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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1230 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of snow showers early this afternoon with vsby locally 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

ANZ300 1230 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. The area will remain between low pressure over eastern canada and high pressure over the central states. After an upper level disturbance moves across this afternoon and evening, the high will build toward the mid atlantic and southeast states through Thursday, while a warm front passes to the north on Wednesday. A quick moving low pressure system will affect the region late Friday into Friday night, with high pressure building to the north in its wake for Saturday.

FXUS61 KOKX 281735 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1235 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
The area will remain between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure over the central states today, as an upper level disturbance moves across. High pressure will then build from the Central states toward the Mid Atlantic and Southeast states through Thursday, while a warm front passes to the north on Wednesday. A quick moving low pressure system will affect the region late Friday into Friday night, with high pressure building to the north in its wake for Saturday. A stronger low may affect the region from Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast continues to be on track with adjustments to temperature, dew points, and PoPs to reflect the most recent observations, trends, and conditions. Scattered snow showers have continued to develop with the approach of a shortwave in the embedded upper level trough that is pushing through this afternoon. These snow showers should be fairly inconsequential with perhaps a up to a light coating of snow on cooler and grassy surfaces. These snow showers are expected to move through the area over the next several hours and weaken later this afternoon and into the early evening.

Temps will max out near 40 for the NYC metro with middle to upper 30s elsewhere. W winds 15-25 mph with some gusts up to 30 mph late this afternoon with passage of the trough axis, and a few gusts 35-40 mph are possible in the metro area and across Long Island toward evening. These winds will advect in the coldest air mass of the season thus far for tonight, with low temps in the 20s throughout and wind chills in the teens.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Wed winds will back WSW as the high drifts toward the coast, while a warm front passing well NW leads to a period of clouds during the afternoon/evening mainly inland. High temps should be similar to those of today, mainly mid 30s to lower 40s.
Another cold night under mostly clear skies and diminishing winds expected for Wed night, with lows from the lower 30s in NYC to the 20s most elsewhere, to some teens in the interior valleys.

The air mass will start to moderate on Thu as SW return flow continues, with highs closer to normal under sunny skies.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The flow aloft will be somewhat flat Thursday night into Friday with a weak surface cold front passing through during Friday night. Dry at least through Friday morning. The cold front will then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some mid- level vorticity for rain Friday afternoon into night. High pressure then builds in from the north on Saturday with dry weather.

Forecast confidence then lowers Sunday into Monday with the next potential storm to impact the region. There's disagreement among the global models regarding the timing and placement of low pressure, however NBM favors the ECMWF/Canadian GDPS camp over GFS. The forecast reflects this greater support. Low pressure shifts through or nearby Sunday night/early Monday morning, potentially with another low center passing well to our north.
Overrunning precipitation could occur as early as late Saturday night, but the better precip chances appear to be more during the Sunday afternoon through early Monday period. Capped PoPs at 50% for this event given the uncertainty. It would be mainly a rain event for most spots, but wintry precip types would be possible north of the city should precipitation occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure slowly builds in from the west.

VFR through the TAF period. There is however a slight chance of snow showers/flurries with brief visibility restrictions later this afternoon primarily for KSWF and KHPN, but most terminals stand a chance. Added a brief Tempo to reflect this chance but chances of any obstructions to visibility and MVFR ceilings are low.

West winds around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt, increasing late this afternoon closer to 20kt sustained with gusts around 30kt.
Winds then diminish overnight.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts of at least 30kt for KJFK/KLGA/KEWR will be most likely during the period of 19z-23z, with a peak gust of 35kt possible.
During this same period, KTEB could occasionally gust to 30kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wed: VFR.

Thu: VFR.

Fri: VFR in the morning, MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon and night.

Sat: VFR.

Sun. Chance of rain or showers. MVFR or lower possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Previous near/short term forecast thinking remains unchanged, as a gale warning remains in effect for the ocean waters for today and most of tonight as winds gust between 35-40 kt after passage of an upper level disturbance, with the frame for strongest winds from late this afternoon into this evening. SCA also remains in effect for the remaining waters, and a few gusts to gale force may be possible on the eastern Sound and bays this evening. Ocean seas should build to 6-9 ft, and some 5-6 footers are also expected on the ern Sound, both peaking this evening.

Sub-SCA conds expected on the non ocean waters daytime Wed, and there may even be a brief lull on the ocean before WSW flow increases, with gusts over 25 kt and seas 5-6 ft especially E of Fire Island Inlet. Gusts may also reach 25 kt on the sound E of Orient Point Wed evening.

Residual 5-ft seas should last on the ocean mainly E of Fire Island Inlet into Thu morning.

A return to SCA conditions is likely Thu night thru Friday morning on the ocean waters as SW flow strengthens again ahead of an approaching frontal system. A brief period of sub-SCA conditions is possible Friday afternoon as winds and seas subside. For Friday night into Saturday, swell is expected to build and push seas back over 5 ft. There is a chance that this might not occur, which would lead to an extended period of sub advisory conditions all the way through Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY
No impacts expected with the rainfall during Friday into Friday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Jones Inlet (Point Lookout)
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Tue -- 01:25 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:41 AM EST     4.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:17 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:12 PM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jones Inlet (Point Lookout), Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Tue -- 03:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:08 PM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:14 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:16 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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