Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Brunswick, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 900 PM, quite the instability gradient across Delmarva with the instability decreasing rapidly northward. Convection continues to slowly approach our Delmarva zones from the west.
Elsewhere, it is dry. Stratus and fog however has developed across far southeast New Jersey closer the coast and this extends across Delaware Bay and coastal central and southern Delaware. The fog may expand further inland, with the stratus expansion more likely.

A weak front remains draped over the Mid-Atlantic. That front extends back to low pressure over the Midwest. That low will track on that front late tonight and will move off the Mid- Atlantic coast Saturday afternoon. A few weak disturbances will develop on that boundary ahead of the primary low as shortwave energy spins off ahead of that low, and this will result in periods of showers and cool conditions.

The bulk of showers/thunder will hold off until closer to midnight as the first weak low passes south of the region.
Showers with scattered thunderstorms will impact the area late tonight through Saturday morning. Mid-level instability will be minimal, so not expecting severe weather overnight. Locally heavy rain is possible from time to time, but the flooding threat is minimal as well.

There should be a break in the rainfall from around midday or so, and then another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon and evening with the passage of the primary low. With PWATs in the range of 1.7-2.0 inches, locally heavy rain resulting is minor flooding is possible, but the flash flood threat will be minimal.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s, and then highs on Saturday will range from the upper 60s to low 70s for much of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania, and then in the vicinity of the boundary, highs will be in the 70s and possibly around 80 in Delmarva.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The short term period through Monday will remain cloudy, showery, drizzly, and overall dreary with below normal temperatures. Overall, nothing of particular interest to note as far as impacts go with the convective activity in our region. That said, this is be a fairly low predictability period regarding any details of the timing and coverage of showers.

Quasi-zonal and relatively weak flow will prevail aloft through Sunday. A more pronounced shortwave trough looks to approach the area by Sunday night and Monday morning. At the surface, there does look to be a weak surface high across New England that may wedge itself southward Saturday night into Sunday, keeping things a tad drier for that time period. As the upper level shortwave arrives for Sunday into Monday, shower chances do increase then.

Temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to low-60s and they will not warm up much transitioning into Sunday, only getting into the mid 60s to around 70. Depending on how far south the front sinks too, temperatures could be another 5 to 10 degrees cooler than forecast thanks to the onshore flow. We can expect a near carbon- copy Sunday night and Monday as well.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Gradually improving conditions through midweek with our weekend frontal boundary finally moving offshore Tuesday. Another weak shortwave trough arrives late Tuesday, bringing a low-end chance for some precip, but overall low confidence. Weak southeast flow will help temperatures rebound slightly, back into the mid 70s to low 80s. Come Wednesday, we will see more influence from an offshore Bermuda High bringing southwest flow back into the region. Afternoon temperatures will jump back up into the 80s area-wide. Thursday will be even warmer with temperatures reaching the low-90s in spots. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible too with an approaching frontal boundary late Thursday. Behind the front, drier and seasonably warm Friday.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR then to IFR overnight.
MVFR to IFR ceilings develop quicker this evening at KILG to KMIV and perhaps KACY. LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out overnight especially at KMIV/KACY. MVFR or lower visibilities in showers/fog. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out especially toward morning and a PROB30 was included. East-northeast winds 5-10 knots, becoming light and variable any many of the terminals. Low confidence on the timing/details.

Saturday...IFR ceilings overall. MVFR visibilities in showers from time to time. A few thunderstorms possible in the morning and then again later in the afternoon, and a PROB30 was included.
East-northeast winds increasing to near 10 knots. Low confidence on the timing/details.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday night.. MVFR and IFR conditions prevailing. Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Easterly winds. Visibility restrictions likely at times.

Tuesday...Restrictions probable initially, though some improvement anticipated. Scattered showers or storms possible late.

Wednesday...VFR likely. Isolated showers and perhaps a storm remain possible.

MARINE
As of 900 PM, an area of stratus and fog is from south of Atlantic City to portions of the Delaware Beaches and into Delaware Bay. This may expand northward further. For now, issued a Dense Fog Advisory for these areas into Saturday morning.
This may need to be expanded northward and/or extended in time.

Otherwise, a front remains draped over the Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure rides along that front tonight and passes through the Mid- Atlantic waters on Saturday.

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. E-SE winds around 10 kt tonight, then E-NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

VSBY restrictions in showers and scattered thunderstorms later tonight through Saturday morning, then again Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions expected, though there is the potential for SCA conditions Sunday night through Monday. VSBY restrictions in showers, drizzle, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout this period. Areas of fog also possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Chances of showers/storms remain.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, weak southerly winds in the morning will transition to northeasterly in the afternoon and increase to around 10 mph. Breaking wave heights remain around 1-2 feet with a continued weak southeasterly swell around 1 foot at 9-10 seconds in length. Will maintain a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches given light winds and low breaking wave heights.

For Sunday, onshore flow strengthens with a 10-20 MPH NE wind.
Wave heights increase to around 2 to 3 feet or higher and with multiple swell groups in the surf zone, there will be a MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ009-010- 012>021-026-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 452>455.