Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sayreville, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:38PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 1:40 AM EST (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:22AMMoonset 2:48PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1251 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from noon est today through this evening...
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of light rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt early. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1251 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front, approaching from the west, will move through the forecast waters overnight. A secondary cold front passes by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will then slowly build in through Friday, passing south this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sayreville , NJ
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location: 40.48, -74.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 190256 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 956 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move through to our north tonight through Wednesday dragging a cold front through the region. High pressure builds in behind the front and dominates through the weekend. The next low pressure system looks to affect the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. 9:30 pm update . Rain chances continue to dwindle as upper level forcing remains on the weaker side with this system. Increased the mention on patchy fog into the Poconos and Lehigh Valley as dew point depressions continue to drop. We should see improvements over the next few hours as winds turn northwesterly and drier air filters in behind the cold front.

6:30pm update . Adjusted temperature and dew points up a bit across the region given the residual warming from this afternoon's abundant sunshine. Easterly flow is advecting increased moisture over portions of northern and central NJ, thus added the mention for patchy fog for the next several hours. Nothing above advisory criteria is expected at this time, but some localized dense fog with visibilities below one mile is possible at times.

Previous discussion . Low pressure is forecast to move northeastward across southern Quebec tonight. The low is expected to pull a cold front through our region from northwest to southeast in the 10:00 pm to 2:00 am time frame.

Clouds will overspread our entire region this evening, as the cold front approaches. Rain showers will be on the increase, as well. Rainfall totals for this event will be rather light with most locations receiving a tenth of an inch or less.

Once the cold front passes off the coast, some clearing will begin to work its way down from the northwest late tonight. Low temperatures are anticipated to range from the upper 20s on the Pocono Plateau to near 40 in northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will begin to build into our region from the west on Wednesday. Any lingering cloud cover over northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey will drift to our southeast during the course of the morning.

A northwest wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 or 25 mph. High temperatures will likely be in the 40s, with readings not getting above the 30s in the elevated terrain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Expect generally quiet weather over the rest of this week heading into the weekend. Behind Wednesday's front, it will be fairly cold for Wednesday night and Thursday as cold high pressure builds south across the CONUS. Expect temperatures running a little below average. There is a system to our south that will have to be watched but indications are a fairly zonal flow will keep this system south of us as it makes its closest pass late Thursday into Thursday night. This will keep it mainly dry but with increasing cloud cover. The zonal flow breaks down as an upper level trough tracks through early Friday however, the high pressure system still remains over the area so this will keep conditions dry with mainly clear skies.

The dry weather continues through the weekend with the next potential system arriving early next week. Deterministic guidance still leaves a bit to be desired with regards to consistency in timing. However the general idea is that we will see a low pressure system bring some precipitation into the region mainly in the form of rain.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR conditions continue early this evening except RDG where some light rain and light fog is producing MVFR conditions. As a cold front moves across the area, light rain showers will increase across the area, temporarily leading lower ceilings and visibilities at times. Latest guidance indicates that all areas will only lower to MVFR, so we removed the IFR conditions from the ABE and RDG forecast. The cold front will slowly moves offshore late tonight and through daybreak Wednesday, and showers will end from west to east behind the front and all areas will return to VFR. Moderate to high confidence on overall conditions.

There is a warm front draped across portions of northeast Pennsylvania into central New Jersey this evening. This front will be slow to lift northward, before the cold front finally moves into the area. North of this boundary, winds are either light and variable or northeast around 5 knots. South of this warm front, winds are mostly south to southwest. Once the cold front moves across the area, winds will shift to the northwest and become gusty 15-20 knots. High confidence on winds.

Wednesday . VFR conditions will continue through the day Wednesday and lower clouds will lift through the day and give way to high level clouds. Winds will remain northwest and gusty 15-20 knots, before diminishing toward sunset. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday night through Saturday . VFR with NW winds generally 5-10 knots shifting to westerly on Saturday. High confidence.

Sunday . VFR with SW winds around 5 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. A southerly wind around 10 knots into this evening is forecast to shift to the northwest 10 to 15 knots with the arrival of a cold front after midnight. A northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots is expected for Wednesday.

A persistent easterly swell has resulted in the development of 4 to 6 foot waves on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware. The swell is forecast to be slow to subside, so we have extended the Small Craft Advisory until 6:00 am Wednesday and we have included our ocean waters off both Delaware and New Jersey. It appears as though the swells will subside enough on Wednesday morning to allow wave heights to diminish to 3 to 4 feet at that time.

Outlook .

Wednesday night through Thursday . Northwest winds continue behind a cold front with these winds becoming more northerly through Thursday. Speeds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas generally 2 to 4 feet or less.

Thursday night through Friday . SCA conditions possible for a time as northerly winds increase to around 20-25 knots later Thursday night into early Friday. Seas 1-3 feet Thursday night increasing to 2-4 feet Friday.

Friday night through Sunday . Sub SCA conditions expected but west winds may gust up to 20 knots through Saturday before diminishing by Sunday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Davis/Iovino Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Deal/Fitzsimmons Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Robertson Marine . Fitzsimmons/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 15 mi71 min WSW 6 G 7
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 16 mi53 min 42°F1016.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi53 min 41°F1016.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 20 mi53 min 1016.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi53 min 41°F1016.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi59 min 39°F1017.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi41 min WNW 5.8 G 9.7 43°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.0)43°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 39 mi65 min WNW 6 G 11 51°F 38°F1016.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi53 min 41°F1016.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 44 mi41 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 40°F 32°F40°F

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ19 mi1.8 hrsN 08.00 miOvercast43°F39°F89%1016 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi50 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast46°F42°F86%1016.3 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ22 mi66 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1016.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi45 minW 57.00 miOvercast46°F46°F100%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8E6E7E8NE5NE6NE4--E8E8E5NE6E6NE5E5N11N9N6N6NW4CalmW6W5W5
1 day agoCalmCalmW3CalmN5N7N9N4N8N7NW3W8NW3
G18
CalmN4NW5CalmS4NE7NE5NE4--E9NE7
2 days agoS8SW6SW8SW6SW6SW9SW8SW9SW8W9SW9W9W5W5W4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:12 AM EST     1.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:57 AM EST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:39 PM EST     1.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:47 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.61.51.10.5-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.60.61.41.51.20.80.2-0.4-0.9-1.1-1.1-1-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.