Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fire Island, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upstream convection tracking across upstate NY and eastern PA will continue to dissipate while approaching the area. The airmass over the region is much drier and more stable. Latest CAMs continue to show what is left of this activity skirting northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley between 10 pm and midnight. It is seeming less likely for any thunderstorms and will more likely be showers for what makes it.

The cold front is forecast to track through the area from about 08 to 12z (4am to 8 am) from west to east. A subtle wind shift to the west should occur just ahead of the boundary, with a more noticeable wind shift to the NW Wednesday morning. A mild night overall is expected due to the late arrival of the front and some cloud cover. Lows will average above normal with mainly 50s, and near 60 across the metro.

On Wednesday noticeably drier air rushes in immediately behind the cold front on a NW wind. Expect plenty of sunshine and NW winds in the 10 to 15, 10 to 20 mph range throughout the morning with gusts around 25 mph, perhaps briefly to 30 mph until mid day or shortly thereafter. For more on the dry conditions see the Fire Wx. section. Then later in the afternoon the winds diminish as high pressure continues to draw closer and the pressure gradient begins to weaken. On a NW wind this time of year it usually means above normal temperatures as the winds will downslope across the interior. Most spots should get to around 70, with some middle 70s across the more metropolitan areas by the afternoon. Thus, temperatures should get a good 5 to 8 degrees above normal in most places.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
With a dry cP air mass settling directly over the area Wednesday night temperatures should cool quite a bit, more so across the non- urban locations. With mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions temperatures should cool primarily into the 40s, with lower 50s across the metro which is right around normal for this time of year.

High pressure begins to get further east during the day Thursday.
Light and variable winds during the morning become more onshore out of the SE towards late morning and afternoon. Temperatures should reach their max by the start of the afternoon, especially further east. Then temperatures should trail off across coastal sections more so during the afternoon as the onshore flow gets established.
Temperatures should max out around 70 well inland, but lower half of the 60s and upper 50s further east.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The long term period starts off Thursday night with low pressure moving across the Great Lakes region along with an upper level trough approaching the region. Its associated cold front will approach from the south and west, reaching portions of the forecast area Friday morning. Expect some chance POPs Thursday night into early Friday morning as moisture increase along with some lift associated with the front. Generally looking at just some light rain showers, however can not rule out an isolated rumble of thunder.

There should be a brief break in the precip Friday morning, however chances increase once again Friday afternoon into Saturday as the upper trough and cold front approach and move over the region. This should bring a better chance of showers, along with a chance of thunder for much of the region. Some of the forecast guidance is also showing the potential for a frontal wave of low pressure developing along the boundary as it moves east, producing additional rainfall into the late weekend. QPF outside any thunder should largely remain under an inch, though the slower progression of the entire system could enhance totals just a bit further.

There continues to be considerable uncertainty in the forecast from late weekend into early next week with whether or not the associated upper low is able able to push east or get cut off from the flow and meander nearby for several days. Will continue to keep at least chance POPs in the forecast for now through much of the extended, however it will be possible that part of next week will be dry.

Friday will be the warmest day in the long term with highs in the upper 70s and middle 80s away from the maritime influence. Closer to the coast, highs will only be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. With unsettled conditions possible, expect high temperatures to be in the 60s and lower 70s for the remainder of the long term.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An approaching cold front will pass through the area from approximately 4 to 8 am.

VFR for the most part, though there is a chance that a weakening line of showers/thunderstorms ahead of the front may make it as far east as KSWF with MVFR cond and brief gusty winds. However, thunderstorms are seeming less likely as they work into a more stable airmass across the area.

S/SW winds at 10-15 kt G20-25kt, strongest along the coast, will gradually veer and diminish ahead of the approaching cold front, shifting to the W-NW by daybreak Wednesday. Expect gusts around 20kt to carry into the afternoon, although vertical wind profiles do begin to weaken. However, we are often more efficient with deeper mixing and stronger winds in W/NW flow, especially of late.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts become more occasional overnight.

Wind shift with the cold front and onset of strengthening NW flow may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Chance of showers after midnight with MVFR cond possible.

Friday: Chance showers/tstms with MVFR or lower cond from mid afternoon into the night. S winds G20kt at the NYC metros and along the coast.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a tstm with MVFR or lower cond expected.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions across all waters tonight in a S/SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The front then passes through in the morning with gusts still above 25 kt and elevated seas on the ocean. SCA will linger for a time on the ocean Wednesday for marginal conditions. A period of sub-advisory conditions then follows for all waters for much of Weds afternoon through Thursday night as a high pressure ridge shifts through the region.

Strengthening southerly flow associated with an approaching frontal system could introduce a period of SCA conditions on the ocean beginning Friday, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft.
Winds lighten Friday night, but elevated seas may linger into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
A wetting rain is unlikely for the vast majority of the area tonight, despite the fact that a cold front swings through early in the morning. Behind the front NW winds pick up and will likely gust to around 25 mph at times throughout the morning.
The winds are then likely to decrease during the afternoon.
Minimum RH levels are expected to be 20 to 30 percent resulting in another elevated risk of fire spread. Special Weather Statements have been collaborated with state agencies and will be issued for all of our NY, NJ, and CT zones on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomically high tides coupled with a S/SW flow allows water levels to approach minor coastal flood thresholds in the most vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield, CT during this evening's high tide cycle. No headlines have been issued as the expectation is for water levels to fall just short of coastal flood benchmarks.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.