Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Inland, NE
December 3, 2023 5:51 AM CST (11:51 UTC)
Sunrise 7:38AM Sunset 5:08PM Moonrise 11:06PM Moonset 12:41PM
Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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FXUS63 KGID 031145 AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 545 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Aviation Update
DISCUSSION
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Key Messages:
* Strong, quick-moving disturbance will bring a 20-30% chance for a dusting of snow to portions of south central Nebraska today, along with 40-45 MPH wind gusts for areas along and W of Hwy 281
* Mainly dry and warmer most of the upcoming work week with near- record to record warmth possible Wednesday into Thursday.
* With the warmer pattern will come the potential for near critical fire weather over portions of north central Kansas on Monday.
* Cooler and potentially more active late in the week and into next weekend.
Forecast Details: Similar to yesterday morning, there remains a broad upper trough over portions of the central CONUS this morning, with several compact, but potent, vorticity maxima embedded within. Yesterday's system that produced a very narrow (only 20-40 mi wide!), but "overproducing" (1-3", iso. 4-5"!) snow band across central portions of the forecast area has quickly shifted well E into Great Lakes vicinity. Our next weather maker for today is very obvious on water vapor satellite imagery with a tight spin currently over central and eastern MT. This wave is on the backside of the upper trough axis that runs along/E of MO River Valley, so it resides within seasonably fast NW upper flow. This will lead to another short- duration, mainly light precipitation event today. Currently, temperatures are in the 20s with mainly clear skies as the area is sandwiched in between departing low clds to the E, and approaching mid to high clds from the W/NW.
Obviously would like to avoid another snowfall forecast "bust" like yesterday and the guard is up, so to speak. However, it's important to keep yesterday in perspective as those types of events are incredibly difficult to pin down and the areal coverage of >1" of snow was extremely narrow. While today's system does appear to have some similarities to the one 24hrs ago (i.e. very compact, potent shortwave in strong mid-upper level flow), there are also some notable differences...mainly the fact this system is a bit later in the day and warmer. This should allow temps to warm at least into the mid 30s prior to arrival of any pcpn, perhaps even upper 30s to lower 40s. Also, the wave's motion vector relative to the orientation of max moisture/lift should keep any precipitation more than light intensity very brief (i.e.
1-2hrs) over any given location. Given this, would expect more of a mix of rain and snow today compared to yesterday, with any lgt snow mostly melting on contact. Sure, if some mod bursts develop once again today could envision some areas of a dusting and some slick spots, but think overall this would be isolated and brief.
In addition to the passing rain/snow shwrs...expect strong WNW-NW wind gusts of 40-45 MPH immediately behind any shield of pcpn...esp for W/SW of the Tri-Cities where those areas clear out the soonest/fastest. Latest NBM even gives W portions of Furnas, Phillips, and Rooks a 20-30% chance for gusts over 50 MPH. Winds should decr substantially after sunset, then more gradually through the remainder of the overnight.
Fast NW upper flow continues into Monday, albeit with the upper trough shifted even a bit further E than today. This SHOULD keep any lgt pcpn from embedded shortwave(s) mainly E/NE of the area.
The eastward shift in trough axis should also allow for warmer air to build into the area with latest NBM guidance putting highs in the low 50s NE, to low 60s SW. With the warmer temps and continued breezy and dry SW to NW flow (peak wind gusts 25-35 MPH), could see some near- critical fire weather conditions in our KS counties, as well as perhaps Furnas Co, Mon aftn. Fortunately, it appears RHs will be limiting factor as they'll remain mostly in the mid 20s to mid 30s, though will need to keep an eye on this as even drier air won't be far away to the W/SW.
After a brief dip in temps on Tue, the warmest days of the forecast look to be Wed and Thu as temps soar to 15-20 deg above normal. Temps are forecast to peak on Thu with lows at or above freezing and highs well into the 60s, which could threaten various warm min/max records. NBM 75th percentile suggests even some low 70s aren't out of the question in typical warm spots of our SW forecast area. Usually such warm weather during the cold season months comes with fire weather concerns, but fortunately, this concern is minimal at this time as winds are forecast to be seasonably light and lowest RHs remain over the High Plains.
Latest ensembles haven't changed much over the past couple of runs in that they still agree that temps will begin to cool off on Friday (though still above normal) and continue downward trend through next weekend as an upper trough shifts from the Pacific NW into the central Plains. Still a ton of variability in specifics, both in terms of run-to-run of deterministic models, but also amongst the ensembles and their respective members. In general, would expect at least some uptick in pcpn chcs associated with this upper trough, and latest forecast blend gave PoPs of 20 to 30 percent. With that said, want to remind folks not to get to hung up on or excited about any specific model run as we're just too far out in time and there's too much uncertainty to have any reasonable amount of confidence in a specific outcome.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Significant weather: Strong NW wind gusts and brief MVFR conditions midday through the afternoon.
Today: VFR with SSW to WSW winds 7-11kt this morning with incr mid to high clds. Latest guidance is pretty consistent in bringing a batch of lower clds in the 2-4K ft range and scat rain/snow shwrs with a cold front in the 16-21Z time frame. Any MVFR CIGs and/or rain/snow shwrs will quickly shift E of the terminals around 19-21Z, but as this occurs, winds will shift from W to NW and incr substantially, esp. at EAR, with sustained winds around 20kt and gusts around 35kt. Confidence: Winds - high, flt cat - medium.
Tonight: Winds will decr after sunset to 10-15kt as mid to high clds gradually clear out. Confidence: High.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 545 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Aviation Update
DISCUSSION
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Key Messages:
* Strong, quick-moving disturbance will bring a 20-30% chance for a dusting of snow to portions of south central Nebraska today, along with 40-45 MPH wind gusts for areas along and W of Hwy 281
* Mainly dry and warmer most of the upcoming work week with near- record to record warmth possible Wednesday into Thursday.
* With the warmer pattern will come the potential for near critical fire weather over portions of north central Kansas on Monday.
* Cooler and potentially more active late in the week and into next weekend.
Forecast Details: Similar to yesterday morning, there remains a broad upper trough over portions of the central CONUS this morning, with several compact, but potent, vorticity maxima embedded within. Yesterday's system that produced a very narrow (only 20-40 mi wide!), but "overproducing" (1-3", iso. 4-5"!) snow band across central portions of the forecast area has quickly shifted well E into Great Lakes vicinity. Our next weather maker for today is very obvious on water vapor satellite imagery with a tight spin currently over central and eastern MT. This wave is on the backside of the upper trough axis that runs along/E of MO River Valley, so it resides within seasonably fast NW upper flow. This will lead to another short- duration, mainly light precipitation event today. Currently, temperatures are in the 20s with mainly clear skies as the area is sandwiched in between departing low clds to the E, and approaching mid to high clds from the W/NW.
Obviously would like to avoid another snowfall forecast "bust" like yesterday and the guard is up, so to speak. However, it's important to keep yesterday in perspective as those types of events are incredibly difficult to pin down and the areal coverage of >1" of snow was extremely narrow. While today's system does appear to have some similarities to the one 24hrs ago (i.e. very compact, potent shortwave in strong mid-upper level flow), there are also some notable differences...mainly the fact this system is a bit later in the day and warmer. This should allow temps to warm at least into the mid 30s prior to arrival of any pcpn, perhaps even upper 30s to lower 40s. Also, the wave's motion vector relative to the orientation of max moisture/lift should keep any precipitation more than light intensity very brief (i.e.
1-2hrs) over any given location. Given this, would expect more of a mix of rain and snow today compared to yesterday, with any lgt snow mostly melting on contact. Sure, if some mod bursts develop once again today could envision some areas of a dusting and some slick spots, but think overall this would be isolated and brief.
In addition to the passing rain/snow shwrs...expect strong WNW-NW wind gusts of 40-45 MPH immediately behind any shield of pcpn...esp for W/SW of the Tri-Cities where those areas clear out the soonest/fastest. Latest NBM even gives W portions of Furnas, Phillips, and Rooks a 20-30% chance for gusts over 50 MPH. Winds should decr substantially after sunset, then more gradually through the remainder of the overnight.
Fast NW upper flow continues into Monday, albeit with the upper trough shifted even a bit further E than today. This SHOULD keep any lgt pcpn from embedded shortwave(s) mainly E/NE of the area.
The eastward shift in trough axis should also allow for warmer air to build into the area with latest NBM guidance putting highs in the low 50s NE, to low 60s SW. With the warmer temps and continued breezy and dry SW to NW flow (peak wind gusts 25-35 MPH), could see some near- critical fire weather conditions in our KS counties, as well as perhaps Furnas Co, Mon aftn. Fortunately, it appears RHs will be limiting factor as they'll remain mostly in the mid 20s to mid 30s, though will need to keep an eye on this as even drier air won't be far away to the W/SW.
After a brief dip in temps on Tue, the warmest days of the forecast look to be Wed and Thu as temps soar to 15-20 deg above normal. Temps are forecast to peak on Thu with lows at or above freezing and highs well into the 60s, which could threaten various warm min/max records. NBM 75th percentile suggests even some low 70s aren't out of the question in typical warm spots of our SW forecast area. Usually such warm weather during the cold season months comes with fire weather concerns, but fortunately, this concern is minimal at this time as winds are forecast to be seasonably light and lowest RHs remain over the High Plains.
Latest ensembles haven't changed much over the past couple of runs in that they still agree that temps will begin to cool off on Friday (though still above normal) and continue downward trend through next weekend as an upper trough shifts from the Pacific NW into the central Plains. Still a ton of variability in specifics, both in terms of run-to-run of deterministic models, but also amongst the ensembles and their respective members. In general, would expect at least some uptick in pcpn chcs associated with this upper trough, and latest forecast blend gave PoPs of 20 to 30 percent. With that said, want to remind folks not to get to hung up on or excited about any specific model run as we're just too far out in time and there's too much uncertainty to have any reasonable amount of confidence in a specific outcome.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Significant weather: Strong NW wind gusts and brief MVFR conditions midday through the afternoon.
Today: VFR with SSW to WSW winds 7-11kt this morning with incr mid to high clds. Latest guidance is pretty consistent in bringing a batch of lower clds in the 2-4K ft range and scat rain/snow shwrs with a cold front in the 16-21Z time frame. Any MVFR CIGs and/or rain/snow shwrs will quickly shift E of the terminals around 19-21Z, but as this occurs, winds will shift from W to NW and incr substantially, esp. at EAR, with sustained winds around 20kt and gusts around 35kt. Confidence: Winds - high, flt cat - medium.
Tonight: Winds will decr after sunset to 10-15kt as mid to high clds gradually clear out. Confidence: High.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHSI HASTINGS MUNI,NE | 11 sm | 58 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 21°F | 18°F | 86% | 29.69 |
Wind History from HSI
(wind in knots)
Grand Island, NE,
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