Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 8:48 PM   Moonset 6:09 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 615 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers early this evening.Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.Sat night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

ANZ300 615 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front pushes offshore tonight. Strong high pressure builds in later tonight through Friday and remains over the area into Saturday and will shift to the south Saturday night as low pressure moves northeast across the upper great lakes into canada and an associated warm front approaches. The front will lift through on Sunday but remain nearby to the east early next week. A cold front will approach on Tuesday, passing Wednesday morning.

FXUS61 KOKX 242218 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 618 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front pushes offshore tonight. Strong high pressure builds in later tonight through Friday and remains over the area into Saturday and will shift to the south Saturday night as low pressure moves northeast across the upper Great Lakes into Canada and an associated warm front approaches. The front will lift through on Sunday but remain nearby to the east early next week. A cold front will approach on Tuesday, passing Wednesday morning.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Minor changes were made to temperatures and dewpoints to account for current observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with most of the spotty showers having now exited the area.

Slight chance for showers this evening as a cold front pushes offshore. Thereafter, expect clearing and a much cooler airmass to enter the area with high pressure building in from the northwest. Winds will slowly diminish, especially across the interior. Because of this, temperatures will drop pretty quickly, especially thanks to how dry the air mass will be as dew points are expected to fall into the teens. Went on the lower side of guidance due to the abnormally cold nature of the air mass. Freeze Watches across portions of northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and inland southern CT have been converted to Freeze Warnings as confidence is high enough, especially given that NBM shows greater than 80% chance of seeing 32 degrees or less for lows across these areas. Frost does not look like a concern with a large dew point/temperature spread, but is perhaps possible in some very patchy areas.

Otherwise, dry and cold conditions for this time of year for the rest of the forecast area, with lows dropping into the 30s to around 40.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Dry and cool conditions continue for Thursday as the strong Canadian high pressure continues to build in from the northwest and an upper level trough sets up across the Northeast then pushes east later in the day. An upper level ridge over the mid-West amplifies and slowly heads east Thursday night through Saturday with the ridge axis just moving over the area late in the day Saturday into Saturday night.

As previously mentioned, cool conditions continue Thursday. Some modification in the air mass expected for Friday, but it should remain seasonably cool. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle to upper 50s, then upper 50s to lower 60s for Friday.

Slightly colder temperatures are expected Thursday night as compared to tonight with clear skies and calmer winds.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 20s across the interior and Pine Barrens of Long Island. Will have to monitor for potential of Frost Advisory/Freeze Watch for these areas with the subsequent forecast overnight tonight and tomorrow.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Not much has changed with regards to the long-term forecast. An omega block over the eastern CONUS will be a predominate feature through the weekend and early next week, with its western leg over the central states and multiple shortwaves lifting NE through the Plains states and upper Great Lakes, its eastern leg over the Canadian Maritimes and adjacent Atlantic, and an upper ridge over the East.

The first of the shortwaves lifting through the Plains and Great Lakes will send a warm front toward the area Sat night that should then lift through on Sunday, with low chance for showers mainly inland. A warming trend will then follow, with temps well above normal especially from the NYC metro area north/west, with highs well into the lower/mid 70s on Sunday and either side of 80 on Mon. Most of Long Island and SE CT should be cooler, with highs in the 60s, to low-70s on Mon, due to onshore flow and afternoon sea breezes, also some intrusion of cooler maritime air from the east depending on the position and intensity of low pressure developing well to the east over the Atlantic.

The omega block should start to break down on Tue, with the upper ridge weakening and a cold front approaching from the west, bringing the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms as moisture increases ahead of it, particularly as it moves through early on Wednesday. Temps on Tue should continue to be on the mild side, with highs in the 60s across much of S CT/Long Island, and in the 70s across the NYC metro area north/west and interior S CT.

Per NBM 50th/75th percentile forecasts, temps early next week have potential to be a few degrees warmer than fcst, possibly upper 70s to mid 80s on Mon, and mid 70s to lower 80s on Tue, depending on both the strength of the ridge and onshore flow.

AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front pushes offshore this evening. Strong high pressure will then build in tonight into Thursday.

Outside of a stray shower early this evening, it will be dry with VFR conditions.

Winds will continue to veer to the WNW-NW at 10-15kt G20-25 kt into early the evening, becoming N tonight and then NE early Thursday morning. Winds and gusts will diminish overnight with wind speeds around 10 kt or less by day break Thursday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts could become occasional or end 1-3 hours earlier tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon-Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance for showers with brief MVFR conditions Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The Coastal Waters Forecast with wave component details is operational.

With building high pressure, winds and gusts gradually diminish below advisory levels by late tonight. Ocean seas will remain elevated into Thursday morning, and then subside below 5 feet. A SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters until 1000 AM EDT Thursday. With a weak pressure gradient later Thursday through Friday night, with high pressure in control, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.

Quiet this weekend into early next week with winds/seas below advisory criteria. S-SW flow up to 15 kt after a warm frontal passage could briefly push ocean seas up to 4 ft late day Sunday into Sunday evening. Fog may also become possible Sunday night as more humid air traverses colder waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Relative humidity will be lowering to 30-35% early this evening behind a cold front, with west to northwest winds gusting as high as 25 MPH. With falling temperatures this evening relative humidity levels will then begin to increase. With the front, there will be little to no wetting rain. Elevated fire spread conditions may briefly be present for NE NJ, portions of the lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and western Long Island.

Minimum relative humidity will be in the upper teens to around 25 percent Thursday, however, winds will be under 10 MPH.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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Wed -- 10:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
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Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
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