Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:18PM Monday October 14, 2019 7:42 AM EDT (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 711 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W early this afternoon, then becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of rain early this morning.
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 711 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure will pass just southeast of long island this morning and eventually into the gulf of maine this afternoon into tonight. A cold front will move across the waters tonight with high pressure building in thereafter through Tuesday. Deepening low pressure will move across the area Wednesday, tracking across the canadian maritimes late in the week. High pressure builds next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Island Park, NY
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location: 40.6, -73.65     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 141139
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
739 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass just southeast of long island this
morning and eventually into the gulf of maine this afternoon into
tonight. A cold front will move across the area tonight with
high pressure building in thereafter through Tuesday. Deepening
low pressure will move across the area Wednesday, tracking
across the canadian maritimes late in the week. High pressure
builds next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Upper level jet streak exits to the northeast today along with
the weak surface low. The low will be moving from just southeast
of long island to eventually the gulf of maine by tonight.

Rainfall is expected to end early this morning with a gradual
decrease in clouds from west to east as flow aloft becomes
quasi-zonal.

There will be another cold front approaching late in the day but
this will be weak as the parent low will be filling during the
day with an increase in its central pressure. The overall
westerly flow through the atmosphere will make moisture quite
limited with the front.

Therefore, continue to have a decrease in clouds today into this
evening. Went with warmer side of guidance and slightly
increased across northeast nj, nyc and lower hudson valley with
high temperatures. The highs used originated from a blend of ecs
and gmos. Highs forecast range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Quasi-zonal flow remains tonight into Tuesday but becomes more
sw late Tuesday, which will be in advance of an approaching
upper level trough.

The aforementioned cold front will be moving across tonight but
with the lack of moisture, still expecting a lack of clouds
tonight. Surface winds are expected to shift from SW to NW and
will be quite light across the interior, which will help the
interior radiatively cool more. Used ecs for low temperatures
tonight to depict a more vast range of lows and going with
relatively cooler guidance for interior locations. Lows forecast
range from the upper 30s to lower 50s.

For Tuesday, the NW flow will allow the coastal locations to be
just as warm and in some cases a little warmer as the interior
locations with that downslope component to the wind. Sunny skies
are expected with high pressure directly building into the
region. The center of the high passes nearby during Tuesday
afternoon. Used a blend of ecs and gmos for high temperatures,
ranging from the low to mid 60s for most places.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A progressive amplified pattern will dominate this long term
timeframe as vigorous shortwave over british columbia province this
morning digs and tracks across the great lakes region to start this
time period (Tuesday night and Wednesday). Reasonable global model
agreement is noted in tracking this upper low across new england
Wednesday night through Thursday, with ridge building next weekend.

Larger trough over the western states then tracks across the rockies
toward the mid west by late next weekend.

At the surface, high pressure pushes east Tuesday night, giving way
to low pressure and associated cold front that moves across the
great lakes ahead of strengthening upper trough. A coastal low
develops over the carolinas, tracking off the mid atlantic coast by
Wednesday morning. This low deepens as it passes just south,
becoming dominate low as parent low moves across lake ontario
Wednesday night. Norlun trough extends NW from coastal low to
parent inland low Wednesday night early Thursday. This deepening
coastal low then tracks toward the canadian maritimes, with
positional and strength differences noted in the global model suite
late week. High pressure builds next weekend.

Rain will move in ahead of this potent system, with deep lift and
moisture available for moderate to possible heavy rain. A few
hundred joules of elevated CAPE could result in a rumble of thunder
or two. Timing of precipitation looks to be Wednesday morning,
through the afternoon, tapering off in the evening (west to east).

Significant rainfall is expected in a relatively short period of
time, so please see hydrology section for more on this potential
hazard.

A few lingering showers, mainly to the north, are possible
Wednesday night into Thursday in cyclonic flow.

Se winds will increase ahead of this system Wednesday, with strong
gusty winds continuing behind the system Wednesday night and
Thursday. Gusty winds linger into Friday before diminishing ahead of
the building high.

Temperatures near seasonal norms are expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday before falling below Thursday and Friday, in caa.

Temperatures will moderate next weekend thanks to building ridge.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
High pressure builds in today, then a cold front passes through
this evening.

Low endVFR to MVFR conditions (with isolated ifr or lower conditions)
are moving through terminals this morning as an area of low
pressure passes south of the long island. Conditions will
improve mid morning for the metro terminals and late this
morning for eastern terminals as the low heads away from the
area. However, there is some uncertainty as to when conditions
may improve, possibly being off by an hour or two.

Light and variable winds will become W this morning and then
shift to the SW at 5 to 10 kt this afternoon.

Outlook for 12z Tuesday through Friday
Tuesday Vfr.

Wednesday MVFR ifr likely developing in rain. Chc SE gusts
around 25 kt.

Thursday Vfr. NW gusts 25 to 35kt.

Friday Vfr. NW winds, diminishing gusts.

Marine
The pressure gradient remains relatively weak during the short
term through Tuesday. Conditions are expected to remain below
sca across all local waters through Tuesday.

As high pressure departs to the east, SE winds increase across the
waters Wednesday as low pressure approaches. Shifting winds are
expected late in the day into the evening as deepening low pressure
passes. Gusty westerly winds are expected Wednesday night and
Thursday (likely gales). Winds do diminish into Friday, but remain
rather gusty as high pressure slowly builds behind this deepening
low over the canadian maritimes.

Seas build ahead of the system, and remain elevated behind the
system, with eastern waters remaining quite rough due to westerly
fetch.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts for any rainfall that occurs into early
this morning.

A significant rainfall of 1 1 2 to 2 inches is likely Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with locally higher amounts possible. The bulk of
the rainfall is currently expected Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Urban, poor drainage, and low lying flooding is
expected. There is a possibility of flash flooding with a few of the
smaller, and fast responding, rivers and streams approaching
bankfull.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm pw
near term... Jm pw
short term... Jm
long term... Pw
aviation... Jp
marine... Jm pw
hydrology... Jm pw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 64°F1015.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi42 min E 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 65°F1014.7 hPa (+0.0)58°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi57 min S 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 32°F56°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 21 mi54 min 59°F 64°F1015 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi54 min Calm G 1 60°F 62°F1015.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi54 min SSE 1 G 1.9 60°F 1014.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 25 mi57 min S 1.9 G 5.8 58°F 55°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi60 min 58°F 64°F1015 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi54 min W 4.1 G 5.1
44069 31 mi72 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 58°F 58°F56°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi52 min ENE 9.7 G 12 61°F 63°F3 ft1014.2 hPa (+0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi60 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 63°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY8 mi51 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F55°F96%1015.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi49 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F54°F93%1015 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY17 mi51 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F53°F81%1014.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi51 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F55°F87%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N11N9N7N85CalmS4S7S8S3S7S6S8S7S7S4S6S6CalmCalmCalmCalmE6
1 day agoN7N9N8N8N7N7N5N54SW6S4S3S8SW10W10W8W8NW10NW10NW11NW10NW5NW6NW6
2 days agoN15
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Long Island, New York
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:06 AM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:25 PM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.90.20.10.51.42.63.54.24.54.23.42.41.40.70.20.312.133.84.24.13.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:43 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:01 PM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.30.710.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.20.10.20.610.80.3-0-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.