Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Island Park, NY

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Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 12:27 PM EDT (16:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 6:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1033 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1033 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front and the remnant low of barry then approach and slowly move through the region tonight and Thursday. High pressure will then remain centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak cold front moves slowly through the area Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Island Park, NY
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location: 40.6, -73.65     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171505
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1105 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
A cold front and the remnant low of barry then approach and
slowly move through the region tonight and Thursday. High
pressure will then remain centered over the southeast into the
weekend. Another weak cold front moves slowly through the area
Saturday night. A stronger cold front approaches and moves
through on Monday.

Near term through tonight
Updated to post a heat advisory for northeastern new jersey, as
temperatures now forecast in the mid 90s will yield heat indices
between 100 and 105 this afternoon into the evening. Conditions
may be close for the nyc area, but with drier air expected to
mix lower dew points to the surface at peak heating, not enough
confidence exists that these conditions will be widespread.

Regardless, expect uncomfortable conditions for today. Previous
discussion below remains valid.

Warm front has largely moved east of the area, with dew points
now reaching uncomfortable levels in the 70s, and in some
locations above 75 degrees f. Model forecasts now showing brief
ridging ahead of the remnants of t.C. Barry, with a dry slot
working in this afternoon. It is possible that thunderstorm
activity may briefly be suppressed outside of any boundaries
(including the thermal trough to the north and west of the city
and any sea breezes). For any thunderstorms that can develop,
this drier air may enhance any wind gusts that develop. It is
also possible that drier air mixes to the surface, briefly
allowing dew points to lower across the area, before moisture
quickly increases as the remnants of t.C. Barry draw closer.

Regardless, at least portions of the day will feature
uncomfortable heat and humidity.

Deterministic guidance now suggests even greater moisture levels
as barry approaches, with pwat values ranging from 2.25-2.40 as
the remnants move through. Much of the heavy rainfall will come
in the evening while instability remains, with convection
enhancing rainfall rates. The slight enhancement to flow as the
system moves through, dry subcloud layers and precipitation
loading should all act to enhance the potential for damaging
wind gusts, with outflow boundaries then initiating new
activity. SPC has placed our area into a slight risk for severe
weather given this potential.

Additionally, pwats of 2+ inches, a weakly sheared environment,
an enhanced SW flow at h85 and increased convergence along a
cold front dropping southward into the area could be enough for
some training of storms resulting in the potential for flash
flooding. FFG values across interior portions of the lower hud
valley and ct appear to be too high for widespread issues, but
the aforementioned ingredients are enough to warrant an urban
flash flood threat. Have left long island and coastal ct out for
now with guidance indicating a weakening of the activity as the
convection moves east of nyc. Soundings are also indicating the
potential for buoyant parcels decreases after 03z or so
bringing an end to tstms. While moderate to occasionally heavy
rainfall will likely continue overnight, the flash flood threat
would not be as high, thus confidence is lower here. Day shift
may have to expand the watch if confidence increases later
today.

Temperatures are tricky with partly sunny skies expected today.

However, any breaks will allow for strong heating, thus expect
highs of mid to upper 80s outside of the metro area, where lower
to mid 90s will be common. Heat index values will generally be
in the lower to mid 90s, close to 100 in the urban corridor of
ne nj. Muggy conditions will continue tonight as lows only fall
into the 70s, and dew points remain mainly in the 70s as well.

There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches today.

Short term Thursday
The remnant low of barry is forecast to be near montauk by 12z
thu bringing the end of the widespread heavy rainfall potential
to an end. However, a lee trough may trigger additional sct
convection across western portions of the forecast area thu
aftn. A weakly sheared environment will remain with the
potential for heavy downpours with pwats remaining elevated. May
need to extend the ffa depending on how much rainfall is
received today. Abundant cloud cover will hold temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s at most locations although it will remain
quite humid.

There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Low pressure moves farther out to sea Thursday night, resulting in
diminishing rain chances during this time period. Drier weather is
expected by sunrise.

The main story in the long term then becomes the heat for Friday
through Sunday as high pressure builds southwest of the region.

As high pressure settles southwest of the region, heights aloft
build along with surface ridging. The a southwest flow will usher in
much warmer air, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 90s for
the urban corridor of NE nj, lower 90s for the city and lower hudson
valley, and 85-90 for most of LI and ct. With dew points forecast to
be in the lower 70s, maximum heat indices will average in the upper
90s to around 100 for all but ct and most of li.

The warmest day of the weekend will be Saturday, with highs around
100 for NE nj, and some locations within the city, and 90s
elsewhere. Heat index values will likely reach at least advisory
levels everywhere, and a good portion of the forecast area could
potentially reach warning levels. Maximum heat index values reach at
least 100 or more across most of the cwa, with metro nj, approaching
hi values of 110.

A weak cold front is forecast to move through late Saturday night,
but this will do little to send any relief from the heat.

Temperatures are still forecast to reach near 100 once again for
some areas on Sunday, but for now will go with highs mostly in the
mid to upper 90s. Some areas could reach heat warning levels once
again, and most areas would probably reach advisory criteria.

A stronger cold front and wave of low pressure moves into the area
on Monday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs on
Monday will be in the in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Any left over precipitation should end late Monday night with drier
conditions on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler
than on Monday.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
A warm and humid airmass will remain in place as a weak low
moves into the area late this afternoon into tonight. A
backdoor cold front moves into the region late tonight and
toward Thursday morning.

Vfr until late this afternoon. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be developing late in the day and into the
evening with MVFR to locally ifr conditions. Some thunderstorms
may produce heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

Widespread MVFR to locally ifr conditions remain late tonight
with showers.

Coastal sea breezes likely this afternoon, otherwise west to
southwest wind increase to 10 to 15 kt. Locally higher gusts
possible in scattered strong thunderstorms this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi58 min Calm G 1 87°F 70°F1014.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi38 min S 9.7 G 12 78°F 77°F2 ft1014 hPa76°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi43 min S 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 71°F73°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 21 mi58 min 86°F 73°F1013.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi58 min SE 6 G 7 84°F 80°F1014.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi58 min SSE 9.9 G 12 84°F 1013.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 25 mi43 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 80°F 73°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi58 min 1013.9 hPa
44069 31 mi58 min SW 12 G 14 78°F 81°F75°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi38 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 74°F2 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.5)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi58 min SSW 7 G 9.9 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY8 mi37 minS 98.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F78°F73%1014.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi35 minS 910.00 miFair87°F75°F70%1013.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY17 mi37 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy93°F72°F50%1013.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi37 minSW 69.00 miFair91°F73°F56%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S12S14S15S17S17
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1 day agoSW7S12S10S15S13S12S14S11S10--SW10SW11W4SW5CalmN5CalmN5CalmCalmS5SW5SW12S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Long Island, New York
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Long Beach
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Wed -- 03:08 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:19 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:09 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.30.4-00.20.91.82.73.43.83.73.12.21.40.70.30.51.32.33.34.14.64.64

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:35 AM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.200.40.90.90.60.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.20.710.70.30.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.