Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 2:27 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1101 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Overnight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain and drizzle late this evening. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1101 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure will continue moving south and east of long island tonight. High pressure will build in from northern new england late tonight through Friday night. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, with weak low pressure passing to the south this weekend. A cold front could move through the area late next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 170311 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1111 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will continue moving south and east of Long Island tonight. High pressure will build in from Northern New England late tonight through Friday night. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, with weak low pressure passing to the south this weekend. A cold front could move through the area late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
The forecast is generally on track with only minor changes needed.

The upper low and energy will begin to shift further south tonight. The two systems will become vertically- stacked, which will help bring an even quicker diminishing trend to the light rain/drizzle. The activity should come to an end by 06z with dry conditions returning for the rest of the night. Low clouds will likely persist through day break, but could see some improvement from NE to SW as surface high pressure over Southeast Canada builds southward over New England. This surface ridging should also help lessen the lower level moisture and aid in the end of any drizzle. Lows tonight will be slightly above normal in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
The upper low and associated trough continue moving further offshore Friday morning. A ridge briefly builds aloft, with its axis shifting towards the New England coast in the afternoon and evening. A shortwave within a broader upper level trough over western North America will swing across the Great Lakes in the afternoon and evening. The shortwave should swing across New England Friday night.

Surface high pressure over the area will result in dry conditions on Friday. Drier air should allow for at least partly sunny skies. While there may be some brief clearing across the area, the approaching shortwave should be enough to bring in middle and upper level cloud cover late in the day. Highs on Friday will be much warmer than the past few days with temperatures in the lower 70s. A NE flow will gradually shift towards the E, potentially SE near the coast. This should temper highs a bit along the immediate coast, but given some sunshine temperatures should be able to reach 70 degrees before any onshore flow develops.

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected Friday night. Model consensus is indicating some slight probabilities for showers across far western portions of Orange County late Friday night into Saturday morning. This is due to the approaching shortwave.
However, the trend in the guidance over the last few days is to weaken any precip that may approach due to encountering the subsidence from the lingering surface high. The high res NAM shows this well with the bulk of any simulated reflectivity drying up as it nears the region. Feel the 20 PoP is warranted over western Orange given the very low chance for measurable rain. Lows will be in the 50s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure nosing down from the northeast will generally remain in control through the middle of next week. Low pressure that previously brought rain to the area will continue to spin in place well offshore to the southeast, with another area of weak low pressure passing well south this weekend. Aloft, after a shortwave moves through on Saturday, heights generally rise aloft with ridging remaining over the northeast through the middle of next week. An upper level cutoff low looks to remain well south of the area through this time as well. Towards the end of next week a surface low will pass well to the north with associated upper level trough and cold front moving through the area.

In terms of weather, a pretty quiet stretch is expected. There is a slight chance of some showers on Saturday, mainly for far western locations, as the aforementioned weak low approaches and passes to the south. Thereafter through Thursday, there will be plenty of sun with a warming trend. Highs Monday through Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s for most. The next chance of rain will likely be with the passing cold front sometime Wednesday night into Thursday.
Depending on exactly when the front moves through, there is the potential for thunderstorms, mainly for western portions of the area.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure south of Long Island will slowly track southeast and weaken through the night. Meanwhile weak high pressure builds in from the north.

MVFR to to low end VFR conditions across the terminals.
Conditions are improving faster than forecast, but there is still some uncertainty as MVFR ceilings may move back in to terminals where conditions previously became VFR. This is due to an eastward progression of clouds where the back edge stretches from northeast New Jersey northeast into northeast Massachusetts. As the low continues its push to the southeast, the clouds will also push southeast later tonight.

N-NE winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt along the coast will continue to diminish this evening. Gusts at many terminals have become more occasional or have already ceased, but may continue occasionally through 06Z. Winds speeds are then expected to remain around 10 kt or less as winds shift to the SE during the early to mid afternoon time frame Friday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of VFR conditions may occur earlier than forecast by +/- a couple of hours. There is a very low chance that they continue through 12Z Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers, mainly N and W of the city terminals.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions continue on the waters into this evening. Winds on the LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor should weaken below 25 kt this evening. With winds still remaining up along the coast, have extended the SCA for these waters through 10 pm. On the ocean, 25-30 kt gusts will continue this evening, but begin diminishing overnight as low pressure moves well offshore. Ocean seas will remain elevated tonight through Friday night. Seas west of Fire Island Inlet should subside below 5 ft by Friday evening, but linger near 5 ft further east. Have extended the SCA east of Fire Island Inlet through Friday night.

Thereafter, with a weak pressure gradient in place over the area, winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the end of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the end of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ355.

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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
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Thu -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:37 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:26 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Point o' Woods
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Thu -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:19 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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