Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keansburg, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) The potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening.

2) High rip current risk for ocean beaches Sunday.

3) Minor coastal flooding for portions of the coast for the evening high tide cycles through Sunday evening/night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for the majority of the CWA, with a marginal risk across far eastern sections in the convective outlook for later Sunday. Forecast soundings are suggestive of some capping / convective inhibition in the lower portions of the mid levels. Instability is progged to decrease further northeast and east across the region, with moderate instability further west and southwest. One favorable aspect to convective chances is around storm organization as shear values would be sufficient and progged around 40 kt or thereabouts late in the day, and increasing further into the evening. However, with the aforementioned inhibition potential with a weak elevated warm front possibly existing in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front, convection and especially severe convection potential is quite conditional. If some updrafts can break through then there would be a strong to damaging wind threat with any storms as low level lapse rates are high and with LCLs slightly elevated there could be strong downdraft wind potential. At this point in time storm rotation and the best supercell potential appears to reside just south of the area. Will continue to monitor this for a potential shift further north into our area. At this time the potential for hail and localized flash flooding is marginal at best as storms are expected to move along, and the relatively higher mid- level lapse rate potential residing just west and southwest of the region. The timeframe for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity is from approximately from 4 pm to 10 pm as the cold front is expected to pass through from west to east around 12 am to 6 am Monday.

On a side note; though it will be quite warm to hot on Sunday, humidity levels are not forecast to be overly oppressive with dew point readings forecast to remain primarily in the lower half of the 60s. This should lead to heat indices below 95, and closer to 90 across the warmest locations. Thus heat headlines should not be needed for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A high rip current risk is in place for all ocean beaches for Sunday. For the more eastern ocean beaches the risk may be more on a moderate scale initially, but by the mid to late afternoon a S wind increasing should produce strong rip currents. Winds will increase out of the south at 15 to 20 kt for western beaches, and more like 10 to 15 kt out east. Surf heights look to peak at around 3 to 4 ft along with a lingering 6 to 8 second swell component out of the southeast. The risk should fall to a moderate level on Monday, however it is not out of the question that the high risk could linger into a portion of Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 3
The risk of brief minor coastal flooding for the more vulnerable locations of Fairfield CT, NE NJ, Staten Island, and some of the western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens has increased slightly for tonight. Any minor coastal flooding will likely become a little more common for the Sunday evening / night high tide. Any statements for SW CT, and So. Nassau have been upgraded to an advisory for tonight, with minor flooding even more likely now for Sunday night which now includes a good portion of NE NJ and Staten Island, and Queens where statements and advisories have been included. Also portions of Southeast Suffolk will approach minor flood benchmarks for Sunday night as well as Lower Westchester. With tides being astronomically high, minor coastal flood for some or most of these same locations could linger into Monday and Tuesday nights.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front approaches from the west on Sunday, passing through during the overnight.

Winds will be light SW or light and variable early this morning. Winds will then back to a more southerly flow after 12Z, increasing to 10 to 15kt G20-25kt. Held off on gusts at this time for KBDR and KGON as they don't look to mix deep enough for frequent gusts. KJFK may see gusts up to 30kt or at least a high sustained wind in the afternoon close to around 20 kt. This is due to an expected coastal jet forming just off the NJ coast. Wind gusts will be slow to diminish in the evening with some mixing expected ahead of convection along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will then veer to the W/WSW immediately behind the front and then NW toward daybreak Monday.

There could be a short period of SW LLWS just ahead of the cold front Sunday night. For the time, it has been kept out of the TAFs.

Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front are expected to impact the area terminals Sunday evening into Sunday night. Right now, the best chances will be between 00Z-06z for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals and bit later to the east. There is fair amount of uncertainty as to whether scattered convection develops well out ahead of the cold front during the late afternoon/early evening hours. In addition, while the convective models do vary in intensity with the line of showers and thunderstorms, some weakening is expected as it approaches the coastal terminals.

MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible in showers and thunderstorms.
There also could be a period of low clouds moving in off the ocean waters Sunday night, impacting KISP, KBDR, and KGON.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional than frequent Sunday afternoon, especially at KJFK.

Peak gusts to near 30kt possible.

Amendments will likely be needed to fine tune timing of TSRA.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions prevail tonight into mid morning on Sunday.
Towards midday and into the afternoon small craft conditions develop and should continue through about midnight as a southerly wind increases, and then conditions subside from west to east with all zones likely returning to sub advisory conditions by 6 am Monday.
Sub advisory conditions will continue Monday through Wednesday.
During the late afternoon hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday a few gusts may approach 20 kt, more so for the western ocean so a few brief periods of marginal small craft gusts cannot be ruled out, however mainly sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail.

CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 13: KEWR: 74/2005 KBDR: 71/2017 KNYC: 77/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 72/2017 KISP: 70/1969

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-179.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.