Thursday, April15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eustis, NE

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:17PM Thursday April 15, 2021 12:57 AM CDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:59AMMoonset 11:00PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eustis, NE
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location: 40.6, -100     debug


Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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FXUS63 KGID 150457 AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1157 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

DISCUSSION. (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

The area remains under weak shortwave ridging in the upper levels today, with satellite imagery the main features across the CONUS being two large low pressure systems spinning over the Great Lakes and Great Basin regions. This morning into the early afternoon hours, a pesky band of snow worked its way east into western portions of the CWA, driven by just enough lower/mid level convergence. The western and norther halves of Dawson County saw the main impact, with webcams/obs upstream showing decent rates at times, visibility reductions likely dropped down to near a mile in spots. By the time the precip moved in, temps were their way up above freezing, allowing for quick melting. Recent radar trends have shown activity waning, expect that to continue the rest of this afternoon, though some scattered flurries/sprinkles can't be totally ruled out over the next few hours. This precip and additional cloud cover has resulted in temps struggling in some spots vs the forecast, 3 PM obs are in the low-mid 40s across most of our Neb. counties, closer to 50 along/south of the NE/KS state line. At the sfc, a ridge axis extending from high pressure over south central Canada is keeping winds northerly across the CWA. Western areas having speeds around 10-15 MPH with an occasional higher gust, the further north and east you go, seeing more gusts closer to 25 MPH.

Tonight through Friday .

The main story through this time frame will be the arrival of the upper level low pressure system currently out to our west, and the increasing precipitation chances (including snow!) it will bring.

Tonight, the flow aloft remains generally zonal, turning more southwesterly during the day on Thursday as that upper level low pushes east into the Central Rockies. Kept the forecast for tonight dry, some models show the potential for a bit of light precip scooting by just our south, but at this point doesn't look to affect our area. Main change to the forecast as we get into tomorrow was to further slow the onset of preciptiation in our west. Removed PoPs from the 12-15Z period, and debated removing them from the 15-18Z period as well, but kept a small sliver of 20% chances in our far west. Models are in good agreement showing the larger scale increase in lift being focused over western NE/KS to start off Thursday, very gradually shifting east through the day. Wouldn't be too surprised to see a further 'slow down' of PoPs, some of the latest operation models struggle to bring much in even before 00Z. Will see increasing cloud cover from west to east through the day, with winds becoming more easterly ahead of the deepening sfc low over CO/NM. Speeds for most look to top out around 10-15 MPH. Confidence in high temperatures Thursday isn't the highest, due to the increasing cloud cover expected, uncertainty with precip onset, and easterly winds. Forecast highs currently range from the mid 40s west to low 50s east.

As we get into Thursday night through Friday, precipitation chances ramp and expand in coverage across the entire CWA, as larger scale lift out ahead of the system picks up and then the low itself tracks east right along the NE/KS state line. Models are in pretty good agreement showing QPF CWA-wide, though the main axis of heavier QPF falls in a NW-SE oriented area across the southern half of the CWA. Current forecast liquid amounts of 0.5" or more sit roughly along and south of a line from Loup City to York, with amounts of 0.75- 1.0" along/south of the NE/KS state line. This is not the warmest of systems, and the threat of accumulating snow still remains. Still some details to iron out with the thermal profiles (do we have accumulating snow far enough east?) . but did up the snowfall amounts a bit. Current forecast has accumulations along/west of an Ord-Kearney-Phillipsburg line, with 1-2 inches across the far western fringes of the CWA. What snow does fall will have to overcome warmer ground temps and marginal sfc temps, but rates at times could do just that. Fortunately, with the sfc low passing well south of the CWA, the winds turning more northerly with time are currently not expected to have a significant increase in speeds, but 15-20 MPH will be possible. Current forecast highs for Friday are in the lower-mid 40s, but could see at least some spots get trended further down. Just an overall gloomy day, but the moisture will be welcomed, especially across southwestern portions of the CWA.

Currently have PoPs ending at 06Z Friday night, but that end time is pretty uncertain.

This weekend .

The forecast for this weekend remains dry, but plenty of questions still remain, especially for Saturday. This storm system from Friday pushes off to the east on Saturday, but models continue to show the potential for another lobe of shortwave energy pushing south through the Plains right on its heels. There are some timing differences between models with when this next system moves into the area and whether enough moisture is available to bring additional preciptiation. Stuck with NBM PoPs for this period, but think at the very least cloudy conditions may linger through the day. Forecast highs are currently in the 40s to right around 50, winds remain northerly across the area.

More confidence in Sunday being dry, with models pushing this latest disturbance off to the southeast, bringing better chances for more sun and highs climbing further into the 50s.

Early next work week .

Unfortunately, the break in precipitation this weekend looks to be a short one, with models continuing to show the potential for yet another upper level disturbance moving south through the region. There hasn't been a lot of change in models in the grand scheme of things, showing a trough axis pushing south out of Canada, and is fairly progressive in nature. At this point the best chances for precipitation looks to be Monday night, though forecast PoPs currently linger into part of the day on Tuesday. Not much chance for warmer air to build into the area, and models show the potential for this system to be all snow. Will be interesting to see how things trend in the coming days.


AVIATION. (For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

A weak low pressure system will move out of the Rockies today and will bring MVFR ceilings and rain chances near the end of the period. Winds will gradually become easterly through the period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NE . NONE. KS . NONE.

DISCUSSION . ADP AVIATION . Beda


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lexington, Jim Kelly Field Airport, NE17 mi63 minNE 610.00 miOvercast36°F27°F68%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLXN

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