Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carteret, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:46PM Sunday September 27, 2020 1:47 AM EDT (05:47 UTC) Moonrise 5:14PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1257 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Overnight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of drizzle late. Areas of fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 1257 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak area of low pressure off the mid atlantic drifts northward tonight into Sunday. High pressure over the atlantic establishes the flow for the beginning of the week. A broad slow moving frontal system will then impact the area for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carteret , NJ
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location: 40.59, -74.21     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 270531 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 131 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low passes offshore tonight through Sunday but on the larger scale the region remains on the western side of a weak high pressure area based in the Western Atlantic. A cold front approaches the area Monday and Tuesday then stalls nearby. Disturbances ride along the front before it pushes east by Thursday or Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/. Some slight adjustments were made to forecast temperatures and cloud to better match observed trends. Smoothed out the minimum temperature field to convey less spatial spread with the abundant clouds and light onshore flow mitigating radiational cooling. Forecast lows range from the low to upper 60s. Lower clouds are developing and expanding within parts of the area. Mesoscale models including the HRRR and NARRE expand the lower clouds across the entire area overnight with some fog development as well. In addition, models show some light moisture across mainly the coast towards early Sunday morning and with forecast soundings showing most moisture in the low levels, so added in areas of fog and drizzle along the coast for late tonight into early Sunday morning. Kept fog more patchy farther away from the coast.

SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. A warmer than normal Sunday is expected. Following the passage of a weakening low in the morning, the high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean becomes the dominate synoptic forcing for the Northeast. Persistent southerly winds continue to advect warm moist air into the forecast region. Could see precipitable water values around 1.5 inches which is enough for slight chance pop in the afternoon. Temperatures should reach the mid to upper 70s.

In the late afternoon and into the evening, an approaching shortwave from the Appalachian Mountains will have to be monitored. As this shortwave nears southern New York it could initiate light showers late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. Regardless muggy conditions late Sunday may lead to another round of fog. Temperatures overnight should hold in the mid 60s throughout the Long Island and Southern Connecticut.

A moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches will continue on Sunday due to a continued E-SE swell and E-SE winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A shortwave disturbance moves through the area on Monday and Monday night from the southwest ahead of an amplifying longwave trough digging into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. A large surface low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and Southeastern Canada allowing for the flow over the area to be south-southwesterly through much of the first half of the week as we will be ahead of the associated cold front. This flow will allow ample moisture to advect into the region priming the environment for the potential of rain through much of the week. The cold front associated with this surface low will push east into the area but then looks to stall somewhere in the vicinity by mid-week. This will allow for disturbances to ride along the front from southwest to northeast allowing for the potential of showers and periods of rain through much of the week.

Models vary a bit as to how the areas of vorticity interact with each other as the longwave trough slows its progression east. The thinking is that an area of vorticity digs into the Southeastern US before rounding the base of the longwave trough and pushing through the region in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. The ECMWF is a bit slower in the passage of this disturbance as the area of vorticity gets cut off from the large-scale flow for a bit on Wednesday. The GFS and CMC have similar solutions with the main disturbance passing through on Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Regardless of the timing of this disturbance, ample moisture will be present under S-SW flow and since we will be positioned downstream of the large-scale trough, disturbances will continually move through the area allowing for the chance for rain showers, some of which may be heavy, through much of the week along with some embedded thunderstorms possible.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A weak low passes offshore today, but on the larger scale the region remains on the western side of a weak high pressure area based in the Western Atlantic.

SE winds of 10 kts or less are expected through the TAF period.

In terms of category forecast, mainly IFR conditions are expected into this morning, mostly due to ceilings but also expecting some fog to form. KGON and KISP have a higher probability of getting sub-IFR visibilities.

For today, expecting a gradual lifting of the ceilings back to MVFR and then VFR in the afternoon but ceilings may very well stay MVFR to IFR for KISP and KGON. There will also be a possibility of rain showers as well mainly east of NYC terminals. IFR may return tngt.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Moderate confidence in magnitude of flight restrictions tonight. Timing of lowering flight categories and improvement today could be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Tonight. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. Slight chance of showers. Monday. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. Chance of showers, mainly during the day. Tuesday. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. A chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts around 20 kt. Wednesday. IFR/MVFR with showers likely. SW wind gusts 15-20kt day into early evening. Thursday. Chance of MVFR. Chance of showers. SW wind gusts 15-20kt day into early evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Below SCA conditions are forecast through Tuesday with S to SE winds. Winds on the ocean approach SCA criteria ahead of a cold front on Tuesday night and seas rise above SCA criteria by Wednesday. SCA conditions on the ocean waters are forecast from Tuesday night through Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this time. However, a frontal boundary may stall close to the area midweek, increasing the chance for a more significant rainfall event.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 4 mi54 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 5 mi54 min 68°F 1016.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 9 mi54 min ESE 6 G 7 69°F 1016 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 13 mi54 min 69°F 1016.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi54 min ESE 5.1 G 7 67°F 1016.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi54 min S 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 1017 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi28 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 68°F1015.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi33 min E 3.9 G 3.9 68°F 68°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi54 min SE 1 G 2.9 66°F 1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ9 mi57 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F66°F93%1016 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ18 mi73 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist61°F60°F100%1016.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi57 minVar 47.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F66°F90%1016.2 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ20 mi57 minESE 39.00 miShallow Fog68°F64°F90%1015.6 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ20 mi55 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist66°F63°F90%1016.7 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi57 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F64°F84%1016.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi57 minE 410.00 miOvercast68°F66°F96%1016.6 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi55 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist62°F60°F93%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5CalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE3E4SE7SE9E8SE7SE7SE8SE5E65E4SE4SE4E3SE43
1 day agoSW4SW5W4SW3S5W4SW6W3CalmW3SW5SW5W74SE8S8SE5SE7S5S5S6S6SW4Calm
2 days agoCalmW7CalmSW3W4CalmSW3SW3SW4W4SW6SW7SW9SW10W11SW8SW8SW8SW6W5SW6SW4CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Carteret, New Jersey
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Carteret
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Sun -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:00 PM EDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.9344.74.84.43.72.921.20.81.123.24.35.25.65.34.63.62.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current (2)
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:59 AM EDT     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:01 AM EDT     1.59 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:40 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     1.54 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1.2-1.2-1.1-0.60.41.31.61.410.3-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.111.51.51.10.6-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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