Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:29PM Friday December 13, 2019 9:11 PM EST (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 6:58PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 622 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday evening through late Saturday night...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Areas of fog late this evening and overnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain in the morning, then periods of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ300 622 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight, and passes to the north by Saturday night. High pressure builds Sunday through Sunday night. A frontal system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday. High pressure then closes out the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, NY
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location: 40.59, -73.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 140031 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight, and passes to the north by Saturday night. High pressure builds Sunday through Sunday night. A frontal system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday. High pressure then closes out the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Monitoring an area of moderate to heavy rainfall off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula moving northward. With model guidance successively increasing QPF amounts after each run, decided to increase rainfall amounts, especially between 1 am and 7 am, with storm total rainfall amounts of 1.75" to 2.25" now expected.

Rain moves in ahead of approaching trough, and could be heavy at times overnight. Any mixed precip over interior portions of southern CT (mainly the valley) has generally ended, and with it the threat of freezing rain.

As mentioned, deep moisture feed and times of strong lift will result in heavy rain at times. As the coastal front remains nearby, fog will likely develop as well under good WAA, and increasing lower level moisture.

A non diurnal trend in temps will occur.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Rain continues in the morning ahead of sfc low, and mid/upper level shortwave passing northward ahead of main trough axis. The continuous rain should give way to periods of rain by afternoon as the sfc low and front begin to creep across the area ahead of upper trough. Drier air aloft begins to move in, so the main area of rain pushes north, but periods of lighter rain or showers continue late in the afternoon and into the evening before winding down. The sfc low deepens as it heads across New England. Winds shift throughout the day, east to southeast, then to the SW and eventually west behind the low. Gusty conditions are expected at night behind this departing system.

Mile temperatures in the 50s during the day will fall back into the mid 30s to around 40 at night.

After collaboration with surrounding offices, will hold off on flood watch at this time. More about hydrologic concerns below.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Dry conditions expected to start out this period as high pressure builds in from the west. It will be breezy however, as departing low continues to strengthen, allowing the pressure gradient to increase over the region. West winds could gust 25 to 35 mph during the day. Otherwise, conditions will be near seasonable, with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

The next system to impact the forecast area comes Monday as the high pushes offshore and a warm front approaches from the southwest while at the same time, an area of low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. This low is forecast to track along the frontal boundary, moving in the vicinity of the forecast area Tuesday. Models show that the low will not be particularly strong as it heads over our region, but there could be a period of moderate precipitation Monday night associated with the approaching warm front.

Uncertainty with model solutions Monday night onward will make precipitation type difficult to forecast at this point. However, do think thermal profiles will be cold enough at the start to support all snow at the start for most places, with a quick changeover to rain along the coast by mid Monday morning. However, QPF amounts will be light at this point, so little in the way of accumulation is expected.

Despite warming aloft, there may be enough cold air in the lower levels where there may be an extended period of wintry precipitation inland, with freezing rain among the precipitation types. Again, this is 4 to 5 days out and the forecast is likely to change over the next couple of days.

Associated cold front will move through late Monday night into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday through the end of next week, bringing below normal temperatures, but dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A complex area of low pressure will impact the terminals through Saturday as a series of frontal wave moves across the area overnight into Saturday morning. The main area of low pressure will then pass to the north and west in the afternoon hours, ending a cold front through the area in the evening.

Bottom line, this is a low to moderate confidence wind forecast as multiple low centers impact the area, especially overnight into the morning. Confidence increases during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday.

Generally, looking at an E-NE flow for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals through morning. However, the eastern terminals will likely gradually veer to the E/SE. Winds speeds will be 10-15 kt, but possibly stronger at KBDR and KGON where speeds could be closer to 15-20 kt overnight before backing off after 12Z. Winds then significantly increase Saturday evening behind the cold front with W-SW winds 15-20 G25-35kt.

Widespread IFR/LIFR through much of Saturday with improvement to VFR in the evening following the cold frontal passage.

LLWS possible tonight into the morning, mainly east of the NYC terminals. Best chance will be at KGON. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday Night. Scattered showers, mainly early. Improving to VFR with W winds increasing to 15-20kt, G25-35kt. Sunday. VFR. West winds around 20kt,G25-35kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. W wind gusts diminish to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to a wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals, with a period of snow or a wintry mix at the start early Monday night. Wednesday. VFR with NW gusts 25-30kt.

MARINE. Easterly winds ahead of a front and low pressure tonight will continue. Although a few gusts to 25 kt are possible, feel they will be occasional, and not enough for SCA issuance for the non ocean waters. SCA remains in effect for the ocean for marginal winds and rough seas.

On Saturday, low pressure approaches and passes overhead resulting in a lull in winds as they turn to the SE. The winds however will then veer to the SW and W by evening, and increase quickly behind deepening low pressure to the north. Gales are expected during this time frame all waters.

Gales will continue for the ocean waters on Sunday as the pressure gradient increases due to strengthening departing low and building high to the west. There is the potential for gales over the remaining waters, but confidence is low at this point to extend the Gale Warning into Sunday. Winds begin to diminish late in the day Sunday, but should fall below SCA around daybreak Monday. The ocean waters may see SCA wind conditions once again Tuesday as a developing low move in the vicinity.

Waves on the ocean on Sunday will range 6 to 13 ft on Sunday. 5 to 8 ft waves are possible across the eastern sound, especially extreme eastern areas of the sound. Waves diminish during the day Sunday and Sunday night, falling below SCA before daybreak Monday on the eastern sound, and by late Monday morning for the ocean. Waves on the ocean build again Monday night as the frontal system and low pressure affect the waters. 5 to 8 ft waves are possible into Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY. Have seen an uptick in guidance for rainfall tonight into Saturday. 1 1/2 to 2 21/2 inches of rain is expected across the area, with local higher amounts possible. Hard to pin point areas for the heaviest rain, but feel the most likely impact is poor drainage and urban flooding. Across northeast NJ, collaborated with neighbor office, and feel most impacts remains across the Passaic river basin. However, some impact in the local HSA is possible, depending on where heaviest rain occurs.

Another significant rainfall event is possible Monday through Tuesday. 0.50" to 1.25" of liquid equivalent is possible during this timeframe. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is increasing potential for minor coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning (departures of 1 to 2 ft are needed to reach minor benchmarks). This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon.

There is a bit of uncertainty on timing of windshift from SE to SW Saturday morning, which is reflected in a sizable spread of Stevens ensemble. Forecast below is based on a blend of ETSS, ESTOFS and approximately a 75th percentile Stevens forecast.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens counties, as well as along the coast of SW CT and S Westchester due to a combo of water levels around minor flood levels and some wave actions. Localized minor flooding is likely along the most vulnerable locales of lower NY Harbor, eastern bays and north shore of LI, and along SE CT.

Along the Atlantic Ocean beach front breaking surf of 8 to 13 ft (highest eastern LI) will cause significant beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide Saturday into Saturday Night. Scattered areas of dune erosion and localized washovers are possible during the times of high tide Saturday morning into afternoon.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM EST Saturday for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM EST Saturday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EST Saturday for NYZ178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.



UPDATE . JP AVIATION . DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 15 mi31 min E 14 G 18 52°F 1016.6 hPa51°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 15 mi53 min ENE 6 G 8.9 44°F 43°F1018.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi53 min 51°F 45°F1017.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi53 min ENE 14 G 19 50°F 43°F1017.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi53 min NE 11 G 12 47°F 1017.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi41 min ENE 16 G 19 44°F 32°F44°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 22 mi53 min 46°F 44°F1017.9 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi59 min N 5.1 G 5.1
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi51 min ENE 19 G 23 44°F 3 ft44°F
44069 35 mi41 min ENE 9.7 G 12 44°F 39°F44°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 38 mi81 min ESE 18 G 21 54°F 51°F8 ft1018.1 hPa (-3.8)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi20 minE 143.00 miRain Fog/Mist53°F53°F100%1017.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi20 minNE 170.75 miRain Fog/Mist45°F42°F90%1017.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi20 minENE 82.50 miRain Fog/Mist46°F45°F96%1017.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi18 minESE 131.00 miRain Fog/Mist53°F51°F93%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4NE5NE4N5NE6NE6NE6E6NE6N4E3SE8SE8SE8E7NE6NE6NE6N7NE6NE7NE10E14
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NW16N12N15N8NW18
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NW17N12N12N9N85CalmCalmS6SE5SE3SE3CalmS5
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Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway Inlet, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:58 AM EST     4.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:42 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:35 PM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0-0.20.21.32.73.94.64.94.63.72.51.40.4-0.2-0.40.21.32.43.33.83.93.42.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:38 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.300.20.50.90.90.50-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.40.710.70.2-0.2-0.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.