Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Island Park, NY
April 28, 2024 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 12:05 AM Moonset 8:42 AM |
ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1015 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms.
Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wed - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1015 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front remains nearby through the afternoon. A weak trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly building in Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night followed by another frontal system for late Tuesday. The frontal system exits the area on Wednesday as high pressure builds in for Thursday
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 281441 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1041 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front remains nearby through this afternoon. A weak trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly building in Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night followed by another frontal system for late Tuesday. The frontal system exits the area on Wednesday as high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system then approaches for Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Rain showers have ended across the region for now and clearing skies are observed on visible satellite off to the north and west. This drier air should make its way east into the afternoon, and allow temperatures to warm up nicely away from maritime influence, generally west of the Hudson. Rain chances increase once again as additional shortwave energy rides over the ridge late this afternoon and this evening. Increased PoPs to low likelies or high chance (50 to 60%) after 21Z for showers, with the possibility of a couple thunderstorms as well, especially into the Lower Hudson Valley. A few gusty downpours can't be ruled out with this activity.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track and previous discussion follows.
A warm front remains nearby through the day. SW flow should give temperatures a boost compared to recent days. There will also be some clearing late morning into the afternoon. Even with mostly cloudy skies, the air mass is much warmer with 850 mb temps 11 to 13C (compared to 3 to 6C Saturday afternoon). The spread of high temperatures has been reduced, but the NBM deterministic and MOS output still lie at or below the 25th percentile, especially for NE NJ and the NYC metro. These outputs have typically been running too cool in similar setups, so will continue to side with the NBM 50th percentile, which yields highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for NE NJ, portions of the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. Highs could end up a few degrees higher, especially in the normally warmer locations.
Onshore component of the wind across Long Island and Connecticut will prevent temperatures from rising as much, but should still reach the 60s to around 70 away from the immediate shore.
Another shortwave passes to the north late in the afternoon and evening. Some vorticity energy dives southeastward around the periphery of the high amplitude ridging aloft, helping to push a weak surface trough across the area. Several CAMs are signaling isolated-scattered convection, first across the Lower Hudson Valley just before sunset, and then potentially the rest of the area around our just after 00z. Model soundings are showing an average of 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. The NAM hints at some capping aloft, so will only mention slight chance of thunder for now. Brief downpours are possible, but no severe weather is expected out of this activity. Any convection the first half of the night quickly diminishes with dry conditions prevailing after midnight. It will be much milder with lows in the 50s to potentially low 60s in NE NJ and NYC metro.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The high amplitude middle and upper level ridging will continue over the eastern seaboard on Monday. The passage of the weak surface trough will leave behind a NW-N flow and a bit deeper mixing on Monday. Weak high pressure will remain over the region. There is still uncertainty with how high max temperatures will reach mainly due to timing of a back door front and any lingering cloud cover. The deeper mixing and NW flow should allow for temperatures to reach summerlike levels based on conditions being favorable for quick warming during the first half of the day. Models also tend to run too cool in early season warmth, similar to this setup. The NBM deterministic and MOS guidance continues to run close to the 25th percentile.
Given the aforementioned setup, have gone close to the NBM 50th percentile resulting in highs in the upper 70s and low 80s across CT, Lower Hudson Valley, and Long Island. Highs in NE NJ and the NYC metro are generally in the middle 80s. The potential continues to be there for temperatures to reach the upper 80s and possibly make a run at 90 in NE NJ potentially at Central Park. See climate section for records for April 29th.
The back door cold front moves through Monday evening into Monday night from northeast to southwest. Easterly flow develops which could set the stage for a few showers, but for now will leave the forecast mainly dry. Think low cloud development is more probable especially as the front works its way east of the area.
The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on Tuesday as a shortwave axis approaches from the west. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front to our west Tuesday and then slowly slide east across the region Tuesday night. Chances for showers begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. There may even be a few thunderstorms with instability aloft. Not anticipating strong convection at this time with the stable surface and easterly flow. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler ranging from the upper 50s and low 60s east to the upper 60s and lower 70s west.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*Key Points*
*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period followed by a slight warmup for the week's end into next weekend.
*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.
Decent model agreement on a shortwave heading east of the forecast area on Wednesday AM as the trough axis shifts offshore. Upper ridging then builds back into the north east becoming a bit more amplified by the weekend. At the surface, weak sfc low and attendant fronts continue to head offshore on Wednesday. Shower chances remain for at least the first half of the day until the aforementioned trough axis clears the area.
Clouds will be slow to clear, but should become partly cloudy everywhere by late afternoon.
Surface high pressure then returns for Thursday and Friday, and it should remain mostly dry during this period under the large scale subsidence. Another upper low then ejects out of the Northern Plains and heads into Canada late Friday into Saturday.
An accompanying frontal system with this low then impacts the area late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and possibly some thunder.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weak warm front will dissipate over or move north of the terminals this morning, with a weak trough approaching this evening and crossing through overnight.
AM MVFR cigs will give way to VFR from w to e btwn 15 to 17z.
Potential for another round of showers, with a low chance of thunder for KSWF, during evening push. Timing could be as early as 21z for NW terminals. Slight chance of thunder for NYC/NJ metro terminals this eve, but confidence is too low to explicitly put in TAFs at this point.
SW winds increase to 7 to 10 kt late morning, backing to S/SW for coastal terminals this afternoon with sea breeze. Winds veering SW and weaken this evening, becoming light W/NW late tonight with trough passage.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improvement to VFR may be off by an hour or so. Timing of showers this evening may be an hour or two off. Slight chance of thunder, focused around 23-02z this evening. S seabreeze of 10 to 15 kt likely for KJFK btwn 19z and 23z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Tonight: SHRA threat ending by 06z. VFR with a light W/NW flow.
Patchy MVFR fog possible towards morning push.
Monday: Patchy early AM MVFR, then VFR. NW/N winds under 10 kt AM, shifting to E/SE winds in the aft/eve. Slight chance of PM shra/tsra.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Light winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through middle to late next week under a weak pressure gradient regime.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for April 29th
EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017
*Also occurred in previous years
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1041 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front remains nearby through this afternoon. A weak trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly building in Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night followed by another frontal system for late Tuesday. The frontal system exits the area on Wednesday as high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system then approaches for Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Rain showers have ended across the region for now and clearing skies are observed on visible satellite off to the north and west. This drier air should make its way east into the afternoon, and allow temperatures to warm up nicely away from maritime influence, generally west of the Hudson. Rain chances increase once again as additional shortwave energy rides over the ridge late this afternoon and this evening. Increased PoPs to low likelies or high chance (50 to 60%) after 21Z for showers, with the possibility of a couple thunderstorms as well, especially into the Lower Hudson Valley. A few gusty downpours can't be ruled out with this activity.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track and previous discussion follows.
A warm front remains nearby through the day. SW flow should give temperatures a boost compared to recent days. There will also be some clearing late morning into the afternoon. Even with mostly cloudy skies, the air mass is much warmer with 850 mb temps 11 to 13C (compared to 3 to 6C Saturday afternoon). The spread of high temperatures has been reduced, but the NBM deterministic and MOS output still lie at or below the 25th percentile, especially for NE NJ and the NYC metro. These outputs have typically been running too cool in similar setups, so will continue to side with the NBM 50th percentile, which yields highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for NE NJ, portions of the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. Highs could end up a few degrees higher, especially in the normally warmer locations.
Onshore component of the wind across Long Island and Connecticut will prevent temperatures from rising as much, but should still reach the 60s to around 70 away from the immediate shore.
Another shortwave passes to the north late in the afternoon and evening. Some vorticity energy dives southeastward around the periphery of the high amplitude ridging aloft, helping to push a weak surface trough across the area. Several CAMs are signaling isolated-scattered convection, first across the Lower Hudson Valley just before sunset, and then potentially the rest of the area around our just after 00z. Model soundings are showing an average of 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. The NAM hints at some capping aloft, so will only mention slight chance of thunder for now. Brief downpours are possible, but no severe weather is expected out of this activity. Any convection the first half of the night quickly diminishes with dry conditions prevailing after midnight. It will be much milder with lows in the 50s to potentially low 60s in NE NJ and NYC metro.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The high amplitude middle and upper level ridging will continue over the eastern seaboard on Monday. The passage of the weak surface trough will leave behind a NW-N flow and a bit deeper mixing on Monday. Weak high pressure will remain over the region. There is still uncertainty with how high max temperatures will reach mainly due to timing of a back door front and any lingering cloud cover. The deeper mixing and NW flow should allow for temperatures to reach summerlike levels based on conditions being favorable for quick warming during the first half of the day. Models also tend to run too cool in early season warmth, similar to this setup. The NBM deterministic and MOS guidance continues to run close to the 25th percentile.
Given the aforementioned setup, have gone close to the NBM 50th percentile resulting in highs in the upper 70s and low 80s across CT, Lower Hudson Valley, and Long Island. Highs in NE NJ and the NYC metro are generally in the middle 80s. The potential continues to be there for temperatures to reach the upper 80s and possibly make a run at 90 in NE NJ potentially at Central Park. See climate section for records for April 29th.
The back door cold front moves through Monday evening into Monday night from northeast to southwest. Easterly flow develops which could set the stage for a few showers, but for now will leave the forecast mainly dry. Think low cloud development is more probable especially as the front works its way east of the area.
The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on Tuesday as a shortwave axis approaches from the west. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front to our west Tuesday and then slowly slide east across the region Tuesday night. Chances for showers begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. There may even be a few thunderstorms with instability aloft. Not anticipating strong convection at this time with the stable surface and easterly flow. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler ranging from the upper 50s and low 60s east to the upper 60s and lower 70s west.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*Key Points*
*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period followed by a slight warmup for the week's end into next weekend.
*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.
Decent model agreement on a shortwave heading east of the forecast area on Wednesday AM as the trough axis shifts offshore. Upper ridging then builds back into the north east becoming a bit more amplified by the weekend. At the surface, weak sfc low and attendant fronts continue to head offshore on Wednesday. Shower chances remain for at least the first half of the day until the aforementioned trough axis clears the area.
Clouds will be slow to clear, but should become partly cloudy everywhere by late afternoon.
Surface high pressure then returns for Thursday and Friday, and it should remain mostly dry during this period under the large scale subsidence. Another upper low then ejects out of the Northern Plains and heads into Canada late Friday into Saturday.
An accompanying frontal system with this low then impacts the area late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and possibly some thunder.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weak warm front will dissipate over or move north of the terminals this morning, with a weak trough approaching this evening and crossing through overnight.
AM MVFR cigs will give way to VFR from w to e btwn 15 to 17z.
Potential for another round of showers, with a low chance of thunder for KSWF, during evening push. Timing could be as early as 21z for NW terminals. Slight chance of thunder for NYC/NJ metro terminals this eve, but confidence is too low to explicitly put in TAFs at this point.
SW winds increase to 7 to 10 kt late morning, backing to S/SW for coastal terminals this afternoon with sea breeze. Winds veering SW and weaken this evening, becoming light W/NW late tonight with trough passage.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improvement to VFR may be off by an hour or so. Timing of showers this evening may be an hour or two off. Slight chance of thunder, focused around 23-02z this evening. S seabreeze of 10 to 15 kt likely for KJFK btwn 19z and 23z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Tonight: SHRA threat ending by 06z. VFR with a light W/NW flow.
Patchy MVFR fog possible towards morning push.
Monday: Patchy early AM MVFR, then VFR. NW/N winds under 10 kt AM, shifting to E/SE winds in the aft/eve. Slight chance of PM shra/tsra.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Light winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through middle to late next week under a weak pressure gradient regime.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for April 29th
EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017
*Also occurred in previous years
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 16 mi | 38 min | 0G | 55°F | 51°F | 30.16 | 53°F | |
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 16 mi | 50 min | W 2.9G | 59°F | 30.15 | |||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 20 mi | 38 min | S 3.9 | 58°F | 30.12 | 51°F | ||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 21 mi | 50 min | 61°F | 51°F | 30.10 | |||
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 21 mi | 50 min | W 1.9G | 58°F | 53°F | 30.17 | ||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 22 mi | 50 min | SE 4.1G | 55°F | 30.15 | |||
| MHRN6 | 27 mi | 50 min | W 2.9G | |||||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 35 mi | 38 min | SSW 5.8G | 50°F | 48°F | 30.16 | 49°F | |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 47 mi | 50 min | S 5.1G | 53°F | 30.11 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 7 sm | 16 min | SSW 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 52°F | 68% | 30.14 | |
| KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 16 sm | 14 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 54°F | 72% | 30.13 | |
| KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 17 sm | 16 min | var 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 50°F | 60% | 30.13 | |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 20 sm | 11 min | S 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 52°F | 64% | 30.15 |
Long Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 11:53 AM EDT 3.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 PM EDT 0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 11:53 AM EDT 3.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 PM EDT 0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Long Beach, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.3 |
| 1 am |
| 3.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 3.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.1 |
Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:41 PM EDT 0.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:41 PM EDT 0.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -0.5 |
| 4 am |
| -0.6 |
| 5 am |
| -0.4 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Upton, NY,
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