Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eustis, NE
April 25, 2024 7:19 PM CDT (00:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:40 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 9:45 PM Moonset 6:23 AM |
Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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FXUS63 KGID 252317 AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 617 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- High confidence in a widespread strong to severe thunderstorm event across much of the forecast area this evening/tonight.
Many areas will see over 1 inch of rain, with localized 2 to 3 inch amounts.
- Primary severe weather threat this evening/tonight will be golf ball sized hail and thunderstorm wind gusts to around 70 mph primarily along and south of I-80. There will also be an isolated tornado threat mainly in our southwest (Phillips, Rooks, Osborne Counties in Kansas).
- Upper low will be slow to exit the area on Friday and thus another round of severe thunderstorms are possible Friday, mainly between 11 AM and 4 PM across our east and northeastern areas, including the possibility for isolated tornadoes in addition to hail and winds.
- Expect a general lull in precipitation chances Friday night into at least the first half of the daytime Saturday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase late Saturday afternoon into the evening, with more high end severe weather possible, especially from the Tri-Cities and points to the south and southeast.
- Areas of frost are possible Sunday night, mainly to the northwest of the Tri-Cities as we cool down behind the departing storm system.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
This Evening/Tonight (Severe Weather)...
The warm front will gradually lift north and could make it into our far southwestern counties (Rooks, Osborne, Phillips) by around or just after sunset. The tornado threat will be limited to areas in close proximity to this warm front across our far southeastern zones where storms may become surface based.
Thunderstorms will quickly develop southwest of our forecast area late this afternoon and then track east northeast into our southwestern areas primarily after 7 PM. These storms will then continue to track across our forecast area bringing possible severe weather and likely heavy rain at times through the late night/early morning hours. There is some question as to where the southern most extent of the line of thunderstorms will set up. All of south central Nebraska is pretty much expected to get in on these thunderstorms tonight, but it is more questionable how far south they will extend into north central Kansas. But even Kansas rain chances are 70-80 percent with near 100 percent rain chances across south central Nebraska.
Added the possibility for locally heavy rainfall including localized flash flooding to our forecast as thunderstorms could train over the same locations tonight. Although surface based instability/CAPE is lacking, there is plenty of MUCAPE at over 2,000 J/KG ahead of these thunderstorms tonight, especially along and south of I-80. Therefore, large hail is certainly possible and can also not rule out some stronger wind gusts making it to the ground behind bowing lines of thunderstorms.
Friday (Severe Thunderstorms East and Northeast)...
The upper low is slow to exit the area and as it slows down from previous runs we have seen the SPC severe outlook expand further and further back to the west on Friday to include more of our forecast area with higher threat levels. There is a concern for tornadoes near the low across our eastern and northeastern zones as the warm front lifts north during the late morning and early afternoon hours. There will be little to no CIN in close proximity to the low, so thunderstorms could redevelop very quickly around noon or shortly thereafter. I would not be surprised to see the future severe outlooks bring the Friday tornado potential even further west into our forecast area.
Eventually the surface winds will turn southwest by later in the afternoon as the low lifts northeast and the severe weather threat will pass off to our east and northeast. Greatest severe weather threat across our northeastern zones will be between noon-4 PM.
Saturday (Another Severe Weather Threat)...
The next upper low is quick to eject into high plains by Saturday afternoon/evening. The main question will center around where the warm front sets up, but current indications are that the warm front will be located somewhere across the southern half of our forecast area. The atmosphere will again be very unstable along with strong wind shear. All forms of severe weather including tornadoes will be possible in the warm sector northward to around the warm front. Large hail will be the primary severe weather threat north of the warm front. The forecast may certainly change as this is a few days away, but keep an eye on where that warm front sets up Saturday afternoon.
Sunday into Sunday Night (Cooling back/frost?)...
We will cool down behind the departing storm system. Some showers and thunderstorms could linger into Sunday, but the main concern will be possible frost northwestern areas as we clear out Sunday night.
Monday through Wednesday (Warming back up)...
Great weather returns with most locations seeing highs back into the 70s. There are some small rain chances (20-30%) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, but not looking like a big deal at this point.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Active weather period for both Grand Island and Kearney as the first of a couple of strong upper level systems crosses the area in the next 24 hours.
Current expectations are IFR ceilings settling in for the night as showers and thunderstorms become more widespread by mid/late evening at both airports. Expect visibility reductions in rain/fog as well. The core of the heavier precipitation will fall through about 1-2 AM tonight but then diminish intensity, though linger through the overnight hours. A break in precipitation is expected through the morning hours Friday, but the upper low will trigger showers and thunderstorms (moreso at Grand Island for thunderstorms) by midday. MVFR conditions are forecast for most of the daytime hours Friday.
Strong low level jet tonight suggests some potential for non-convective low-level wind shear. However, stronger surface winds are expected to persist as well and thus have not included low-level wind shear at this time.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 617 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- High confidence in a widespread strong to severe thunderstorm event across much of the forecast area this evening/tonight.
Many areas will see over 1 inch of rain, with localized 2 to 3 inch amounts.
- Primary severe weather threat this evening/tonight will be golf ball sized hail and thunderstorm wind gusts to around 70 mph primarily along and south of I-80. There will also be an isolated tornado threat mainly in our southwest (Phillips, Rooks, Osborne Counties in Kansas).
- Upper low will be slow to exit the area on Friday and thus another round of severe thunderstorms are possible Friday, mainly between 11 AM and 4 PM across our east and northeastern areas, including the possibility for isolated tornadoes in addition to hail and winds.
- Expect a general lull in precipitation chances Friday night into at least the first half of the daytime Saturday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase late Saturday afternoon into the evening, with more high end severe weather possible, especially from the Tri-Cities and points to the south and southeast.
- Areas of frost are possible Sunday night, mainly to the northwest of the Tri-Cities as we cool down behind the departing storm system.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
This Evening/Tonight (Severe Weather)...
The warm front will gradually lift north and could make it into our far southwestern counties (Rooks, Osborne, Phillips) by around or just after sunset. The tornado threat will be limited to areas in close proximity to this warm front across our far southeastern zones where storms may become surface based.
Thunderstorms will quickly develop southwest of our forecast area late this afternoon and then track east northeast into our southwestern areas primarily after 7 PM. These storms will then continue to track across our forecast area bringing possible severe weather and likely heavy rain at times through the late night/early morning hours. There is some question as to where the southern most extent of the line of thunderstorms will set up. All of south central Nebraska is pretty much expected to get in on these thunderstorms tonight, but it is more questionable how far south they will extend into north central Kansas. But even Kansas rain chances are 70-80 percent with near 100 percent rain chances across south central Nebraska.
Added the possibility for locally heavy rainfall including localized flash flooding to our forecast as thunderstorms could train over the same locations tonight. Although surface based instability/CAPE is lacking, there is plenty of MUCAPE at over 2,000 J/KG ahead of these thunderstorms tonight, especially along and south of I-80. Therefore, large hail is certainly possible and can also not rule out some stronger wind gusts making it to the ground behind bowing lines of thunderstorms.
Friday (Severe Thunderstorms East and Northeast)...
The upper low is slow to exit the area and as it slows down from previous runs we have seen the SPC severe outlook expand further and further back to the west on Friday to include more of our forecast area with higher threat levels. There is a concern for tornadoes near the low across our eastern and northeastern zones as the warm front lifts north during the late morning and early afternoon hours. There will be little to no CIN in close proximity to the low, so thunderstorms could redevelop very quickly around noon or shortly thereafter. I would not be surprised to see the future severe outlooks bring the Friday tornado potential even further west into our forecast area.
Eventually the surface winds will turn southwest by later in the afternoon as the low lifts northeast and the severe weather threat will pass off to our east and northeast. Greatest severe weather threat across our northeastern zones will be between noon-4 PM.
Saturday (Another Severe Weather Threat)...
The next upper low is quick to eject into high plains by Saturday afternoon/evening. The main question will center around where the warm front sets up, but current indications are that the warm front will be located somewhere across the southern half of our forecast area. The atmosphere will again be very unstable along with strong wind shear. All forms of severe weather including tornadoes will be possible in the warm sector northward to around the warm front. Large hail will be the primary severe weather threat north of the warm front. The forecast may certainly change as this is a few days away, but keep an eye on where that warm front sets up Saturday afternoon.
Sunday into Sunday Night (Cooling back/frost?)...
We will cool down behind the departing storm system. Some showers and thunderstorms could linger into Sunday, but the main concern will be possible frost northwestern areas as we clear out Sunday night.
Monday through Wednesday (Warming back up)...
Great weather returns with most locations seeing highs back into the 70s. There are some small rain chances (20-30%) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, but not looking like a big deal at this point.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Active weather period for both Grand Island and Kearney as the first of a couple of strong upper level systems crosses the area in the next 24 hours.
Current expectations are IFR ceilings settling in for the night as showers and thunderstorms become more widespread by mid/late evening at both airports. Expect visibility reductions in rain/fog as well. The core of the heavier precipitation will fall through about 1-2 AM tonight but then diminish intensity, though linger through the overnight hours. A break in precipitation is expected through the morning hours Friday, but the upper low will trigger showers and thunderstorms (moreso at Grand Island for thunderstorms) by midday. MVFR conditions are forecast for most of the daytime hours Friday.
Strong low level jet tonight suggests some potential for non-convective low-level wind shear. However, stronger surface winds are expected to persist as well and thus have not included low-level wind shear at this time.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLXN JIM KELLY FIELD,NE | 18 sm | 24 min | SE 19G27 | 10 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm Lt Rain in Vicinity | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.66 |
| KCSB CAMBRIDGE MUNI,NE | 22 sm | 24 min | ESE 22G30 | 6 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm in Vicinity Mist | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 29.58 |
Grand Island, NE,
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