Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New York, NY

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Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:31 PM EDT (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front, south of the waters overnight, will wash out. High pressure builds back into the area and will remain centered over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front passes through the area Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New York, NY
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location: 40.55, -73.89     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190309
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1109 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front south of the area will dissipate overnight.

The area will then come under the influence of the western
extent of the bermuda high through the weekend. A cold front
approaches and moves through Sunday night into Monday. High
pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through Friday
A few showers lingering showers across eastern long island and
se ct will push offshore overnight as a weak mid level
shortwave and weak surface wave offshore moves east.

There is some cooler and drier air working in on a light N ne
flow overnight behind the weak front, which should allow ne
sections of the tri-state to fall well down into the 60s.

Towards the nyc nj metro, it will be a warm, humid night, with
readings ranging in the lower and mid 70s.

Stratus is likely to remain stubborn overnight, with patchy fog
in the moist low-levels with strengthening low-level inversion.

Short term Friday night through 6 pm Friday
Forecast area will reside at the southern edge of the
westerlies with the potential for record warmth as we head into
the weekend. This will be the start of a heat wave for the
region following the cloud cover and showers that tempered the
temperatures on Thursday.

Deep-layered W flow and the westward expansion of the subtropical
high along the east coast will combine to keep the airmass very
humid with dew points into the lower and middle 70s on Friday.

This combined with highs in the lower and middle 90s from nyc
and points north and west will produce heat index values around
105 on Friday for the nyc metro, NE nj, and the lower hudson
valley. An excessive heat warning has been issued for these
areas. To the east, a developing onshore flow will keep
temperatures cooler, mainly in the upper 80s to near 90. Still
though, heat index values will range from mid 90s to around 100.

These locations are under a heat advisory. This will begin a
prolonged period of heat hazards for the region.

Some concern for strong to severe convection to work into
western portions of the tri-state region late Friday into Friday
evening. Will have to watch convective development across
eastern great lakes Friday morning in response to shortwave
energy working east from southern minnesota. Deep layer flow and
shear profiles are more favorable for organized convection
maintenance well to the north and west of the tri- state area
Friday afternoon, but if a strong enough cold pool can develop
with any organized convective activity, the low-level shear,
high instability and high moisture profile in the area look
favorable for maintenance for convective activity into western
portions of the tri- state. Main threat would be strong to
damaging winds. Some of the 12z cams are hinting at convection
dropping in from the NW during the late afternoon early evening
hours. Confidence is still low, but convective chances have been
increased to low chance for Friday evening based on the above
reasoning.

Otherwise... For Friday night, not much relief with temperatures
struggling to get into the 70s. Heat index values overnight may
get no lower than the mid to upper 80s for the nyc metro area.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Friday.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
The main concern for this period continues to be the high heat and
humidity that is expected to continue Saturday and Sunday thanks to
a bermuda high over the northern atlantic. 850 hpa temperature
anomalies of +2-+3c over the great lakes region will move over the
area through Sunday. 500 hpa heights over 5900 m also noted in
guidance for Saturday, with slightly less values for Sunday. This is
in line with climatology for a widespread heat wave to impact the
forecast area from Friday through Sunday. Much of the guidance
suggests highs well into the the 90s during this time frame, with
dew points well into the 70s.

Highs on Saturday will range form 95 to 100 degrees, with perhaps
isolated areas in northeast new jersey reaching a degree or two
above the century mark. Sunday will be slightly cooler, as heights
lower somewhat, but it will continue to be very hot and humid. There
is also a great deal of uncertainty with the temperatures for Sunday
due to uncertainty in cloud coverage from an approaching cold front
to the west. The ECMWF ensemble has a range of high temperatures
from 89 to 101 for central park.

Regardless, with anomalously high dew points in the middle to upper
70s in some cases, this translates to heat index values of 105 to
just over 110 for much of the forecast area (isolated portions of
northeast new jersey may see heat index values of 115) for Saturday.

Excessive heat watches have been converted to excessive heat
warnings for Saturday. With the potential for widespread heat index
values of 105-110 on Sunday, excessive heat warnings have been
issued for then as well. These temperatures and heat index values
are life threatening, please follow the preparedness precautionary
actions within our excessive heat warning products to prepare for
the upcoming heat.

Of additional concern are nighttime lows Saturday night into Sunday,
as lows are not forecast to dip below 80 in the new york city metro
area, with the lowest forecast heat index values during that time
frame in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

As for precipitation, thermal troughs developing will allow for just
a passing shower or thunderstorm for late Saturday into Saturday
night. An approaching cold front will bring a low end chance for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mainly for new york city
and points north and west. As for now, nothing indicating a
widespread severe event in the long term. Chances increase Sunday
night into Monday, with best chances for rain Monday afternoon as
the cold front remains just off shore. There may be lingering
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, mainly for southern portions
of the area. Temperatures will be cooler for Monday thanks to
increase cloudiness and rain, with lower humidity levels. More
seasonable conditions are expected for Tuesday through Thursday with
high pressure in control for the middle of the week.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
Prevailing NE flow expected most of tonight as low pressure
passes to the south, with MVFR ifr CIGS remaining steady or
gradually lowering to ifr lifr overnight, then gradually
improving toVFR after 12z-14z. Forecast uncertain for the late
night and early daylight hrs, as enough dry air may filter down
from the north then to bring about improvement earlier than
expected.

Winds as the low passes farther east should become more
northerly late tonight into the morning, then SW flow either
side of 10 kt expected, with some gusts 15-18 kt at kewr kteb,
and perhaps klga before the sea breeze arrives there late
afternoon.

An isold TSTM possible is from the nyc metros north west toward
fri evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi43 min E 6 G 8 71°F 74°F1013 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 12 mi43 min 73°F1012.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 12 mi43 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 72°F 1012.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi55 min 73°F 76°F1012.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi21 min NE 12 G 14 72°F 78°F1012.4 hPa71°F
MHRN6 16 mi49 min NE 8.9 G 11
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 19 mi49 min ESE 5.1 G 7 71°F 69°F1013.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 25 mi46 min ENE 12 G 16 70°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 33 mi46 min E 14 G 18 71°F 2 ft68°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi41 min ENE 16 G 18 71°F 74°F4 ft1012 hPa (+1.1)
44069 44 mi31 min NNE 9.7 G 16 71°F 82°F70°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi40 minENE 910.00 miOvercast72°F72°F100%1013 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY16 mi40 minNE 910.00 miOvercast73°F68°F84%1012.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY16 mi40 minNE 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1013 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi40 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast73°F70°F90%1012.9 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi40 minE 76.00 miFog/Mist73°F68°F84%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S5S10S9S5CalmCalmNE4NE4SE6SE8SE54S7E6SE8SE6S8N11N8NE10NE10NE9
1 day agoSW11SW9SW6SW6SW5S7S6S5SW6SW6S8SW8S9S10S12S16S15S15S14S15S17N21
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2 days agoSW11W4SW5CalmN5CalmN5CalmCalmS5SW5SW12S11S10S12S14S15S17S17
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Tide / Current Tables for Barren Island, Rockaway Inlet, Jamaica Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:44 AM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:42 AM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:53 PM EDT     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-1.4-2-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.40.71.31.41.20.6-0.4-1.1-1.6-1.8-1.5-1-0.30.81.61.81.61.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.