Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Madaket, MA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Key Messages:

* Dry and cool tonight

* Patchy fog develops over parts of E MA and N RI

A weak shortwave will pass over the region tonight, but rain chances are expected to remain to our south. Another dry night expected for southern New England, except for some patchy fog possibly developing in some parts of eastern MA and northern RI.
The maritime high's influence continues, keeping winds light and generally east to ESE over the region overnight. Lows expected to be cool once again, primarily sitting in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Key Messages:

* Dry and a little warmer for Monday

Highs begin to recover a bit Monday, but the cooler airmass aloft will keep temperatures still a bit lower than normal for mid June. Deterministic guidance has 925 mb temperatures slightly increasing to around 15C, especially over the interior.
Continued easterly winds will keep the eastern coastal areas cooler again, but highs may still reach the upper 60s/low 70s.
Mid to upper 70s can be expected for the interior.

Monday night looks to be another quiet night, with winds shifting more southeasterly. Overnight lows will be on the same trend... low to mid 50s across southern New England. A chance some patchy fog could develop across the interior.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Messages:

* Seasonably cool temperatures on Tuesday, but a significant warm up is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday. Less hot Friday into the upcoming weekend.

* Outside of a few hit-or-miss showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, the next notable chance for rain will come sometime Thursday afternoon or evening with a robust cold front. Which could bring severe weather across the region.

* Seasonable and looking somewhat dry for next weekend.

One last cooler than normal day is anticipated on Tuesday, followed by summer warmth and humidity Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday will be the hottest day this week, 850mb warm to +18C to +20C! Mixing of the boundary layer wilds afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. In addition, dewpoint temperatures are elevated due southwest flow, not out of the question those exceed 70F. When dewpoints get above 70F this becomes "air you can wear". These conditions will help to fuel storms Thursday afternoon associated with a cold front. The cold front will knock down the heat and humidity Friday through the upcoming weekend, but should remain seasonable both Friday and Saturday with highs on either side of 80F. Sunday should begin the next warm up with highs inching back into the middle 80s. And there are signs the heat returns and stays longer well into the following week as global ensembles show modest probabilites for 90F.

As for rain chances, Tuesday and Wednesday, there are lower risks of shower activity, but majority of the time looks dry.
Late the week zonal flow becomes ridged in the west and trough in the east. A cold front approaches New England Thursday afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk.
While we are looking five days out there is already an area highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35 knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.
Friday into the upcoming weekend does look more dry, with potential shower activity on Sunday. But given this is a week out there is plenty of time for things to change.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Rest of Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

VFR with IFR primarily across eastern MA terminals. Highest confidence in continued MVFR to even LIFR over Cape and Island terminals until sunrise. Light ESE winds continue.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

IFR improving to MVFR/VFR through the morning. Light ENE winds veering ESE. Timing for improvements a bit uncertain, but more likely by the mid morning hours. Cape and Island terminals, along with PVD, may not reach VFR today.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

VFR becoming MVFR, with areas of IFR possible along the Cape and Islands. Light ESE winds becoming E along the South Coast, Cape and Islands. Light SE winds over the rest of the region.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in IFR timing.

Lower confidence in timing for vsby reductions tonight.
Otherwise, high confidence for rest of TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Monday Night...

Seas continue hover around 2-4 ft with ENE winds around 15 kts.
These calmer seas are expected to continue through Monday.
Winds remain below 10 kts over the eastern waters. Winds pick back up during the day Monday with sustained winds up to 15 kts possible once more.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.