Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:31 PM   Moonset 2:34 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1124 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
Overnight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Showers likely late this evening, then chance of showers late. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1124 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 160615 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Continued moderate rain, with locally heavy rain, has pivoted northward into Southeastern Connecticut. This is where a bulk of the precipitation will continue for the remainder of the night and into the early morning hours. Low pressure remains positioned just south of Long Island and will spin without making much forward progress.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Some of the moderate to heavy rain as well as isolated thunderstorms could be ongoing Thursday morning, but should not continue into the afternoon. The low slowly pulls away, with lingering light rain chances across the whole area through the end of the day. Any isolated flood risk would be early in the morning. We stay locked under cloud cover with the persistent E/NE flow and highs will be in the low to mid 60s.

Ridging starts to build in aloft Thursday night as high pressure noses down from the northwest. The area will likely be dry by midnight Thursday night. Dry conditions expected through Friday, with some clearing over the eastern half of the area. Highs will be back in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*Key Points*

*An unsettled pattern for the weekend followed by drier weather early next week.

*Below normal temperatures to start the period with a gradual warm up to near or slightly above normal by mid next week.

There continues to be uncertainty in the evolution of key features in the long term. Mid- and upper ridging to the north of the area allows for a closed upper low to eject out of the Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. There are differences in the global models with respect to this feature in terms of magnitude and timing. One notable change with the available 12Z guidance is a trend further south with a bit later development of the surface low in association with the upper low. This would keep much of the weekend dry for the area under predominately easterly flow. The easterly flow would likely main cloudy conditions with cool temperatures with the surface low to the south Saturday through Sunday.

By Monday into Tuesday, model divergence continues as the more progressive EC takes the low to the northeast and out of the region while the GFS maintains a more cutoff solution and meanders the surface low off the NC coast. Weak ridging builds in thereafter, with a shortwave and low pressure system approaching from the west late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure just south of Long Island early this morning will initially be stationary before beginning to track slowly late this morning. The low will weaken and continue to track south through Thursday night, while high pressure builds in from the north.

Moderate to heavy rainfall impacting KGON and KBDR will lift north this morning with lingering drizzle and/or light rain for most of the terminals. KSWF may see a spotty shower but will be mainly dry. Looking for a persistence forecast the next 18-24h with ceilings generally MVFR for NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley, and IFR/MVFR for the eastern terminals.

N-NE winds early this morning will be strongest with G25-30kt along the coast and 20-25kt elsewhere. Winds will be slow to diminish through the day.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ceilings may vary between IFR and low end MVFR this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers, mainly Saturday night and Sunday. SE winds G15-20kt on Sunday.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Low pressure approaches the area this evening and meanders just south of the area tonight into early Thursday. Winds and seas will increase and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters tonight through Thursday and then lingering on the ocean waters through Thursday night. Gusts will peak around 30 kts for all waters, occasionally reaching 35 kts on the ocean waters.
Seas on the ocean waters will reach 7 to 10 ft with waves on the LI Sound reaching 3 to 4 ft. Gusts will taper off Thursday into Thursday night, with 5 ft seas lingering on the ocean through Friday potentially.

Sub SCA conditions are likely thereafter into Monday.

HYDROLOGY
Forecast rainfall totals have increased across eastern Long Island and southeastern CT. Moderate to heavy rain is expected overnight into early Thursday morning, resulting in 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Any higher amounts are expected to be very isolated at this time. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over these areas and isolated flash flooding can not be ruled out, especially over southeastern CT where the flash flood guidance is a but lower.

There are no hydrologic concerns from Thursday afternoon onward.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Princes Bay
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Wed -- 02:06 AM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:54 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:03 PM EDT     1.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Princes Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:00 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:31 AM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:35 PM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:42 PM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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