Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurence Harbor, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated tide cycles persist resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding continuing for back bay areas in Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE.

2. A couple more rounds of frost impacts are expected both tonight and Sunday night where the growing season continues.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated tide cycles persist resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding continuing for back bay areas in Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE.

The remnants of Josephine have pulled away from the region as it's now over the Canadian Maritimes. However, elevated water levels persist, mainly in the back bay areas of Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, Delaware. The Coastal Flood Advisory for these counties remains in effect until 6 PM today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A couple more rounds of frost impacts are expected both tonight and Sunday night where the growing season continues.

Little change in the overall synoptic pattern is expected through tonight with strong surface high pressure essentially overhead. In fact, 500 mb temperatures are a touch cooler tonight but surface dew points are expected to be a couple of degrees higher tonight. Overall, this should result in low temperatures pretty similar to those observed earlier this morning with lows mainly in the 30s across the region, outside of coastal areas and southern DE. For this reason, have issued Frost Advisories for the entire region where the growing season remains active except for the coastal strip of NJ, Sussex County DE, and Talbot County, MD. Would not be surprised to see some areas dip into the upper 20s where the growing season remains active, more notably across the Pine Barrens of South Jersey, however, do not believe that enough coverage of sub- freezing temperatures will be met to prompt Freeze Warnings tonight in these areas.

Temperatures will then begin to moderate on Sunday before another round of frost is possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows around the region will mainly be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Depending on how tonight's frost advisories pan out will determine where frost advisories may be warranted on Sunday night...more details to come in future updates.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR/SKC. Light and variable winds, may settle out of the south in the afternoon but remain generally less than 5 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. Winds light and variable becoming calm at times. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR/SKC. Winds light and variable in the morning, settling out of the southwest around 3-5 kt in the afternoon.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisories from Little Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island have been cancelled as of 2 PM. There are no longer any marine headlines in effect.

Northeast winds will generally remain around 5-10 kt today with isolated gusts up to 15 kt possible. Winds will diminish this evening and settle out of the north around 5-10 kt. Winds on Sunday will then become northeasterly around 5-10 kt. Seas around 2-4 feet through Sunday. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night... Fair weather. No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...SCA conditions possible.
Northeast winds may occasionally gust up to 20-25 kt with seas building to around 5 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday...Fair weather. No marine headlines expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ012>023-027.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020- 026.
DE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001-002.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003- 004.
MD...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ012-015-020.
MARINE...None.