Wednesday, November13, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:42PM Wednesday November 13, 2019 8:40 PM EST (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:43PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 556 Pm Est Wed Nov 13 2019
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 556 Pm Est Wed Nov 13 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from the west tonight, then moves offshore on Thursday as a weak warm front passes to the north. This will be followed by a cold front Friday night and high pressure this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg , NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 132326
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
626 pm est Wed nov 13 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore on Thursday as a weak warm front
passes to the north. This will be followed by a cold front
Friday night, and then high pressure for much of this weekend.

Low pressure will move east of the area Sunday night into
Monday, with another weaker coastal low pressure system
potentially passing to the east Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Dry weather tonight with a strengthening 1030 high building
over the region. A mid and high cloud shield continues to
progress east from the great lakes, upstate ny, and the
appalachians. This could limit slightly the radiational cooling
potential tonight. The forecast was not adjusted below guidance
as a result, despite the anomalous cold. Some record lows are
expected to be broken. If the cloud shield erodes sufficiently
and is not as thick as the GFS suggests, lows may be colder than
forecast. So far this evening high clouds have pressed east and
have entered parts of the region. This first wave of high
clouds, generally around 25 kft have thinned out for the most
part as they have progressed east over top of high pressure. The
next wave of high clouds will be likely be a touch more dense
for late this evening and into the first half of the overnight.

Will have to monitor this as this may have an impact on how low
temperatures get. The current minimum temperature forecast is a
touch aggressive when one considers that it will not be
completely clear. The feeling as of now is that the cloud cover
will be high enough and not thick enough overall to bump up
temps for later tonight. Wind speeds were adjusted downward for
late in the night as glamp winds appear to be matching obs the
best and tend to do better with lighter winds with high pressure
essentially overhead. Therefore have held off on any
significant adjustments upwards with temperatures for the
overnight.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Return flow develops during the day Thursday as the high builds
offshore. This will bring a warmer, moist flow into the region.

Shortwave energy embedded in the next approaching upper trough
may provide just enough lift to produce some pockets of light
rain, particularly Thursday night. A blend of the models was
used as a starting point for probabilities, which are still low
with the best chances remaining offshore. However, did manually
increase them Thursday night giving the NAM a bit more weight.

No ice crystals in the cloud layer per model time heights, but
surface temperatures could be a concern, especially if any
precipitation breaks out away from the immediate coasts late
Thursday night. Some light freezing rain has been included in
the forecast, but the probability in this area remains below 30
percent at this time. The nbm was followed closely for
temperatures with some minor adjustments.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
To begin the period on Friday a weakening cold front will slide
through the region. Friday should be mainly dry with near seasonable
temperatures. The more noticeable wind shift will occur behind the
front by Friday evening as this will serve to bring in another round
of unseasonably cold and dry air. This next round of below average
temperatures will not be as intense, nor last as long. This will be
primarily due to the core of the cold air passing by further north
this go around. Therefore this next cold airmass will be shallower
than the current cold air mass. Temperatures will still average
several degrees below average for Friday night into Saturday, but
record or near record cold is not expected for this next shot of
cold air.

The weekend will begin cold and dry with low dewpoints due to a
strong lower level polar air mass. Dry conditions with mainly clear
skies will be the rule on Saturday. A stiff northeast wind due to a
tightening pressure gradient will lead to wind chill values likely
remaining in the 20s through the day on Saturday. With the northeast
wind continuing Saturday night wind chill readings will run mainly
in the teens Saturday night, before wind chills climb into the lower
and middle 30s during the day on Sunday with the air mass modifying.

High level moisture will try to move up from the south by late
Saturday night into Sunday. A positively tilted trough in the
southern branch will then have to be watched for late in the weekend
and into early next week. The latest global models by and large are
further south initially Saturday night as the system emerges
off the southeast coast, and therefore further east later Sunday
and Sunday night as the system tries to turn the corner up the
coast. Not writing off this system completely in terms of giving
at least eastern sections some rain for Sunday night into
Monday. As temps warm, especially aloft any precipitation if it
occurs would be in the form of rain along the coast, and any
precipitation inland could start briefly as frozen but it is
doubtful as to how far north and west any precipitation would
get with a track off the coast, and possibly well off the coast.

With the latest 12z package being further east overall, and
made some cosmetic downward adjustments with pops but did not
pull out precipitation and rain chances all together. Based on
teleconnections and the 12z naefs the slightly more eastward
track appears to be the way to go for now.

The northern branch will then attempt to become somewhat more active
as to reform the trough in the east. Initially in the wake of the
previous southern branch system there may be a lack of lower and mid
level moisture despite cyclonic curvature aloft developing upstream.

Then much of the global guidance attempts to develop an offshore low
pressure system along with hints at a norlun trough impeding
coastal sections. Thought it prudent for the time being to keep
some chance of precipitation through Tuesday night before high
pressure builds in from the west and southwest into the mid week
period.

Due to the aforementioned pattern with the possibility of a
prolonged NE wind and an easterly swell developing for late in
the weekend and early next week minor coastal flooding for some
coastal locations cannot be ruled out. A mitigating factor
however is that tides will be running astronomically lower late
in the weekend and into early next week.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds tonight and moves offshore on Thursday as
a weak warm front passes to the north.

Vfr with mainly high clouds tonight. Winds will be light and
variable.

Vfr on Thursday, although ceilings of 3500-5000 ft may develop along
the coast during the morning and continuing into the afternoon.

Light winds early in the morning will become s-ssw under 10 kt
through the remainder of the day.

Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday
Thursday night-Friday MainlyVFR, although a few borderline
clouds 3-5 kft are possible along the coast Thursday night.

Friday night Vfr. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday-Sunday Vfr. N-ne gusts around 20-25 kt.

Monday MVFR or lower possible in rain wintry mix inland.

Ne wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Marine
Winds and seas will continue to subside this evening, and the
small craft advisory was canceled as a result. Winds and seas
will then remain below advisory levels through Thursday night
with high pressure over the region.

Sub SCA conditions are expected on the coastal waters through Friday.

Seas will then begin to build late Friday night into Saturday due to
a tightening pressure gradient and a developing increasing easterly
swell. SCA conditions are expected out on the ocean, and eventually
all the coastal waters due to increasing winds during Friday night.

With high pressure to the north and low pressure well to the south
on Saturday SCA conditions will continue with building ocean seas.

Wind gusts may reach gale criteria out on the ocean waters by
Saturday night and continue through the remainder of the weekend.

By Monday the pressure gradient relaxes and sub SCA conditions will
return to the non-ocean waters. Out on the ocean however, seas will
remain elevated as SCA conditions will continue mainly due to high
seas.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

Climate
Record minimum high temperatures for Wednesday november 13th
temp | year
nyc| 33 | 1911
jfk| 41 | 2013
lga| 39 | 1977
ewr| 41 | 2013
isp| 39 | 2013
bdr| 38 | 1995
record lows for Wednesday november 13th
temp | year
nyc| 24 | 1986
jfk| 25 | 1986
lga| 26 | 1986
ewr| 24 | 1986
isp| 24 | 2001
bdr| 23 | 1986

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) is operating
at reduced power until further notice.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term...

short term...

long term... Je
aviation... Pw
marine...

hydrology...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 8 mi53 min N 8 G 9.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi53 min 31°F 52°F1030.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi53 min NW 7 G 11 32°F 50°F1030.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi53 min N 8.9 G 11 31°F 1030.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi53 min 31°F 55°F1030.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi41 min NNE 7.8 G 12 35°F 56°F1030.4 hPa (+1.9)12°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi53 min N 8.9 G 12 32°F 52°F1030.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi56 min WNW 9.7 G 12 32°F 32°F13°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 42 mi56 min NNE 7.8 G 12 31°F 7°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi59 min N 1.9 G 2.9 31°F 45°F1031 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi50 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F6°F36%1030.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi50 minNNW 710.00 miFair30°F6°F36%1029.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi50 minN 810.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F7°F38%1030.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi50 minNNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds32°F9°F38%1030.1 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi50 minVar 410.00 miFair29°F7°F39%1030.1 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi56 minN 010.00 miClear23°F17°F80%1030.5 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair26°F10°F51%1030.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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1 day agoS5S4SE4S4S5S5SW83SW7SW13SW10W7NW14
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2 days agoS3W3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmE3S633SE5SE5E4SE5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
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Wed -- 02:10 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:56 AM EST     5.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:53 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:24 PM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.4-00.31.434.45.25.55.24.33.11.90.90.2-0.10.51.73.14.14.64.642.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:22 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     2.06 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:34 PM EST     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:24 PM EST     1.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2-1.7-1.1-0.30.71.72.11.81.20.2-0.9-1.7-2.1-2.2-1.7-1-0.20.81.51.51.10.4-0.6

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.