begin to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There was another round of localized minor tidal flooding this morning in New Jersey and Delaware, and up into the tidal Delaware River. Tidal departures are forecast to continue decreasing, so no additional issues are anticipated in those areas with two exceptions. Water is expected to remain trapped in Barnegat Bay in New Jersey, and in Little Assawoman Bay in southeastern Delaware into this afternoon due to the persistent long period easterly swell. As a result, we have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for those locations.

Water also remains trapped in Chesapeake Bay. It is forecast to result in some minor flooding with the high tide this afternoon into this evening along the upper eastern shore. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect there.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008- 012. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ015- 019-020. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.



Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Carr Short Term . Carr Long Term . Deal Aviation . Carr/Deal Marine . Carr/Deal Tides/Coastal Flooding . Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 14 mi48 min S 4.1 G 8.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi48 min SE 8 G 11 52°F 49°F1016.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi48 min 63°F 50°F1015.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi48 min S 12 G 13 53°F 1016 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi48 min 54°F 48°F1016.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi28 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 5 ft1016.8 hPa46°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi48 min W 7 G 11 63°F 51°F1016.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi48 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 54°F1016.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi48 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 32°F47°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi42 min WSW 5.1 G 12 63°F 50°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi27 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F46°F54%1015.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi22 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F44°F48%1016.4 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi25 minVar 410.00 miOvercast68°F44°F42%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SE5S63SE85SE4S4S5S5SW5SW5S4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE4CalmCalmE4SE9
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N11NE8NE11NE10NE9N5E435
2 days agoNW19
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Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:16 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:55 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.21.32.84.25.35.85.74.83.52.10.9-0-0.40.21.534.55.55.85.44.22.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:34 PM EDT     2.03 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:16 PM EDT     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.60.31.52.11.710.3-0.4-1-1.5-1.5-1.3-1-0.40.81.921.50.90.2-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.